*********** feared dead in captivity is still alive, Russia says
*********** feared dead in captivity is still alive, Russia says
EPA
Prisoners of war are protected from all acts of violence or intimidation by the Geneva convention (file image)
The *********** government has been told by Moscow that one of its citizens in Russian captivity is still alive.
Oscar Jenkins, a 32-year-old teacher, was captured last year while fighting for Ukraine.
“The *********** government has received confirmation from Russia that Oscar Jenkins is alive and in custody,” Foreign Minster Penny Wong said in a statement on Wednesday.
Earlier, there were reports that Mr Jenkins had been killed while in captivity, with the *********** government citing “grave concerns” for his ********.
“We still hold serious concerns for Mr Jenkins as a prisoner of war,” Wong’s statement added.
It also called on Russia to release him and reiterated Australia’s stance that the Russian Federation was obligated to treat all prisoners of war in accordance with international humanitarian law.
Prisoners of war are protected from all acts of violence or intimidation by the Geneva convention.
Earlier, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had said that the government was “urgently seeking” confirmation that Mr Jenkins was alive.
Ukraine’s ambassador to Australia was quoted by the *********** Broadcasting Corporation as saying that it was “good news” but called on Moscow to provide “video proof” of his well being.
Mr Jenkins is thought to be the first *********** to have been held as a prisoner of war while fighting for Ukraine.
A video surfaced in December last year showing Mr Jenkins, with his hands tied, being hit in the face and questioned by Russian forces.
He explains he is a teacher and also a soldier who lives in both Australia and Ukraine.
They ask him if he is being paid to fight in Ukraine.
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ASX 200 closes within 1 per cent of record high on rate cut hopes
ASX 200 closes within 1 per cent of record high on rate cut hopes
The Aussie sharemarket soared on Wednesday as markets factor in the likelihood of a rate cut in February.
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Diver Uncovers Massive Haul of Ancient Roman Coins — It May Lead to a Hidden Shipwreck
Diver Uncovers Massive Haul of Ancient Roman Coins — It May Lead to a Hidden Shipwreck
A diver just stumbled upon a bounty of ancient coins off the coast of Italy.
Cultural ministers believe the that find could point toward an unknown lost shipwreck in the region.
The bronze and copper coins were originally minted in Rome.
A diver stumbled across the find of a lifetime off the coast of Sardinia when a stray shiny item loosened itself from the sea grass below. That metallic sheen turned out to herald a bounty ofmore than 30,000 bronze and copper coins minted in Rome during the fourth century.
“The treasure found in the waters of Arzachena represents one of the most important discoveries of numismatic finds in recent years,” Luigi La Rocca, director general of archaeology, fine arts, and landscape for the region, says in a translated statement from the Italian culture ministry.
Near the town of Arzachena, divers were trolling an area of sandy clearing near the beach that was also surrounded by seagrass. That one coin soon yielded tens of thousands of others, all in an “excellent and rare state of preservation” and dating back to between 324 and 340 AD. The ministry says that, thanks to the weight of the coins, there could be at least 30,000 of them and as many as 50,000. That would make this one of the largest ancient coin finds in the past few decades.
And, if we’re lucky, it may even point to a completely undiscovered hidden shipwreck.
The underwater makeup of the region has the potential to preserve a lost shipwreck, which could explain the finding of so many coins in one spot. While there is no news yet of a wreck being found, experts remain hopeful that one could turn up after further investigation.
Right now, we will have to content ourselves with the excitement of the huge bounty of coins discovered littering the seafloor. The follis coins—found in both bronze and copper—were used first by the Romans and then later by the Byzantine Empire.
When the divers first saw the coins, they contacted authorities and art protection squad drivers joined with the ministry’s undersea archaeology department, firefighter divers, and border police divers to dig into the area. Alongside the coins, the divers also located walls of narrow-necked ***** with two handles, which also helped point experts towards the idea that a shipwreck may be nearby.
“(The finding) highlights the richness and importance of the archaeological heritage that our seabed, traversed by men and goods since the earliest times, still guards and preserves,” La Rocca said.
