This Unstoppable Stock Will Soar to $10 Trillion By 2030
This Unstoppable Stock Will Soar to $10 Trillion By 2030
Artificial intelligence (AI) has taken center stage over the past couple of years, and there’s good reason to think this is just the beginning. Developers are still coming up with new applications for the technology, which is being harnessed to create original content, streamline business processes, and increase productivity. It’s still early days for the adoption of AI and the evidence suggests spending has only just begun to ramp up.
In fact, the biggest names in technology — Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Amazon — have announced plans to collectively lay out more than $315 billion for the capital expenditures necessary to support AI in 2025, and these outlays show no signs of slowing.
The undisputable beneficiary of much of this spending is Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). The company developed the graphics processing units (GPUs) that have become the gold standard for processing AI and could parlay the unrelenting demand into charter membership of the $10 trillion club.
Image source: Getty Images.
Nvidia created the GPU in 1999 to create realistic images in video games. The groundbreaking development was parallel processing, which processes a multitude of mathematical computations simultaneously. By breaking up these large computing jobs into smaller, bite-sized chunks, Nvidia’s chips were a game-changer.
Over the years, however, these same processors have proven adept at other applications, including cloud computing and data center operations — where AI lives. The unrelenting demand for these chips has driven Nvidia’s financial results and its stock price to new heights.
Over the past decade, Nvidia’s revenue has grown by 2,950% (as of market close on Monday), while its net income has surged 14,310%. Furthermore, the company’s consistent financial results have fueled a blistering rise in its stock price, which has soared 23,960%.
In its fiscal 2025 third quarter (ended Oct. 27), Nvidia generated record revenue of $35 billion, which surged 94% year over year and 17% sequentially. This fueled adjusted earnings per share (EPS) that soared 103% to $0.81. The headline was the data center business, including chips used for cloud computing, data centers, and AI. Revenue for the segment clocked in at $30.8 billion, up 112%, driven by unprecedented demand for AI.
This could be just the beginning. Goldman Sachs Research estimates the AI market could be worth $7 trillion by 2030, with Nvidia supplying the chips that underpin the technology.
Nvidia currently sports a market cap of roughly $3.27 trillion (as of this writing). That means it will take stock price gains of 212% to drive its value to $10 trillion. According to Wall Street, Nvidia is poised to generate revenue of more than $129 billion in fiscal 2025, giving it a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of roughly 25. Assuming its P/S remains constant, Nvidia would need to grow its revenue to roughly $402 billion annually to support a $10 trillion market cap.
Story Continues
Wall Street is forecasting annual revenue growth for Nvidia of 40% over the next five years. If the company can attain that benchmark, it could reach a $10 trillion market cap as early as 2029. But don’t take my word for it. Beth Kindig, CEO and lead tech analyst for the I/O Fund, estimates that Nvidia’s market cap will reach $10 trillion by 2030 (emphasis mine): “We believe Nvidia will reach a $10 trillion market cap by 2030 or sooner through a rapid product road map, its impenetrable moat from the CUDA [Compute Unified Device Architecture] software platform, and due to being an AI systems company that provides components well beyond GPUs, including networking and software platforms.”
Given the rapid and accelerating adoption of AI, I think Kindig is spot-on in her assessment.
That said, investors should be prepared to deal with the inevitable volatility. Given its meteoric rise over the past few years, any failure on Nvidia’s part — real or imagined — could crater the stock price, a fact we’ve seen play out in recent months.
Reports that ******** start-up DeepSeek’s R1 model was on par with OpenAI’s o1 model — and was developed using older processors at a fraction of the cost — crushed Nvidia, as the stock plunged 17% and lost $600 billion in market cap in a single day. The popular narrative was that there would be no need to use cutting-edge GPUs when inferior ones would work just as well. Analysts have had time to digest the news and have found some of DeepSeek’s claims to be questionable.
Wall Street expects Nvidia to generate EPS of $4.44 in fiscal 2026, which began in late January. That works out to roughly 30 times forward earnings (as of this writing). That’s well below the stock’s average forward multiple of 42 over the past five years and an attractive price to pay for a company supplying the picks and shovels fueling the AI revolution.
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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Danny Vena has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Goldman Sachs Group, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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Taiwan pledges to boost US investment after Donald Trump’s tariff threat – Financial Times
Taiwan pledges to boost US investment after Donald Trump’s tariff threat – Financial Times
Taiwan pledges to boost US investment after Donald Trump’s tariff threat Financial TimesTaiwan pledges chip talks with US, more investment to mollify Trump ReutersTaiwan pledges to communicate and invest more in the US after Trump tariff threats ABC NewsTaiwan’s Lai Vows to Lift Military Funding After Trump Complaint BloombergTaiwan Prepares for Trump’s Tariffs, and a Changed Washington The New York Times
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ASX Runners of the Week: Caprice, EV Resources, Scorpion & Latitude
ASX Runners of the Week: Caprice, EV Resources, Scorpion & Latitude
Up and up the mighty gold price goes. In a seemingly unstoppable price run for the yellow metal, record profits and endless gold news trickled into this week’s ASX Runners of the Week list, with yet another three goldies featuring in Bulls N’ Bears featured top four.
Majors such as Evolution and Northern Star Resources announced record profits and dividends, and Northern Star declared its Kalgoorlie super pit was on track to regain its title as Australia’s biggest gold mine.
Critical minerals and ******** export controls are again on the menu, however, gold, particularly in Western Australia’s Murchison region, dominated this week’s chart toppers.
Caprices Resources Ltd (ASX: CRS)
248pc up (from 2.1c to 7.3c)
This week’s Bulls N’ Bears ASX Runner of the Week is Caprice Resources, which surged back to life on Wednesday after unveiling the results of its phase one drilling program at the company’s Island Gold project outside of Mt Magnet in WA.
Drilling at the project’s Vadrians Hill prospect returned plenty of thick and shallow high-grade gold, including a meaty 28 metrwa at 6.4 grams per tonne (g/t) from 114m downhole that featured a high-grade section of 4m running 16.4g/t gold.
The response from a market hungry for all things gold was staggering as the company surged on the day trading some $15 million of stock, which was not bad for a company valued at under $10m to start the week.
The frenzy didn’t let up on Thursday as the company peaked at a high of 7.3 cents per share, up from a close of 2.1c the week prior for a total gain of 248 per cent.
The Island Gold project lies buried within the burgeoning Murchison goldfields that is host to more than 15 million ounces of gold and some of Australia’s biggest gold producers in Westgold and Ramelius Resources.
Caprice says the project’s gold corridor is up to 1 kilometre wide and contains multiple banded iron formations up to 30m thick, which are the preferred host rock for gold mines in the Murchison.