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Transgender Navy commander reacts to Trump’s ban on trans service members – CNN
Transgender Navy commander reacts to Trump’s ban on trans service members – CNN
Transgender Navy commander reacts to Trump’s ban on trans service members CNNPrioritizing Military Excellence and Readiness The White HouseTrump signs an order to revise the Pentagon’s policy on transgender troops The Associated PressHow Trump’s new executive orders could affect the military CBS News
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Escalating anti-Semitic attacks target Jewish hubs
Escalating anti-Semitic attacks target Jewish hubs
A TIMELINE OF MAJOR ANTI-SEMITIC INCIDENTS
* November 21: Anti-Semitic and anti-Israel graffiti was sprayed and a car was set on fire in an eastern Sydney suburb with a large Jewish population. Three men have been charged
* December 6: The Adass Israel Synagogue in south Melbourne was burned down in an attack Prime Minister Anthony Albanese labelled an act of terrorism
* December 11: Graffiti including “Kill Israiel” (sic) was sprayed on buildings and footpaths and the perpetrators’ car set on fire in a Sydney suburb with a large Jewish community. A 34-year-old woman has been charged
* January 6: Anti-Semitic slogans were painted on a car and sprayed on nearby buildings and footpaths in Sydney’s east
* January 10: Swastikas were painted on the Southern Sydney Synagogue in an act the NSW premier labelled “disgusting and disgraceful”
* January 11: A synagogue in Sydney’s inner west was spray-painted with red swastikas and vandals attempted to set it on fire
* January 16: Police charged a man who allegedly used social media to make death threats against members of the Jewish community
* January 17: A house that formerly belonged to Executive Council of *********** Jewry co-chief executive Alex Ryvchin was targeted in an arson and graffiti attack
*January 21: A childcare centre near the Maroubra Synagogue in Sydney’s east was set on fire with an anti-Semitic slogan sprayed on a wall
* January 29: Police announce a caravan filled with explosives and a note containing addresses of Jewish people and institutions was found 10 days earlier in northwest Sydney.
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More cold is coming. Community leaders preparing students for freezing temperatures
More cold is coming. Community leaders preparing students for freezing temperatures
Northwest Florida was hit by a cold front last week that brought record-setting levels of snowfall and ice, leading to businesses closing and locals, mostly, being forced to stay in their homes.
Another storm is set to hit the sunshine state next week, and while it won’t compare to the historic cold we saw earlier this month, local leaders want to be sure children in our area stay warm.
Florida Rep. Michelle Salzman is working with Jubilee Church, Sunshine Health and Lincoln Park Elementary School to host a clothing drive on Friday to protect its students from the cold. Salzman and Tim Fox, lead pastor of Jubilee Church, discussed a similar event prior to last week’s cold weather, and after seeing how hard last week’s weather hit some members of the community, Salzman and Fox decided to carry out the event as soon as possible.
“The realization hit us that there’s still a need,” Fox said.
Florida’s next possible storm: Major cross-country storm will travel nearly 2,600 miles by weekend. See Florida impacts
Every child at Lincoln Park Elementary School − which has over 200 students − will receive a coat and a pair of gloves, but Salzman and Fox want to ensure they each get socks and a hat as well. Splash City Adventures plans to give each family a free pass to their theme park on Pensacola Boulevard as well.
“We wanted to make an impact but we didn’t want to go to the elementary school and only give a few people the coat,” Salzman said. “We wanted to make sure that if we did it, all kids could be participating … we’re just trying to create love on these kids because they don’t get it that much.”
At noon, Principal Jobenna Lawson-Sellers will hand out the supplies to Lincoln Park Elementary students in the school gym.
Salzman is asking potential donors to contribute by providing a coat or cash to purchase other clothing needs. If you would like to contribute, you can donate online through Salzman’s Facebook page or drop off coats at 10296 Vintage Drive.
“For us… being able to provide simple things like a warm coat, that’s just something that I believe is the minimum of what we could do,” Fox said. “Anything we can do to ensure that a child does not get cold, we’re going to do it.”
The upcoming winter storm is currently forecast to bring rain and thunderstorms to North and Central Florida on Friday and Saturday. Florida’s current spring-like weather won’t see any impacts beyond a small cold front that is bringing milder temperatures to Northwest Florida Tuesday.
Fox told the News Journal that what he saw last week prompted him to act before the next wave of cold weather hits.
“The reality of where we’re at, in terms of just families struggling, many of them (are) struggling to meet all of the bills that have come across their mailbox,” Fox continued. “Then to be hit with potentially high power bills, having to stock up on food and all the (responses) when there’s a disaster coming … it puts more pressure on you.”
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Florida Rep. Michelle Salzman, Jubilee Church to host clothes drive
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2025 Senior Bowl Takeaways: Jalen Milroe, Jaxson Dart Show Inconsistencies on Day 1 – Bleacher Report
2025 Senior Bowl Takeaways: Jalen Milroe, Jaxson Dart Show Inconsistencies on Day 1 – Bleacher Report
2025 Senior Bowl Takeaways: Jalen Milroe, Jaxson Dart Show Inconsistencies on Day 1 Bleacher Report2025 Senior Bowl Day 1 standouts: TE Elijah Arroyo sizzles; Jack Bech, Jalen Royals star at WR NFL.com10 NFL draft questions on the Senior Bowl: Is Jaxson Dart ready to be QB3? How deep is the D-line class? ESPN10 players to watch during the 2025 Reese’s Senior Bowl clevelandbrowns.comQuarterbacks take center stage at Senior Bowl Steelers.com
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MEPs commemorate Holocaust Remembrance Day | News
MEPs commemorate Holocaust Remembrance Day | News
European Parliament President Roberta Metsola will open the solemn sitting to mark the International Holocaust Remembrance Day (27 January) at 12.00. It will be followed by a musical performance of Pál Hermann’s concerto.
Corrie Hermann will then address MEPs and speak about the story of her father, Hungarian-born cellist and composer Pál Hermann whom the Nazis murdered in 1944. The music performance will feature his original Gagliano cello.
After MEPs have observed a minute’s silence, the ceremony will end with a musical performance of “Kaddish” by Maurice Ravel.
27 January marks the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz.
You can watch the sitting live here.
Corrie and Pál Hermann
Born on 27 March 1902 in Budapest, Pál Hermann was a student of Béla Bartók and considered one of the best cellists of his era. He moved to Berlin in the 1920s and gave concerts all over Europe on his Gagliano cello. In 1933, Hermann fled to Belgium and France. Upon his arrest by the Nazis in Toulouse in 1944, he managed to throw a note from the train, asking for the Gagliano to be saved from the Nazis. The note was found and a friend of Hermann’s cycled 100 kilometres to rescue the instrument. He broke into Hermann’s house, replaced the Gagliano with a lesser instrument and escaped with the Gagliano strapped onto his back.
Hermann was murdered by the Nazis in a camp in the Baltics in 1944. His cello was rediscovered 80 years later being played by a competitor in the Queen Elisabeth Competition. Pál Hermann’s daughter, Corrie (Cornelia) Hermann, now aged 92, will tell her father’s story, his tragic fate and his work during the commemorative plenary session.
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Jason Stuart Wansbrough: Suspended jail time for hit and run that left man lying on road with skull fractures
Jason Stuart Wansbrough: Suspended jail time for hit and run that left man lying on road with skull fractures
An Albany man who showed a “disregard for life, health, and safety” when he attempted to cover up a hit and run that left a man with a skull fracture and a brain bleed has avoided immediate prison.
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MacDill airman killed in deadly Tampa crime spree
MacDill airman killed in deadly Tampa crime spree
TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — One of the victims of a violent crime spree in Tampa Sunday night has been identified as a member of the U.S. Air Force.
MacDill Air Force Base said on Jan. 26, Tech Sgt. Richard Padilla, 37, was killed in a hit-and-run while walking along Interbay Boulevard.
Who is Jeremiah Bailey, the suspect in violent Tampa crime spree?
That same night, Jeremiah Bailey, 48, had been fleeing from a shooting scene while driving in circles at MacDill Avenue and Interbay Boulevard.
Tampa police said Bailey intentionally struck Padilla and another pedestrian, 43-year-old Jesse Rickett, with his car. Rickett was hospitalized in critical condition, but Padilla died at the scene.
U.S. Air Force Tech. Sgt. Richard Padilla, a security forces craftsman assigned to the 24th Special Operations Wing, Detachment 1, also known as Deployment Cell or “D-Cell”, directs Airmen during a training exercise at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska, Jan. 7, 2023. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Patrick Sullivan)
“Our thoughts are with the families of all those impacted by this tragic series of events,” Chief Lee Bercaw said. “This individual, who already had a violent history, displayed a blatant disregard for human life, resulting in this devastating outcome.”
Bailey was later gunned down in a shootout with Tampa police on I-275, which also injured three officers.
Jeremiah Bailey, 48, (Credit: Tampa Police Department)
MacDill Air Force Base said Padilla served with the 24th Rapid Deployment Squadron of the 24th Special Operations Wing prior to his death.
“We are deeply saddened by the sudden and tragic loss of Richie. He embodied what it meant to be a warrior,” said Lt. Col. Michael Biederman, 24th RDS commander. “Our deepest sympathies are with Richie’s family and friends as we all mourn the loss of our teammate, mentor, and friend.”
The base has made counseling services available for those who knew Padilla. The MacDill Military Family Life Counselors can be called at 813-816-3061 or 813-210-7822.
“Team MacDill is mourning the loss of another teammate taken from us too soon,” said Col. Ed Szczepanik, 6th Air Refueling Wing commander. “All of our thoughts are with Tech. Sgt. Padilla’s family and friends. Support agencies, chaplains, first sergeants and leadership teams are here for all who need assistance as we navigate this time of sorrow.”
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to WFLA.