The company is wasting no time capitalising on the results and the record high gold environment with a 30-hole phase two drilling program well underway at the project. Phase two is expected to churn through some 3500m of rock and is scheduled to wrap up by the end of this month.
This week’s favourite goldie says it has plenty more where that came from, with assays due to the market by late next month, a 248pc gain this week could be just the beginning of things to come for the revitalised Caprice.
EV Resources Ltd (ASX: EVR)
166pc up (from 0.3c to 0.8c)
EV Resources charged into second place on this week’s Runners list, after China retaliated against United States tariffs by banning molybdenum exports, which amount to almost half the world’s molybdenum supply.
The Central and South American-based EV Resources has its toes wet in the critical minerals space, boasting some of the highest-grade moly intercepts globally at its flagship Parag porphyry project in Peru.
High-grade moly is generally considered to be ore containing metal concentrations above 0.2pc. The company says its Parag numbers far outstretch these, including a sizeable hit of 89.4m from just 6.5m below surface running a massive 0.62pc molybdenum and 0.39pc copper.
Since the US produces just 12pc of the global molybdenum supply compared to China’s 45pc, American steel manufacturers are now scrambling to secure alternative sources.
EV Resources says analysts predict their reliance on producers in Latin America and other regions will increase dramatically. The price action the company experienced on the back of its moly announcement on Tuesday was dramatic indeed.
Last Friday’s closing price of 0.3c was left in the dust as the stock more than doubled on the day before peaking at a top of 0.8c by Wednesday, as the company released even more critical minerals updates with high-grade samples received from its recently acquired antimony project in Mexico.
More than 80 million shares traded across the two days, causing EV Resources share price to gain some 166pc, as the company looks primed to cash in on the latest critical minerals craze, all thanks to China and its continuing export controls.
Scorpion Minerals Ltd (ASX: SCN)
126pc up (from 1.5c to 3.4c)
Bulls N’ Bears loves a late Friday Runner, and this week our Friday favourite is Scorpion Minerals, which has had a very busy end to the week.
The company was suspended from quotation last week, but this week announced a strategic farm-in and accompanying capital raising to expand its exploration footprint in the previously mentioned hot property of the Murchison goldfields in WA.
The company has entered a binding agreement with E79 Gold Mines to acquire up to a 70pc of the Jungar Flats gold project, which lies immediately adjacent to its flagship Pharos project.
Scorpion now has the largest landholding in the region, with some 1600-square-kilometres of tenure along the Dalgaranga–Big Bell shear corridor. The underexplored but highly prospective gold region of the Murchison features the likes of Spartan Resources and Caprice.
The latest tenure expansion was accompanied by a $1.5m placement to sophisticated and institutional investors at 2c per share, a 33pc premium to the last traded price.
A culmination of yet more prospective Murchison gold tenure and a capital raising at a premium saw the company’s share price soar today, capping out at 3.4c from a close last week of 1.5c for a 126pc gain.
Camera IconLatitude 66 is preparing to test reverse circulation drilling capabilities at its flagship Kuusamo Schist Belt gold-cobalt project in Finland, in a regional first for Finish gold exploration. Credit: File
Latitude 66 (ASX: LAT)
120pc up (from 3.5c to 7.7c)
Finish-based gold and cobalt explorer Latitude 66 experienced a consistent run up this week to just miss out on a podium spot, as life returned to the high-grade gold hopeful.
The company had two pieces of news on Thursday. One was an innovative exploration initiative at its flagship Kuusamo Schist Belt (KSB) gold-cobalt project in Finland and another from joint venture partner Carnaby Resources on at its Greater Duchess copper drilling in Mt Isa, Queensland.
KSB is an advanced project in the throws of a finalising a scoping study on its existing 650,000-ounce gold and 5840t cobalt mineral resource in northern Finland. The potentially open pittable deposits features some seriously impressive grades of cobalt and more importantly gold at a respectable 2.7g/t for the 7.3 million tonne resource.
Latitude says it has locked in plans to deploy reverse circulation drilling at KSB for the first time in the region’s history, potentially significantly cutting costs and accelerating target testing across the broader project area.
Back in Queensland, Carnaby Resources unveiled some shallow high-grade copper at the Burke and Wills, Lady Fanny and Nil Desperandum prospects, which it shares with Latitude 66 through a joint venture.
Latitude says the results from all three prospects continue to demonstrate the massive upside for resource growth at the Greater Duchess project, which is just 70km south of Mt Isa.
The steady flow of good news and the more than steady appreciation of both gold and copper prices saw the unloved goldie return to life, closing the week out at a high of 7.7c from a close of 3.5c last week for a 120pc gain.
The company says drilling will get underway next month with even more news yet to come from a couple of eagerly anticipated scoping studies at KSB and Greater Duchess, which are expected to drop by the end of this quarter.
The way copper and gold are surging the hardest thing for Latitude to predict may be just how high of a metal price to use when calculating projected revenues.
Is your ASX-listed company doing something interesting? Contact: *****@*****.tld
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Call of Duty: Mobile will release the futuristic Season 2: Digital Dawn next week
Call of Duty: Mobile will release the futuristic Season 2: Digital Dawn next week
The Raid map receives a full visual upgrade
Free battle pass tiers include the VLK Rogue Shotgun and more
Seasonal events for Ramadan and Holi will be held too
Season 2 of Call of Duty: Mobile, Digital Dawn, is set to launch next week, bringing a futuristic theme with a remastered Raid Multiplayer map, the VLK Rogue Shotgun, and the new Flash Strike Tactical. Along with these additions, you’ll find a revamped Battle Pass, limited-time events, and brand-new customisation options.
The Raid map, originally introduced during Call of Duty: Mobile’s initial launch, has been given a full visual upgrade. Textures, water effects, and foliage have been improved, giving the luxurious estate a fresh look while keeping its familiar layout.
Of course, what you’re looking most forward to is probably the battle pass. Digital Dawn’s free tiers include the VLK Rogue Shotgun, a fast-firing shotgun with a large magazine, and the Flash Strike Grenade, which drills through surfaces before releasing a bright flash – useful for disorienting enemies behind cover.
The Premium Pass adds more content, including Operator Skins like Artery — Overwrite, Hudson — Shadow Agent, Blackjack — ****** Hack, and Umar Obi. Weapon Blueprints include the HVK-30 — Malware, SP-R 208 — Bot Sector, ICR-1 — Spyware, EM2 — Macro Virus, and the VLK Rogue — Ransomware.
Furthermore, several themed events are planned throughout the season, starting with Shiba Feichai, a crossover event featuring a new weapon camo and exclusive rewards. Later, on February 28th, a Ramadan event will introduce login rewards, challenges, and an exchange shop.
During this event, you can unlock the M4 Rainbow Plume Blueprint, the Zero Azurine Dagger, and the Charly Feather and Plume Operator Skins. A Golden Horizon Bundle will also be available, bringing additional themed cosmetics like the Otter Refraction Operator Skin and the Muscle Car Sacred Vehicle Skin for Battle Royale.
Here’s a list of this month’s redeemable Call of Duty mobile codes!
To top it off, the Holi event, running from March 6th to 26th, introduces colour fragments that can be earned through daily and weekly tasks. These fragments can be used to unlock rewards, including Secret Caches, Battle Royale camos, and the Pharo Colour Spray.
Call of Duty: Mobile’s Season 2: Digital Dawn will release on February 19th. Visit the official website for detailed patch notes.
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Development Hell Has Likely Crushed Overwatch 2’s PvE Dreams for Good
Development Hell Has Likely Crushed Overwatch 2’s PvE Dreams for Good
Overwatch 2 has been on a very rocky journey since its release and the game has still struggled to find favor in the eyes of its playerbase. The biggest disappointment of the “sequel” was the cancellation of PvE. And recent statements from game director Aaron Keller suggest that the return of past PvE content is unlikely.
We can’t expect content like the Archive missions anytime soon. | Image Credit: Blizzard
In a recent interview with content creator Emongg, Keller admitted that the missions had effectively “broken” during Overwatch 2’s development and would need to be completely remade. The game has taken on a different direction entirely with recent updates so it’s unlikely that we see anything PvE-related anytime soon.
Making Overwatch 2 broke the Archive missions
And it’s gonna take a lot to bring it back. | Image Credit: Blizzard
Overwatch’s Archives event was a fan favorite for many in the original game. Missions like Uprising, Retribution, and Storm Rising let us experience key historical moments from the Overwatch universe. However, these fan-favorite missions never made the switch to Overwatch 2. And honestly, we still haven’t recovered from it.
Overwatch 2 PvE will be a hollow shell of what was promised
YEARS of a content drought for FRACTIONS of what was promised
NO hero talent trees Basically a regular Overwatch campaign being released in small pieces?
It was all for basically nothing. What a heartbreaker. pic.twitter.com/ALeEMekMKZ
— Samito (@SamitoFPS) May 16, 2023
While we’ve gotten a lot of reasons in the past as to why all these features and PvE never made it to Overwatch 2 in October 2022, Game director Aaron Keller recently gave more details in an interview with popular streamer Emongg. He explained that the game’s shift to a new code base broke the mechanics that made Archives work.
He went on to say that the developers would have to completely remake the system from the ground up to make it work again. So because it’s an issue that would require significant development resources, it’s probable that the company doesn’t have it on high priority. This effectively confirms what we’ve known. The return of Archives is highly unlikely.
Archives is unlikely to return in #Overwatch2
Aaron Keller admits that as they were working on PVE for the sequel, the original missions all broke, meaning they’d have to remake them to bring them back. pic.twitter.com/Mob5BK8OmY
— Overwatch Cavalry (@OWCavalry) February 12, 2025
Despite these setbacks, Keller has hinted that Blizzard still wants to explore PvE storytelling in some capacity. He acknowledged that the game’s lore has become fragmented due to the collapse of its original PvE plans, and he expressed a desire to find new ways to advance the narrative. He did make it clear that there is nothing concrete to announce at this time. So let’s not get our hopes too high.
The PvE debate can really be put to bed now
Blizzard has moved on to other priorities. | Image Credit: Blizzard
Overwatch 2’s troubled PvE history has been about more than just Archives missions. The game was initially marketed as a sequel largely because of its ambitious PvE mode and we were promised deep story-driven content and hero progression. However, Blizzard drastically scaled back these plans in 2023 and canceled many of the promised features.
Keller’s recent comments do make sense if you think about Blizzard’s ongoing prioritization of PvP over PvE. The game director previously stated that PvP is the primary focus of Overwatch 2, as it caters to the game’s core player base. The recent introduction of Hero Perks and the new Stadium mode is all in support of that.
The live service genre has only gotten more competitive in the last few years. Instead of innovating and making new things, Overwatch 2 has chosen to concentrate on refining its competitive gameplay. It kinda does and doesn’t make sense but that’s for Blizzard to worry about at this point.
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Suspected Munich car attack: What we know – BBC.com
Suspected Munich car attack: What we know – BBC.com
Suspected Munich car attack: What we know BBC.comCar driver in Munich plows into crowd 1 day before Vance and world leaders gather for security conference Fox NewsDozens hurt in suspected car ramming attack in Munich before ******* election ReutersDozens Injured as Driver Crashes Car Into Munich Protest The New York Times
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Star Wars Outlaws Wins VES Award for Outstanding Real-Time Visual Effects
Star Wars Outlaws Wins VES Award for Outstanding Real-Time Visual Effects
Star Wars Outlaws wins the VES Award for Outstanding Visual Effects in a Real-Time Project, setting a new benchmark for gaming visuals. Learn more here!
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More migrant workers seek help over *** farm exploitation claims
More migrant workers seek help over *** farm exploitation claims
United Voices of the World
Julia Quecano Casimiro campaigns for better protections for migrant workers on *** farms
The number of foreign workers seeking help over claims of exploitation, bullying, underpayment and poor living conditions on *** farms significantly increased last year, the BBC has learned.
Nearly 700 foreign seasonal agricultural labourers complained to the Worker Support Centre (WSC) national charity in 2024 they were being treated unfairly by farmers who had brought them over to work, compared to just over 400 in 2023.
One former fruit picker told the BBC more must be done to protect migrants from being treated like slaves.
The *** government said it always took “decisive action” if abusive practices were found on farms.
PA Media
The government’s seasonal worker scheme for agriculture will see 45,000 visas made available this year
Bolivian Julia Quecano Casimiro came to the *** on a seasonal worker visa to pick cherries for Haygrove, a Herefordshire-based farm business.
Ms Casimiro is currently taking the company to an employment tribunal over claims of unfair dismissal, discrimination and underpayment of wages, and now campaigns for better protection for seasonal farm workers.
In an initial ruling, the Home Office found there were reasonable grounds to believe that Ms Casimiro could have been a victim of modern slavery.
She told the BBC she feared the true scale of exploitation of workers was a “hidden problem”, adding: “Many seasonal workers continue to have their rights violated at this very moment.
“What is happening is very serious because we don’t have access to any assistance or support.
“If the *** government does not take action to stop what is happening there will continue to be more victims of modern slavery.”
United Voices of the World
Campaigners now want a review of the seasonal agricultural worker scheme and of any exploitation risks it presents
A spokeswoman for Haygrove said Ms Casimiro’s discontent was prompted by a discrepancy in the face value of flight tickets and the amount loaned to workers for the tickets, and lower than typical hours of work available in the month of July, as a result of extraordinary weather conditions.