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Secretary Rubio’s Call with Rwandan President Kagame – Department of State
Secretary Rubio’s Call with Rwandan President Kagame – Department of State
Secretary Rubio’s Call with Rwandan President Kagame Department of StateRwanda’s Kagame says he agrees with US on need for ceasefire in Congo ReutersDR Congo live news: Rwanda-backed M23 rebels tighten grip on Goma Al Jazeera EnglishThe situation concerning the Democratic Republic of the Congo – Security Council, 9853rd meeting Welcome to the United NationsUNHCR gravely concerned by worsening violence and humanitarian crisis in eastern DR Congo UNHCR
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Cuisineer Review | TheXboxHub | N4G
Cuisineer Review | TheXboxHub | N4G
“The London-based (the ***) indie games publisher Marvelous Europe, Torrance-based (CA, the US) video games company XSEED Games, and Singapore-based indie games developer BattleBrew Productions, are today super thrilled and proud to announce that their food-focused action roguelike “Cuisineer”, is coming to consoles (PS5, Xbox Series X, and the Nintendo Switch) on January 28th next year (as announced during today’s Nintendo Indie World showcase).” – Jonas Ek, TGG.
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Nation 'playing catch-up' in preparedness for war
Nation 'playing catch-up' in preparedness for war
Conflicts such as the war in Ukraine demonstrate Australia’s need to ensure it is prepared and resourced to defend itself in wartime, a Navy rear admiral says.
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US Supreme Court rejects challenge to Mississippi lifetime ban on voting by felons
US Supreme Court rejects challenge to Mississippi lifetime ban on voting by felons
By Andrew Chung
(Reuters) -The U.S. Supreme Court declined on Monday to hear a challenge to Mississippi’s lifetime ban on voting by people convicted of a wide range of felonies, a policy adopted in 1890 during the Jim Crow era that stands as one of the toughest such restrictions in the nation.
The justices turned away an appeal of a lower court’s decision rejecting a lawsuit that claimed that the ban – a provision of the Mississippi constitution that applies even after a sentence has been completed – violates the U.S. Constitution’s 14th Amendment promise of equal protection and Eighth Amendment bar on cruel and unusual punishments.
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The class action suit was brought in 2018 by six Mississippi men – including white and ****** plaintiffs – who lost the right to vote even though they have completed their sentences for various felonies, including grand larceny and receiving stolen property.
The case centers on Section 241 of the Mississippi Constitution, which denies people who have been convicted of a range of felonies the right to vote for life. The range of crimes include *******, *****, bribery, theft, forgery and arson, but lawyers for the plaintiffs have said it applies regardless of the seriousness of the felony, even “writing a bad check for $100 or stealing $250 worth of timber.”
Section 241 was adopted by a state constitutional convention with the racist intent to undermine the electoral power of ****** people after they gained the right to vote following the 1861-1865 U.S. Civil War that ended slavery in states including Mississippi. The provision removed crimes thought to be “white crimes” and added those thought to be “****** crimes,” according to court papers.
Following the end of the post-Civil War reconstruction *******, policies of racial segregation and disenfranchisement of ****** people were broadly enforced by white leaders in numerous U.S. states including Mississippi using what were called Jim Crow laws.
More than 58% of currently disenfranchised Mississippi residents who have completed their sentences are ******, according to lawyers for the plaintiffs, adding that Mississippi and Virginia are the only two states that continue to “permanently disenfranchise first-time offenders who were convicted of non-violent and non-voting-related felonies.” ****** people make up 38% of the state’s population, according to U.S. census statistics.
A three-judge panel of the New Orleans-based 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which hears cases from Mississippi, in 2023 ruled 2-1 in favor of the claim by the plaintiffs that the ban violates the Eighth Amendment.
“Mississippi stands as an outlier among its sister states, bucking a clear and consistent trend in our nation against permanent disenfranchisement,” Judge James Dennis wrote in the opinion.
In 2024, however, the full 5th Circuit reconsidered the case and voted 13-6 to uphold the ban.
The Supreme Court in 2023 declined to hear a separate constitutional challenge to Section 241, prompting a dissent by liberal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, who wrote that the remaining crimes from the provision’s “pernicious origin still work the very harm the 1890 convention intended – denying ****** Mississippians the vote.”
A convicted felon’s voting rights can be restored in Mississippi only by a two-thirds vote of the state legislature – something that happened just 18 times between 2013 and 2018, according to the plaintiffs, or a pardon by the governor.