The company added that her allegations are “materially incorrect and misleading” and that it has “never had accusations of this nature before in the history of our business”.
It told the BBC that its practices “are routinely audited by a range of third-party bodies, including by the Gangmasters and Labour Abuse Authority (GLAA), the Home Office, the British Retail Consortium, Red Tractor/Assured Produce, LEAF, Soil Association and SEDEX”.
The company said Ms Casimiro worked at Hayford for 11 days before leaving with a free air ticket home, and her claims were based on a “short-lived, snapshot, atypical experience”.
“We take great care in ensuring fairness and equality in our recruitment and working processes,” the spokeswoman added.
‘Deeply concerned’
The company said it is also co-operating with a nationwide GLAA investigation into how companies recruited 20 Indonesian workers.
Last summer, those workers claimed they were charged ******** fees to come to the *** by recruitment agencies abroad.
The Haygrove spokeswoman said: “We are deeply concerned by claims that Indonesian workers were charged ******** fees by recruitment agents, which is strictly against our policy and principles.”
She added that the company took any allegations of misconduct “very seriously” and had “co-operated fully with investigations by the GLAA”.
Haygrove is “committed to fair employment practices and the wellbeing of all our workers”, she said.
Workers ‘invaluable’
The government’s seasonal agricultural worker scheme will see 43,000 visas made available for the horticulture industry and 2,000 for poultry farms this year.
A survey carried out early last year by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) found 91% of respondents reported a positive experience working on *** farms.
However, the WSC, which works to prevent abuses of marginalised workers, said it dealt with a rise in complaints about the scheme during 2024.
One man, from Kyrgyzstan, who worked on different farms in England and Scotland on and off over three years, told the WSC he had been expected to live in poor conditions, been discriminated against and been unfairly dismissed.
The worker, who wanted to remain anonymous to protect future job opportunities, told the BBC through a translator that he felt standards had got worse over that time and farm employers did not care about workers’ wellbeing, or level of pay.
The WSC said its caseworkers dealt with 158 farm labourers in one month last summer and referred 19 cases involving 101 individuals to enforcement agencies. The workers were mainly Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Tajik and Uzbek.
The charity wants a review of the seasonal agricultural worker scheme and of any risks of exploitation it presents.
A Home Office spokeswoman said its staff had visited 318 farms and carried out more than 2,100 worker interviews, with improvements made every year to stop exploitation and poor working conditions.
“We will always take decisive action where we believe abusive practices are taking place or the conditions of the route are not met,” she added.
The National Farmers’ Union said overseas workers were “invaluable” to British farmers, who “take employee ******** extremely seriously and are continually adapting the way they operate to provide the best experience for workers”.
A spokeswoman added that the vast majority of workers have “a good experience in the *** which results in many returning to the same farms season after season”.
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Hacking group Fog ransomware claim to have stolen 62gb of data from University of Notre Dame
Hacking group Fog ransomware claim to have stolen 62gb of data from University of Notre Dame
The online ransomware gang claims the data includes student medical documents and contact details.
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Upstart’s Uptrend Is Just Getting Started: Time to Load Up?
Upstart’s Uptrend Is Just Getting Started: Time to Load Up?
After years of struggling to find traction, Upstart’s (NASDAQ:) business is moving again. Time spent focused on operations and improvement to the AI model has paid off. Now, the company is in a hyper-growth phase, expected to sustain above 50% growth in 2025, and the market for its stock is reacting favorably.
The stock price, which has also struggled with traction, is also moving higher and breaking above critical resistance targets. The outlook for 2025 now includes a stock price reversal and the potential for a long-lasting uptrend.
Upstart Accelerates Growth in 2024; Guides for Strength in 2025
Upstart had a solid Q4, capping off a strong year with 56% revenue growth. The $218.46 million net revenue also outperformed MarketBeat’s consensus by more than 1000 basis points on increased transaction volume, conversions, and full-automated transactions. Transaction volume, the key metric, is up by 68% on a nearly 20% increase in conversions. Full-automated transactions increased to 91% of the net, up 200 basis points, and are expected to remain strong. Financial services such as loans are uniquely well-positioned for automation and AI assistance, and Upstart is the leading provider for banks and credit unions.
Margin news is mixed, but the outcome is better than analysts had hoped. The company’s contribution margin contracted but was offset by the revenue strength, producing a surprising operational profit despite another quarter of GAAP losses. The $0.26 in adjusted earnings is $0.30 better than forecasted, and GAAP profitability is expected to return by the end of F2025.
Guidance is also good. The company forecasted $1 billion in net revenue for 2025, above the consensus forecast, adjusted profits, and at least break-even GAAP results. The balance sheet reflects the impacts of repositioning and increased loan volume but remains strong. The company’s cash position is solid and leverage low, with a total liability of about 3.75x cash and only 2x equity.
Analysts Response Unanimous: Upstart is on Track to Drive Value
The analysts’ response to the Q4 results and 2025 guidance is bullish, with 100% of the updates positive, including two upgrades and six price target revisions. The upgrades and revisions extend the trend that began in mid-2024 and provide a tailwind for the market, with sentiment firming and the price target increasing. The consensus target lags the stock price action in mid-February but is up 10% in the 24 hours since the report was released and more than 100% in the preceding 12, with the highest targets offering some upside. The opportunity is that analysts, driven by results, will continue the price target revision trend in 2025 and drive the market to new highs.
The sell-side activity suggests that the upswing in Upstart could be vigorous. The market was nearly 20% short at the end of January, with institutions buying in bulk. Institutional buying doubles the selling, strengthening the tailwinds already in place. The question is if the shorts will reposition at higher price points, and the odds of that are low, given the outlook for revenue growth and earnings performance.
Upstart Confirms Reversal: The Next Target Is $135
Upstart’s price action confirmed the reversal that began in 2024 after the Q4 release. The market surged more than 20% to a new multi-year high, moving above critical resistance targets and setting up for a larger move. The next significant resistance target is near $135, about 40% upside from the mid-February levels, and may be reached before mid-year. If the short-covering turns into a mad dash, $135 could be reached before the start of CQ2 2025.
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NBC News Crew Captures Footage Of Firefighter & Vehicle Swept Off Road And Into The Ocean By Malibu Mudslide
NBC News Crew Captures Footage Of Firefighter & Vehicle Swept Off Road And Into The Ocean By Malibu Mudslide
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On an afternoon when the National Weather Service issued Flash Flood Warnings for Malibu, Topanga State Park and Pacific Palisades, an NBC News crew documented the unfortunate result of several inches of intense rain near the Palisades Fire scar.