(Reporting by Andrew Chung in New York; Editing by Will Dunham)
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Defense secretary revokes security detail and clearance for Trump critic Gen. Mark Milley, orders investigation – CNN
Defense secretary revokes security detail and clearance for Trump critic Gen. Mark Milley, orders investigation – CNN
Defense secretary revokes security detail and clearance for Trump critic Gen. Mark Milley, orders investigation CNNPentagon pulling Gen. Milley’s security detail and clearance ‘immediately,’ may face demotion in retirement Fox NewsPentagon Removes General Milley’s Security Detail and Revokes His Clearance The New York TimesHegseth takes actions against Trump foe Mark Milley The Washington Post
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Scottie Scheffler says ‘stupid’ hand injury will not impact game
Scottie Scheffler says ‘stupid’ hand injury will not impact game
World number one Scottie Scheffler is not concerned the “stupid” hand injury he sustained on Christmas Day will have a negative effect on his game.
The 28-year-old had the most successful year of his career in 2024, winning the Masters, the Players Championship and Olympic gold in Paris.
The American required surgery after badly cutting the palm of his right hand on a broken wine glass.
Scheffler has recovered from the operation and is set to play competitively for the first time this year in this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Asked if he is anxious about a possible impact from the surgery, he said: “Not at all.
“It’s one of those deals where immediately after it happened I was mad at myself because I was like ‘gosh, that’s so stupid’, but you just don’t think about it when you’re in the moment,” the two-time Masters champion added.
“It really wasn’t terrible, but I knew I kind of messed something up just because the way my hand wasn’t really moving much and if I did move it, it hurt pretty badly. So I kind of knew something was up.”
Scheffler missed two events because of the injury but has no plans to add any extra tournaments to his calendar to make up for it.
“Missing those two events is not fun; I enjoy playing them,” he said.
“Just because I missed two I don’t want to change the flow and cadence to my schedule. If I feel like I want to add one to get some extra reps in, I will.”
Scheffler finished joint-sixth at last year’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which was reduced to three rounds because of adverse weather.
The American, who is paired with amateur David Abeles, tees off at 17:01 (GMT) on Thursday at Spyglass Hill.
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Women’s Ashes: West *********** leg-spinner Alana King could cap breakout Ashes in historic Test
Women’s Ashes: West *********** leg-spinner Alana King could cap breakout Ashes in historic Test
These have been Alana King’s Ashes. Now the West *********** leg-spinner looks set to be given a chance to round out her best series yet in a historic Test match at the MCG.
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S&P 500: Test of Selling Climax Low Could Set Up Next Rally
S&P 500: Test of Selling Climax Low Could Set Up Next Rally
Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 1/27/25 at 6012.28.
Our gain 1/1/24 to 12/31/24 = 29.28%; SPX gain 23.67%
Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%
Monitoring purposes : Long on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
We ended up 29.28% for 2024; SPX up 23.67% for the year. Yesterday’s gap down produced a spike in volume and is most likely a “Selling Climax” (Selling Climax usually ends the decline (see volume window)). It’s common for “selling climaxes” to be tested and the test should be on a lighter volume to keep the bullish setup.
Yesterday’s decline pushed the TRIN close to 1.19 and tick to -448 producing a bullish combination suggesting a low will form as early as yesterday to as late as tomorrow. Today’s light volume rally into yesterday’s down gap could produce resistance and in turn produce a test of yesterday’s “Selling Climax” low. Test or no test another rally is coming that may hit new highs. Long SPX on 1/27/25 at 6012.28.
The chart is updated, and yesterday’s commentary still stands, “The above chart shows two indicators that have triggered bullish signs; one for short term and one for intermediate term. The bottom window is the 5-day average of the Advance/Decline (last week we showed the 3-day average). Short-term bullish signs are triggered when this indicator reaches .7 and then rallies to 3.00 in 30 days or less. The last signal did it in 6 days. We noted the previous signal in shaded pink. The top window is the McClellan Oscillator which gives intermediate term signals.
A bullish signal is triggered when this indicator reaches below -300 and then rallies to +200 in 30 days or less. We noted the previous times this indicator was triggered with Red dotted lines (selling climax) to blue dotted lines (a sign of strength). Both indicators were triggered, suggesting a bull market is possible this year.” Added to the above, the previous three signals marked lows that produced good rallies in the coming weeks.
We updated this chart from yesterday; yesterday’s commentary still stands, “The second window down from the top is the weekly Inflation/deflation ratio going back to mid-2015. Next window higher is the weekly RSI for this ratio. Bullish signal are triggered when the weekly RSI for this ratio hits below 30 and turns up (which it did in late December).
We noted those times with blue lines. Signals of this type last several months and some longer. The current signal is less than a month old. The current bullish signal could last into July of this year.”
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Man Pushed in Front of Subway Train
Man Pushed in Front of Subway Train
Joe Lynskey is recounting the moment he was pushed in front of an oncoming subway train in New York City. He was waiting for the train to pull into the station when a man shoved Lynskey into the tracks. He was under the train for four minutes. The 45-year-old victim suffered a fractured skull, four broken ribs, and a ruptured spleen. Police arrested Kamel Hawkins who has pleaded not guilty to second-degree attempted *******.