According to Los Angeles Fire Department Public Information Officer Eric Scott, at 5:02 p.m. an “LAFD member had his vehicle swept off the road and into the ocean by a large debris flow along Big Rock Road in Malibu.” An NBC News crew covering the storm was there to capture the moment.
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The video shows the LAFD SUV already over the edge of the precipice that separates PCH from the beach below. A literal flood of ****** water roaring off the highway is seen rolling the vehicle and pushing it into the surf line. It eventually becomes stuck bumper deep in water and sand.
Video shown later on NBC4 also caught the moment the firefighter exited the vehicle during a lull in the surf.
Scott later wrote on X, “Fortunately, the member was able to exit his vehicle and reach safety with minor injuries. He was transported to a local hospital as a precaution.”
Video shown on Fox11 at just about the same time showed a similar cataract a few hundred yards up the coast washing out PCH in front of Duke’s restaurant.
The LAFD vehicle was still stuck in the surf after nightfall as rescue crews struggled to locate its exact location amid the rain and debris flows. Luckily, they were able to use the NBC News video to ID the location – in the 19600 block of PCH, an area that has repeatedly been the site of flooding mudflows – and begin to extricate the wreck.
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PayPal: Time to Strike With Shares Down Double Digits?
PayPal: Time to Strike With Shares Down Double Digits?
Payments giant PayPal (NASDAQ:) has had an unimpressive start to 2025, based on the returns of the stock. However, some argue it is unjustifiable for the stock to be down nearly 11% as of the Feb. 12 close. Differences in opinion largely stem from what investors took away from the company’s latest earnings report on Feb. 4.
The financials stock beat on revenue and adjusted earnings per share (EPS), yet shares fell over 13% in one day. Does this mean there is now a prime buying opportunity in PayPal stock, or is the drop a sign of things to come? I’ll break down the key points of contention in the report and answer this ultimate question.
Payments giant PayPal has had an unimpressive start to 2025, based on the returns of the stock. However, some argue it is unjustifiable for the stock to be down nearly 11% as of the Feb. 12 close. Differences in opinion largely stem from what investors took away from the company’s latest earnings report on Feb. 4.
The financials stock beat on revenue and adjusted earnings per share (EPS), yet shares fell over 13% in one day. Does this mean there is now a prime buying opportunity in PayPal stock, or is the drop a sign of things to come? I’ll break down the key points of contention in the report and answer this ultimate question.
Breaking Down Underlying Metrics Causing Trepidation
Much of the concern revolved around a key part of the business: branded checkout. This is where online sellers provide consumers with a PayPal-branded checkout option when making a purchase. Customers who already have a PayPal account can simply click a few buttons to make the purchase. This prevents them from having to enter lengthy credit card information, which may prevent them from purchasing at all.
The value add is that sellers complete more sales, increasing revenue even though they must give PayPal a cut. Branded checkout payment volume growth of 6% was lower than hoped. PayPal’s Chief Executive Officer called branded checkout the company’s “number one priority” in early 2024. Thus, failing to meet expectations on this metric shows the firm’s execution isn’t up to par on a key goal. However, it’s important to note that branded checkout volume still grew at a solid 6% clip, an acceleration from 5% in Q4 2023.
Another important focus was PayPal’s unbranded payment processing, known as Braintree. It fell from 29% growth to just 2%. However, profitability improved. The company is letting customers who aren’t profitable go, improving margins at the expense of growth. PayPal expects merchant renegotiations to improve Braintree margins by 1% in 2025 while hurting revenue growth by 5%. The company is boosting margins by advocating for the value of its extra services beyond payment processing in negotiations. Given the difference between margin benefit and revenue growth, this is clearly a strategy that is going to take a while to pay off.
Final Thoughts on PayPal’s Opportunity
At this point, the market clearly seems to be prioritizing growth over the profitability strategy that PayPal is pursuing. The gap between PayPal and market priorities suggests that PayPal shares may face short-term downside.
However, one thing that PayPal has that is difficult to ignore is very strong free cash flow generation. It plans to generate $6.5 billion in free cash flow in 2025. That gives it a forward price to free cash flow ratio of just under 12x as of the Feb. 12 close. That’s much cheaper than most of its competitors, but it is also growing much slower than companies like Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ:). This leads to concerns over the company’s competitive position. Still, the company maintains a massive lead in market share, according to data from Statista.
I think PayPal stock represents a solid risk-reward opportunity at this point. The company’s strong position feels overlooked. Its focus on long-term profits is causing an overreaction to short-term growth-reducing headwinds. The company’s Investor Day is an important event. It will provide details on the progress of its strategy. It could also showcase new and exciting initiatives.
Overall, there was a mixture of Wall Street analysts lowering and raising price targets after the company’s earnings call. Among four price target updates tracked by MarketBeat, the average was a target of $97 per share. The implied upside of this average comes in at 27%.
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The wistful message Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce shared at end of Super Bowl 2025 – New York Post
The wistful message Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce shared at end of Super Bowl 2025 – New York Post
The wistful message Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce shared at end of Super Bowl 2025 New York Post ‘A lot of wear and tear’ – Kelce considers retirement BBC.comVideo: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce’s Conversation During Super Bowl Loss Revealed Bleacher ReportReport: Chiefs give Travis Kelce March 14 deadline to decide playing future Yahoo SportsChiefs’ Charles Omenihu feels Travis Kelce ‘has a lot left,’ pleads for TE’s return: We ‘can’t go out like that’ NFL.com
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Watch: Premier League's iconic duos and their goals
Watch: Premier League's iconic duos and their goals
In honour of Valentine’s Day, BBC Sport looks back at some of the Premier League’s most iconic partnerships and their goals together.
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Global disunity, energy concerns and the shadow of Musk: key takeaways from the Paris AI summit | Artificial intelligence (AI)
Global disunity, energy concerns and the shadow of Musk: key takeaways from the Paris AI summit | Artificial intelligence (AI)
1. AImerica First
A speech by the US vice-president, JD Vance, symbolised a fracturing consensus on how to approach AI. He attended the summit with other global leaders, including the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, the ********* PM, Justin Trudeau, and the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.
In his speech in the Grand Palais, Vance made it clear the US was not going to be held back from developing the tech by global regulation or an excessive focus on safety.
“We need international regulatory regimes that foster the creation of AI technology rather than strangle it, and we need our European friends, in particular, to look to this new frontier with optimism rather than trepidation,” he said.
China was also challenged. Speaking in front of the country’s vice-premier, Zhang Guoqing, Vance warned his peers against cooperating with “authoritarian” regimes – in a clear reference to Beijing.
“Some of us in this room have learned from experience partnering with them means chaining your nation to an authoritarian master that seeks to infiltrate, dig in and seize your information infrastructure,” he said.