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DeepSeek Won’t Cause a Bear Market – But It Could Reshape AI’s Profitability
DeepSeek Won’t Cause a Bear Market – But It Could Reshape AI’s Profitability
DeepSeek won’t cause the to tighten monetary policy. It won’t cause a financial crisis or a credit crunch. Of course, it might have a negative wealth effect on Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:) shareholders.
******** firm DeepSeek has taken the evolution of AI to a new level with its cheaper Language Learning Model (LLM). This is not a “****** swan” event for the stock market, but it is a “gray swan,” with potential positives and negatives.
Although DeepSeek disrupts the AI status quo, it should speed up the proliferation of AI and the realization of associated productivity gains. DeepSeek also could affect the U.S. Federal Reserve’s considerations.
Beyond this, the U.S. stock market’s historically high valuation doesn’t worry us. Even if the Mag-7’s P/Es take a hit owing to DeepSeek, we expect that the P/Es of the other 493 stocks in the could go higher as earnings growth should support valuations.
The digital revolution is evolving: DeepSeek is a ******** AI lab that has rocked the world of artificial intelligence (AI) by developing a competitive LLM that reportedly outperforms ChatGPT but was developed at a fraction of the cost, with much less time required to “teach” the program. It also functions with cheaper and less powerful Nvidia (NVDA +8.93%) GPU chips. And it is available on an open-source basis.
Will DeepSeek cause a bear market?
Since the late 1920s, there have been 22 bear markets in the S&P 500. Over the same *******, there have been 17 recessions. In other words, more often than not, bear markets are caused by recessions. And more often than not, bear markets and recessions are caused by the tightening of monetary policy.
DeepSeek won’t cause the Fed to tighten monetary policy. It won’t cause a financial crisis or a credit crunch. It won’t cause a recession even if it causes American AI companies to reduce their capital spending on AI infrastructure. Of course, it might have a negative wealth effect on Nvidia’s shareholders.
We view DeepSeek as a “gray swan” event, a spinoff from the term “****** swan” event. ****** swan events are unexpected developments with mostly negative consequences. They’ve been known to cause recessions and bear markets, but not all ****** swans have had negative consequences. Likewise, gray swans are unexpected events, but they have both negative and positive consequences.
The negative consequence of DeepSeek is that it challenges the business models of American companies that expected to use their exclusive access to Nvidia’s most expensive and powerful chips to dominate and profit from the AI revolution. The good news is that they should be able to follow DeepSeek’s lead in lowering the cost of AI infrastructure spending.
That should offset some of the potential revenues lost by having to compete with DeepSeek and other AI startups. They will still profit from AI by converting more of their pre-AI products into AI-driven ones. Also good: More competition in the AI economy will give business and individual consumers more bang for their AI bucks.
The digital revolution is all about data processing, i.e., processing more data faster and faster at lower and lower costs. From this perspective, AI is an evolutionary development in the digital revolution. So much data can be processed that we need LLMs to make some sense of it all and use it to increase productivity.
Making Sense of the Market
Will all the AI hype that has sent the Magnificent Seven’s valuations soaring prove to be a dot-com bubble 2.0?
Could investors’ negative reactions to DeepSeek be linked to the S&P 500’s valuation? We’ve been fielding concerns that the stock market is overvalued for at least the past two years. Indeed, valuation multiples tend to ride the escalator up during economic expansions and the elevator down during recessions. Rising bond yields have raised the question of whether the S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio has peaked at its current level of 22, suggesting a turning point for U.S. stocks.
We haven’t been very concerned by the stock market’s valuation, and we still are not. We believe the relationship between the S&P 500 forward earnings yield and the (TMUBMUSD10Y 4.526%) is returning to its historical norm, as opposed to much of the 21st century, when the Federal Reserve depressed rates and bought bonds. Strong expected earnings growth is propelling valuations to justifiable levels. Furthermore, any decrease in the “Magnificent-Seven’s” P/Es may be made up by rising valuations in the rest of the stock market, i.e., the S&P 493.
Consider the following:
(1) Fed’s stock valuation model
From 1985 through 2000, the S&P 500 forward earnings yield and the 10-year Treasury note yield tracked one another relatively closely. They diverged through 2020, mostly because the bond yield fell relative to the forward earnings yield. Bond prices were boosted by the Fed’s low interest rates and quantitative easing policies during most of that *******. The two yields are now equal for the first time since 2022, meaning it is more likely that stocks are fairly valued relative to bonds than overvalued.
(2) Valuation versus earnings
Valuations typically fall when something in the financial markets breaks because of the Fed’s tightening monetary policy, leading to a credit crunch in the real economy. The U.S. economy skirted that scenario during the recent round of tightening. But the advent of DeepSeek raises the question of whether the large sums being dished out by the Magnificent Seven on data centers, semiconductor chips, and AI models can generate an adequate return on investment. Will all the AI hype that has sent Magnificent Seven valuations soaring prove to be a dot-com bubble 2.0?
The profit margins of the Magnificent Seven will likely benefit from lower costs as they use AI more efficiently and cost effectively internally.
We believe that earnings growth will be the primary driver of stock-market returns through the end of the decade. Analysts currently expect S&P 500 companies to grow their earnings at an annual rate of 17.9% over the next five years. While not dissimilar from what was expected in 2000, it is also at a cheaper multiple and in line with prepandemic expectations. Investors tend to pay higher prices for stocks with sustained high earnings growth.
The profit margins of the Magnificent Seven will likely benefit from lower costs as they use AI more efficiently and effectively internally, which may net out losses on large capital expenditures. Even if the Magnificent Seven’s collective forward profit margin falls from its current 25.5%, the rest of the S&P 500 will likely benefit from cheaper AI tools and more productive employees, boosting their collective forward profit margin from the current 12.0%. That could help maintain the overall market’s valuation, as the forward P/E of the S&P 493 would likely rise even if the valuation of the Magnificent Seven falls.
If workers can become more productive faster and companies can cut costs quicker, then the Fed has a huge disinflationary tailwind to consider.
Will the Fed officials care about the DeepSeek-triggered stock market hullabaloo? Perhaps. On one hand, if stock prices fall enough, they could be concerned about a declining wealth effect weighing on consumer spending. We don’t believe this is likely, but it is possible.
The Fed may be more interested in how the vastly cheaper AI model will help permeate AI throughout the economy. If workers can become more productive faster and companies can cut costs quicker, then the Fed has a huge disinflationary tailwind to consider. Fed officials may even say that it means the neutral rate of interest is lower, emboldening them to cut the federal-funds rate further.
We, on the other hand, believe that AI-boosted productivity growth would boost real GDP growth and keep inflation subdued. This would imply that interest rates don’t need to be lowered. If the Fed lowers interest rates in this scenario, it risks causing a speculative bubble in risk assets.
So the outlook is either the Roaring 2020s scenario (to which we ascribe 55% subjective odds) or a market meltup a la the 1990s (25% odds). We don’t see the DeepSeek development as a reason to increase our odds of a Stagflationary 1970s scenario (20% odds). At worst, it is a gray swan, not a ****** one.
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Trump signs order to defund gender transitions for under 19s – Al Jazeera English
Trump signs order to defund gender transitions for under 19s – Al Jazeera English
Trump signs order to defund gender transitions for under 19s Al Jazeera EnglishTrump Signs Order Restricting Gender-Affirming Treatments for Minors The New York TimesTrump signs executive orders cutting funding for child gender transitions, ridding US military of ‘transgender ideology’ The Times of IsraelTrump Signs Executive Order to Restrict Medical Treatments for Transgender Children, Teens The Wall Street Journal
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Brightstar starts hauling golden WA ore towards production
Brightstar starts hauling golden WA ore towards production
Brightstar Resources is motoring down the road to production, as it starts hauling gold-bearing ore from its Laverton hub in Western Australia to the nearby Laverton mill as part of an ore ***** agreement with renowned goldie Genesis Minerals.
Brightstar says it is transporting ore from its Laverton mining hub for initial processing at the mill. The first gold pour is due in March.
The company has existing stockpiles containing an estimated 9000 ounces of gold available for haulage.
Management originated an ore purchase agreement with Genesis, which allows for up to 500,000 tonnes of ore to be processed this year and in the first three months of 2026.
Ore is expected to be sourced from run-of-mill from its operating Second Fortune underground mine, existing mined stockpiles from its Lord Byron open pit operation at Jasper Hills, along with ore anticipated to be mined from its Fish underground project that is in the development stage.
The Second Fortune mine contains a mineral resource of 165,000t at a stellar grade of 10.9 grams per tonne (g/t) gold for 58,000 ounces. Stockpiles at Lord Byron comprise about 200,000t going at 1g/t gold for 6000 ounces of the precious yellow metal.
Development of the Fish underground mine is well-placed to contribute ore for processing, with material expected to be accessed within six weeks of cutting the underground portal and developing the mine decline.
Fish has a JORC-compliant resource estimate of 225,000t at a solid 5.7g/t gold for 41,000 ounces.
The company released a scoping study in March last year revealing a plan to mine 188,000t of ore within the measured and indicated categories of the resource, at an expected 4.4g/t to produce 26,000 gold ounces over 13 months.