Delivered weeks after China’s DeepSeek rattled US investors with its powerful new model, Vance’s speech made it clear that America was determined to remain the global leader in AI.
2. Going it alone
Unsurprisingly given Vance’s exceptionalism, the US declined to sign the diplomatic declaration on “inclusive and sustainable” AI published at the end of the summit. But the ***, a major player in AI development, also refused, stating that the document had not gone far enough in addressing global governance of AI and the technology’s impact on national security.
The failure to achieve consensus over a seemingly uncontroversial document, makes achieving meaningful global governance of AI appear an even more distant prospect. The first summit, at Bletchley Park in the *** in 2023, at least achieved an agreement between major nations and tech firms over AI testing – albeit on a voluntary basis.
Gatherings at Bletchley and Seoul a year later had achieved careful agreement, yet signs this wouldn’t happen at the third gathering were already clear on the opening night. In his welcoming speech, Macron pushed the case for investors and tech companies to view France and Europe as AI hubs, while throwing shade at Donald Trump’s focus on fossil fuels.
Referring to the vast energy consumption needed by AI, Macron said France stood out due to its reliance on nuclear energy.
“I have a good friend on the other side of the ocean saying ‘drill, baby, drill.’ Here, there is no need to drill. It’s plug, baby, plug. Electricity is available,” he said. It confirmed an undertone of differing national outlooks – and competition – at the summit.
Nonetheless Henry de Zoete, a former adviser on AI to Rishi Sunak in Downing Street, said the *** had “played a blinder”. “Not signing the statement brought vital good will with the Trump admin at little cost,” he wrote on X.
3. Playing it safe?
Safety, top of the agenda at the *** summit, was not at the forefront in Paris despite ongoing concerns.
Yoshua Bengio, a world-renowned computer scientist and chair of a major safety report released before the summit, told the Guardian in Paris that the world is not addressing the implications of highly intelligent AIs.
“We have a mental block on the idea that there will be machines that are smarter than us,” he said.
Sir Demis Hassabis, the head of Google’s AI unit, called for unity in dealing with AI after the lack of agreement over a declaration.
“It’s incredibly important the international community continues to come together and discuss the future of AI. We all have to be on the same page about the future we’re working to create.”
Pointing to potentially worrying scenarios such as powerful AI systems behaving deceptively, he added: “These concerns are not far-off or far-fetched, nor are they limited to one particular geography. They are global concerns that require focused, international cooperation.”
Safety aside, some key themes were given a prominent hearing at the summit. Macron’s AI envoy, Anne Bouverot, said the current environmental trajectory of AI was “unsustainable” while the general secretary of the UNI Global Union, Christy Hoffman, said AI could become an “engine of inequality” by driving productivity gains at the cost of workers’ ********.
4. Progress is accelerating
There were many references to the pace of change. Hassabis said in Paris that artificial general intelligence – a theoretical term for AI systems that match or exceed humans at any intellectual task – was “only perhaps five years or something away”.
Dario Amodei, chief executive of US AI company Anthropic, said that by 2026 or 2027 AI systems will be like a new country joining the world. It will be akin to “an entirely new state populated by highly intelligent people appearing on the global stage”.
Urging governments to do more to measure the economic impact of AI, Amodei warned that the advanced AI could represent “the largest change to the global labour market in human history”.
Sam Altman, the chief executive of ChatGPT developer OpenAI, flagged the startup’s latest product, Deep Research, which was released at the beginning of the month. It is an AI agent – the term for a system that can carry out tasks on users’ behalf – and is powered by a version of OpenAI’s latest cutting-edge model, o3.
Speaking at a fringe event, he said Deep Research could carry out a “low single-digit percentage of all the tasks in the economy in the world right now … which is a crazy statement.”
5. China offers to help
DeepSeek’s founder, Liang Wenfeng, did not attend the Paris summit although there was no shortage of discussion of the startup’s achievements. Hassabis said DeepSeek was “probably the best work I’ve seen come out of China”. He added, however, that there was “no actual new scientific advance there”.
Guoqing said China was willing to work with other countries to safeguard security and share achievements in AI to build “a community with a shared future for mankind”. One ******** AI company in Paris, Zhipu, predicted AI systems achieving “consciousness” by 2030, adding to the number of claims at the conference that super-powerful AIs are round the corner.
6. The shadow of Musk
The world’s richest person still managed to have an impact on events in Paris despite not attending. A consortium led by Elon Musk launched a near-$100bn bid for the non-profit that controls OpenAI, triggering a flood of questions for Altman, who is trying to convert the startup into a for-profit business.
Altman told reporters “the company is not for *****” and repeated a tongue-in-cheek counter offer: “We are happy to buy Twitter.”
Asked about the future of OpenAI’s non-profit arm, which is supposed to be spun off as part of the overhaul while retaining a stake in the profit-making unit, he said: “The non-profit will survive as a very, very strong thing … and we are totally focused on making sure we preserve that.”
In an interview with Bloomberg, Altman said Musk’s bid was probably an attempt to “slow us down.” He added: “Probably his whole life is from a position of insecurity – I feel for the guy.”
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Valentine’s Day: The Greek Roots of the Saint of Love
Valentine’s Day: The Greek Roots of the Saint of Love
A medieval manuscript featuring Saint Valentine. Credit: Public Domain
Was Saint Valentine Greek? Although much of the historical information on Valentine’s life is somewhat obscure, a community of Catholics on Lesvos has told Greek Reporter there are strong clues that he was either Greek or of Greek origin.
This week will see millions of people in Greece and across the world buy red roses, make hurried restaurant reservations and send candy sales through the roof as they celebrate St. Valentine’s Day — the annual feast of love and romance.
Greek priest claims that relics of Saint Valentine are in Lesvos
Father Leon Kiskinis of the Catholic Church of Our Lady in Mytilene talks to Greek Reporter. Credit: Father Kiskinis
Thousands of visitors will even fly to Greece to celebrate their romance, little knowing that a little part of Saint Valentine himself resides in the capital of the island of Lesvos, Mytilene.
In a recent interview with the Greek Reporter, Leon Kiskinis, the priest of the Catholic Church of Our Lady in Mytilene, says that some of the martyr’s relics are stored at the church.
The relic of Saint Valentine in the Catholic Church of Our Lady, Mytilene. Credit: Father Kiskinis
Kiskinis says the relics were brought from Terni, Italy in the late 19th century by a Greek Italian priest named Theodore Barzini. Before his death, he donated the relics to the church.
“The presence of the relics is a great opportunity for the people of Mytilene to attend the services on February 14 … Locals have embraced the saint and regard him as a patron irrespective of religious denominations,” Father Kiskinis says.