The commencement of haulage to Mt Morgans is a major milestone for Brightstar following months of mine development, approvals and commercial work streams. We are now well positioned to see a return on this time and capital invested, particularly at a time of record A$ gold prices.
Rovira said the introduction of a second underground mine at the Jasper Hills gold project will add additional high-grade ore into its production profile and diversify the company’s production across the Laverton hub.
Recent drilling at Second Fortune returned results from mineralised narrow veins containing high-grade gold from relatively shallow depths, such as 2.76 metres at 7.37g/t from 96.15m, including 0.33m going 52.3g/t gold from the same depth, a 0.42m hit at 24.8g/t from 63.27m and a 0.3m slice grading 39.8g/t gold from 57.2m.
The continued rise in the *********** dollar gold price has astounded many pundits, with many now predicting further rises throughout 2025.
The latest gold price of US$2761 (A$4420) per ounce is making gold production very profitable for the bulk of companies with a worthwhile resource in their portfolio.
Brightstar is the envy of many of its competitors with excellent gold grades at its underground projects, putting it well-placed to cash in on the gangbuster gold price available.
Being hedge-free, it will derive the full benefit from today’s high prices. The company is also in the envious position of having no debt.
Management believe the cash-flow it expects to generate from the ore purchase agreement will provide a significant platform for company growth. It also has an aggressive 55,000m extensional and infill drill program planned and is expecting for release an upcoming definitive feasibility study on its wider Laverton-Menzies hub development.
The definitive prefeasibility study will include the costs to refurbish the company’s Laverton processing plant.
With a booming gold price and an expanding portfolio of projects, Brightstar is looking to make hay while the sun shines by monetising some of its projects as it works to continue its company-making growth trajectory.
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MP pushes for tidal lagoon in Bristol Channel
MP pushes for tidal lagoon in Bristol Channel
Building a tidal lagoon in the Bristol Channel could provide clean energy for 120 years, an MP has said.
The proposed West Somerset Lagoon, which would cost £10bn to build, would run nine miles (14km) from Minehead to Watchet in Somerset.
Its lifespan would be twice that of a nuclear power plant, said Tiverton and Minehead MP Rachel Gilmour.
Mrs Gilmour said she will soon be discussing the proposal with ministers. If the project is pursued, it could be up and running by 2038 – bringing jobs and financial benefits to the area.
Tiverton and Minehead MP Rachel Gilmour (centre) with members of the Watchet Coastal Community Team [Daniel Mumby]
The lagoon would sit just a few miles west of Somerset’s new nuclear power station, Hinkley Point C, which is expected to be operational by the end of the decade.
Hinkley Point C could provide up to 7% of the ***’s power needs once up and running.
Speaking about the tidal lagoon proposal during a meeting organised by the Watchet Coastal Community Team, Mrs Gilmour said: “If this comes off, it will provide two-thirds of the electricity that Hinkley Point C would provide.”
She added: “Given that Hinkley Point C has cost £30bn and they still haven’t turned it on, the cost doesn’t seem to be a major factor.”
Harnessing the Severn
The tidal lagoon would comprise more than 200 concrete caissons – structures used in marine engineering – in the Bristol Channel, arranged in a semicircle between Minehead and Watchet, according to the Local Democracy Reporting Service.
Up to 125 turbines would be installed, which would generate electricity from the tidal movements of the River Severn.
There would be locks within the lagoon structure at Minehead and Watchet, allowing the towns’ harbours to stay open to commercial ships and leisure crafts.
In addition to power generation, the website for the project pledges to deliver a new promenade in Minehead, along with an arts centre and visitor centre and a new ferry terminal to make it easier to visit the town.
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Caroline Kennedy slams RFK Jr. as 'predator' before confirmation hearing – ABC News
Caroline Kennedy slams RFK Jr. as 'predator' before confirmation hearing – ABC News
Caroline Kennedy slams RFK Jr. as ‘predator’ before confirmation hearing ABC NewsCaroline Kennedy Calls RFK Jr. a ‘Predator’ in Letter to Senators The New York TimesCaroline Kennedy warns of ‘predator’ RFK Jr. in searing letter, video The Washington PostJFK’s daughter says cousin RFK Jr is a ‘predator,’ ‘willfully misinformed’ and ‘unqualified’ to lead HHS Fox NewsCaroline Kennedy calls cousin, RFK Jr., a ‘predator’ before HHS hearing USA TODAY
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Balga resident wants compensation for lost medication, food and income after two-day power outage
Balga resident wants compensation for lost medication, food and income after two-day power outage
A Balga woman says she felt her suburb was just a second thought in the minds of authorities racing to fix power outages which plagued tens of thousands of residents across Western Australia this week.
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