In an era when divorce rates are on the rise it is important to have a saint dedicated to Christian love, Kiskinis adds.
According to Father Kiskinis, there are also strong indications that Saint Valentine was either Greek or had Greek roots.
Better known as a saint in the Catholic Church, the earliest image of the saint reads ο Άγιος βαλεντίνος and was found in a sixth-century Roman church that served the city’s Greek community.
This oldest representation of Valentine the church of Santa Maria Antiqua in Rome retains a fresco with the scripture ‘Saint Valentine Martyr’ in Greek.
Knowing that Saint Valentine may have been Greek is a great honor for Greece and the Greek nation, Kiskinis says.
Although it is a long way from Valentine’s martyrdom in 270 AD at the hands of Roman Emperor Claudius II to 20th century Greece, it is here that some of the holy man’s remains can be found.
So, even though Valentine does not figure heavily in the Orthodox calendar, his roots extend to Greece and none of his history will stop romantic couples celebrating their love in his name this week.
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Engineering giant Bechtel joins Perth Airport’s $5 billion development program
Engineering giant Bechtel joins Perth Airport’s $5 billion development program
The US group will advise the airport as its “capital portfolio partner” while the aviation hub grapples with delivering an array of projects, including a second runway, with minimal disruption to flights
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Intel Ramps Up Efforts to Support Handheld Gaming Console Manufacturers WIth Dev Kits, Support Staff
Intel Ramps Up Efforts to Support Handheld Gaming Console Manufacturers WIth Dev Kits, Support Staff
Intel is working on ramping up its support for handheld gaming consoles, as demand for these compact PCs continues to increase. The chipmaker faces competition from AMD, which makes the Z1 and Z1 Extreme chips that power the Lenovo Legion Go and Asus ROG Ally X. However, the company has taken several steps to support the development of handheld gaming PCs. These range from providing dev kits to offering developers and developers access to specialist staff for its next generation chip technology.
Intel Seeds Prototype Handheld PCs to Game Developers
The chipmaker is improving its support for manufacturers of handheld gaming consoles like the MSI Claw 8 AI+ and Asus ROG Ally X. In an interaction with Laptop Mag, Robert Hallock, Intel VP and GM of AI and Technical Marketing, said that the company is seeding prototypes of handheld gaming consoles to game developers.
As part of its efforts to support these manufacturers, Intel is also offering access to its specialists, while the company’s new internal programs will help these console makers with performance profiles to optimise their devices. Intel is also providing developers with dev kits ahead of the arrival of its next-generation CPUs.
Intel’s Panther Lake Chips Could Offer Improved Memory Customisation
Intel’s Arrow Lake (Core Ultra Series 2) processors were launched in October 2024, and the company’s next generation Panther Lake CPUs are already in testing. Hallock told the publication that unlike Lunar Lake, the company’s Panther Lake chips do not include system memory on the CPU package. This means that product manufacturers will be able to offer customised RAM configurations.
Some handheld devices equipped with the latest Arrow Lake H-series chips were shown off at CES 2025, and these are expected to be unveiled in the coming months, with improved performance over other models with Lunar Lake CPUs. There’s currently no timeline for the launch of Intel’s Panther Lake chips, which are likely to power mobile devices like laptops and handheld gaming PCs.
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China’s Baidu to Make Latest Ernie AI Model Open-Source as Competition Heats Up
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Stars flee Kennedy Center groups after Trump seizes chair
Stars flee Kennedy Center groups after Trump seizes chair
President Trump’s ascension to chair of the Kennedy Center on Wednesday led to multiple departures from the Washington, D.C., institution.
Trump last week announced he was replacing several members of the Kennedy Center’s board of trustees and would name himself chair. On Wednesday, the new board elected Trump as chair of the board.
At approximately the same time that Trump announced his takeover, musician Ben Folds said he would resign as artistic adviser to the National Symphony Orchestra, “given developments at the Kennedy Center.”
“It’s been a wonderful 8 years” the former Ben Folds Five singer wrote on Instagram on Wednesday, saying he and the Kennedy Center’s staff encouraged “thousands of fresh new audiences to appreciate symphonic music.”
Award-winning opera singer and actor Renée Fleming said she would depart from her role as artistic adviser at large to the Kennedy Center.
She praised David Rubenstein, whom Trump replaced as chair, saying his leadership is “just one of the many ways he has contributed to America’s cultural and historic heritage. He is the greatest patriot I know.”
Fleming also praised Deborah Rutter, whom the board fired Wednesday as president of the Kennedy Center, saying she “has been a tireless, creative leader, successfully expanding our National Center for the Arts in visionary ways.”
“They have both been an inspiration to me; and out of respect, I think it right to depart as well,” Fleming continued. “I’ve treasured the ***-partisan support for this institution as a beacon of America at our best. I hope the Kennedy Center continues to flourish and serve the passionate and diverse audience in our nation’s capital and across the country.”
Shonda Rhimes, the renowned television writer and producer, also reportedly resigned from the board after serving as the Kennedy Center’s treasurer.
“Please be advised that as of today, Shonda Rhimes has resigned from the board of the Kennedy Center,” a spokesperson for Rhimes told Deadline.
The Hill has reached out to her representation for comment.
Trump said Wednesday it is a “Great Honor” to serve as chair of the Kennedy Center’s board of trustees, writing on social media, “We will make The Kennedy Center a very special and exciting place!”
A White House official told The Hill the president participated in the board meeting Wednesday to elect him.
The Kennedy Center confirmed Trump as its board chair in a Wednesday news release, saying that and other leadership changes were “effective immediately.”
“The Board also terminated Kennedy Center President Deborah F. Rutter’s contract and announced Richard Grenell as interim Kennedy Center President,” it said in its statement.
Some of the board’s new members include “God Bless the U.S.A.” singer and ardent Trump supporter Lee Greenwood, White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, second lady Usha Vance and senior adviser Dan Scavino, among others.
Judy Kurtz contributed
Updated Feb. 13 at 8:49 p.m. EST
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.
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TikTok returns to Apple App Store and Google Play in US | TikTok
TikTok returns to Apple App Store and Google Play in US | TikTok
TikTok returned to the US app stores of Apple and Google on Thursday as President Donald Trump delayed a ban on the ********-owned social media app and assured the tech giants they would not be fined for distributing or maintaining it.
The popular short video app used by nearly half of all Americans went dark briefly last month, before a law took effect on 19 January that requires its ******** owner ByteDance either to sell it on national security grounds or face a ban.
The following day, Trump signed an executive order seeking to delay the enforcement of the ban by 75 days, allowing TikTok to continue its operations in the US temporarily.
Although TikTok resumed service after Trump’s assurances, Google and Apple kept the app removed from their US app stores.
TikTok, the second-most downloaded app in the US last year, said on Thursday that its latest app was now available for download.
The delay could have been because Google and Apple were awaiting assurances that they would not be prosecuted for hosting or distributing the app, according to analysts.
Trump’s directive said the companies would not face penalties for keeping the TikTok app up and running.
TikTok had more than 52m downloads in 2024, according to market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. About 52% of its total downloads were from Apple’s App Store, while 48% were from Google Play in the US last year, Sensor Tower said.
The law that requires ByteDance to sell TikTok’s US assets or ultimately face a ban was signed by then president Joe Biden in April last year, triggered by national security concerns and fears that China could use the video-sharing app to spy on American users.
The US has never banned a major social media platform and the law that passed last year gives the government sweeping authority to ban or seek the ***** of other ********-owned apps.
Trump said on Thursday that his 75-day deadline on TikTok could be extended.
The turmoil at TikTok attracted several potential buyers, including former Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt, who have expressed interest in the fast-growing business that analysts estimate could be worth as much as $50bn.
Trump has said that he was in talks with multiple people over TikTok’s purchase and would likely have a decision on the app’s future in February.
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Europe stocks lower after hitting highs on Ukraine peace deal hopes
Europe stocks lower after hitting highs on Ukraine peace deal hopes
European stock markets opened lower on Friday after hitting record highs earlier this week.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index moved 0.1% lower when markets opened. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down by 0.25%, and Germany’s DAX was lower by 0.3%. Meanwhile, France’s CAC 40 opened flat.
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Friday, after Wall Street rose overnight as President Donald Trump signed a reciprocal tariffs plan, but did not enact the levies immediately.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 Index rose 0.86%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index surged 3.06%, extending its gains from the previous session.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 ended the day 0.79% lower at 39,149.43, while the broader Topix index lost 0.23% to close at 2,759.21.
In European markets, British lender NatWest reported its full-year earnings, beating estimates on profit and revenues. The company, which is still partly owned by the state, said that the U.K. government had reduced its stake in the bank from 7.98% to 6.98%.
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Judge to Hear Arguments Over Musk’s Access to Sensitive Treasury Data – The New York Times
Judge to Hear Arguments Over Musk’s Access to Sensitive Treasury Data – The New York Times
Judge to Hear Arguments Over Musk’s Access to Sensitive Treasury Data The New York TimesUS states say Trump illegally appointed Elon Musk to head DOGE ReutersThe lawsuit seeking to kick Elon Musk out of government, explained Vox.com
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S&P 500 Momentum Holds but Is There a Change Boiling Beneath the Surface?
S&P 500 Momentum Holds but Is There a Change Boiling Beneath the Surface?
Equity markets are off to a solid start in 2025. Despite an array of headline risks, the has climbed over 3% on the year and even notched a record high last month. Within the index, returns have also become more dispersed, pointing to a growing opportunity set for active management.
The rising dispersion in returns and relatively low correlation among S&P 500 stocks has become increasingly apparent on the CBOE S&P 500 Dispersion Index and the CBOE One-Month Implied Correlation Index.
The dispersion index compares the prices of S&P 500 constituent stock options and S&P 500 index options to quantify market expectations for how differently individual stocks are likely to perform relative to each other.
A higher index level implies higher expectations for wider deviations in returns within the S&P 500, and with higher dispersion comes more opportunities for alpha generation via active management. The correlation index quantifies the expected average correlation among S&P 500 stocks over a rolling one-month *******.
Higher readings imply higher expectations for stocks to move more in tandem, while lower values suggest the market is pricing in more independent moves within the S&P 500.
Greater Dispersion and Lower Correlations Create Alpha Opportunities for Active Management
Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 02/13/25 Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
As part of LPL’s active management process, our Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) employs a combination of qualitative analysis done by an experienced team of subject matter experts (mind) and quantitative analysis of fundamental and technical analysis factors (machine) to arrive at tactical asset allocation decisions. This “mind and machine” approach led to two sector changes this month.
First, the STAAC upgraded consumer discretionary to overweight from neutral. From a qualitative and fundamental standpoint, consumer spending remains resilient, the trajectories for earnings and cash flows are supportive, and the sector has generally grown into its valuations. Technically, the sector remains in a rising price channel, with strong momentum, breadth, and relative performance.
Second, the STAAC downgraded materials to underweight from neutral. Despite the recent rebound in performance this year (the sector is up over 5% year to date), the fundamental backdrop for the materials space continues to underwhelm.
Of the 22 of 28 sector stocks out with fourth-quarter results, only 68% beat bottom-line estimates, while less than a quarter topped revenue estimates. This compares to the broader S&P 500 earnings and revenue beat rates of 76% and 54%, respectively. Moreover, the sector has witnessed significant downward earnings revisions for the calendar year 2025 over the last few months.
From a technical perspective, a relief rally off oversold levels has propelled the sector to its 2021 highs. A close above 572 would reclaim this key resistance level and the 200-day moving average (DMA). Support sets up at the January lows near 523.
However, breadth and momentum in the sector are waning. The Percent Price Oscillator (PPO) — a momentum indicator based on the relationship between two moving averages — is converging toward a potential sell signal. Relative strength also remains a concern. The materials sector vs. S&P 500 ratio chart has been trending lower for the past two years. The lack of support and bearish momentum in this trend suggests continued underperformance for the sector ahead.
Materials Underperformance
Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 02/13/25 Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Summary
The S&P 500 is closing in on record-high territory. Underneath the surface, stock returns have become more dispersed, resulting in historically low correlations among constituents. This backdrop provides more alpha-generating opportunities for active management.
Disclaimer: LPL Research’s STAAC recently made several tactical allocation changes, including an upgrade of consumer discretionary to overweight and a downgrade of the materials sector to underweight. For the broader market, LPL Research continues to believe solid economic growth, strong earnings, and disinflation will power stocks higher this year. Plus, the technical picture remains positive, and historical patterns such as the January Barometer add to a compelling bull case. However, as we learned this week, the inflation battle is not over;, stocks are pricing in a lot of good news, and the policy landscape is tenuous. With more tariffs and retaliation likely, alongside government spending constraints that may make it difficult to extend the Trump tax cuts from 2017, we expect modest gains in stocks over the balance of the year with more ups and downs compared to 2024.
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Judge Orders Trump Administration to Resume Foreign Aid Spending – The New York Times
Judge Orders Trump Administration to Resume Foreign Aid Spending – The New York Times
Judge Orders Trump Administration to Resume Foreign Aid Spending The New York TimesJudge orders temporary reversal of Trump admin’s freeze on foreign aid Fox NewsJudge extends order blocking USAID leave notices and evacuations Government Executive
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