Pelican Press

Forces deep underground seem to be deforming Earth’s inner core Forces deep underground seem to be deforming Earth’s inner core An illustration showing Earth’s inner structure Rostislav Zatonskiy/Alamy Earth’s solid inner core appears to have changed shape in the past 20 years or so, according to seismic wave measurements – but the behaviour of these waves could also be explained by other shifts at the centre of the planet. Since the 1990s, models and seismic measurements have indicated that Earth’s iron-nickel inner core moves at its own pace. Over decades, the rotation of the inner core speeds up and slows down relative to the rest of the planet, affecting things such as the length of a day. Those changes in rotation are mainly due to magnetic forces generated by convection in Earth’s liquid outer core, says John Vidale at the University of Southern California. “That flow is continually torquing the inner core.” Those magnetic forces, or related processes, could change the shape of the inner core as well as its rotation – in fact, some previous measurements of seismic waves passing through the planet’s centre seemed to indicate just that. But uncertainty about the core’s rotation made it impossible to distinguish between a change in rotation and a change in shape. Now, Vidale and his colleagues have analysed seismic waves generated by 128 earthquakes off the coast of South America between 1991 and 2023. The waves were all measured by instruments in Alaska after passing through the planet. From these, the researchers identified 168 pairs of seismic waves that passed through or near the same area of the inner core – but years apart. Identifying these matches was only possible due to recent work better constraining the changes in rotation of the inner core, says Vidale. Both waves in each pair that didn’t pass through the inner core shared a similar pattern, suggesting nothing had changed in those areas within our planet between the first and second quake. But the waves in pairs that did intersect with the inner core didn’t match, indicating something about the core had changed beyond what could be explained by differences in rotation. The researchers say this suggests the inner core not only slows down or speeds up its rotation over decades, but it also changes shape. They say these changes would most likely be caused by convection in the outer core pulling magnetically at the less viscous edge of the solid inner core, or by interactions between the inner core and structures in the lower mantle, the layer between our planet’s core and its crust. Hrvoje Tkalčić at *********** National University, who wasn’t involved with the research, says this is a “step forward” towards resolving changes in the inner core beyond rotation. But he says a change in shape isn’t the only explanation for the mismatched seismic waves. As Vidale and his colleagues acknowledge, those differences could also be caused by unrelated changes in the outer core, convection within the inner core itself or even eruptions of melted material from the inner core. “It’s really hard to tell,” says Vidale. He suggests that studying more repeat earthquakes in the future will help identify changes in more detail. Tkalčić says more seismological measurements in remote places, like the ocean floor, would also help. “This is critical to understanding the evolution of the Earth’s deepest interior, from the time of the planetary formation to the present day,” he says. Topics: Source link #Forces #deep #underground #deforming #Earths #core Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

The options market expects Palantir to move either up or down by 20% in 6 weeks The options market expects Palantir to move either up or down by 20% in 6 weeks Palantir (PLTR) is a data analytics and software company founded in 2003 by a team that included Peter Thiel and Alex Karp. Palantir initially built its reputation through national security and counter-terrorism contracts with U.S. government agencies. The company builds platforms to help organizations integrate, manage, and analyze large volumes of complex data. Here’s an in-depth look at what Palantir is, why it’s growing rapidly, who its main competitors are, and what competitive advantages it may have: What is Palantir? Palantir develops advanced data integration and analytics platforms. Its flagship products include Gotham, which was initially developed for government and intelligence agencies. Gotham is designed to help users uncover patterns and actionable insights from vast amounts of disparate data. It has been widely used by defense and law enforcement agencies. Foundry is geared more toward commercial enterprises; Foundry transforms the way organizations operate by integrating data from multiple sources into a centralized platform that supports decision-making across various industries. As organizations and governments generate ever-larger volumes of data, the need for sophisticated tools to analyze and extract actionable insights has skyrocketed. Palantir’s platforms address this need by effectively handling complex, heterogeneous data sources. The company’s early and continued work with high-profile government agencies has provided a steady revenue stream and enhanced its credibility. The company is known for tailoring its solutions to its clients’ specific operational needs. This deep customization means that once implemented, Palantir’s software becomes deeply embedded in an organization’s workflow, resulting in high switching costs. Given its origins in the national security domain, Palantir strongly emphasizes data security and compliance. Its platforms are built to handle highly sensitive information, making them particularly attractive to government agencies and heavily regulated industries. Consequently, the company has experienced consistently impressive growth. Revenues have grown more than 285% in the past five years as of the most recently reported FYE, December 2024, which the company reported last week. The only knock on the company is valuation. Valuation concerns Physicists who studied the universe’s expansion initially believed that gravity would slow it over time. Similarly, multiples will often contract for fast-growing companies as operating results grow faster than the stock price, companies “grow into” their valuation, industries mature, and new competitors emerge. Based on more recent observations, physicists now believe that the universe’s expansion is accelerating and hypothesize the existence of “dark matter” to explain the gravitational effects implied by observations that cannot be explained by general relativity with observable matter. Palantir’s stock price this past week seems analogous. This is because significant growth was anticipated and priced into the stock before it occurred. A positive earnings surprise caused the stock to pop, not just to catch up with higher forward estimates but on considerable forward p/e expansion as well. Palantir is now up nearly 50% year-to-date and trades at an eye-watering 207 times forward earnings estimates and 68 times full-year estimated revenues. PLTR YTD mountain Palantir, YTD Palantir has deep ties to the new administration. Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel, who also co-founded PayPal with the administration’s DOGE Chief Elon Musk, strongly backed the Trump/Vance ticket, but this isn’t new information to investors. One possibility in cases like this is a short squeeze, where individuals who were short on stock presented with better-than-anticipated operating results cover their positions, driving the stock higher. But the short interest is about 4% of the float, not far from a day’s average trading volume. While some shorts may well cover on the sharp rally, what remains isn’t likely to be sufficient to promote a meme stock-like rally from here. One aspect that is almost meme-like, though, is the volatility. The options market implies the stock could move about 20% higher or lower within the next 6 weeks. The trade One way to bet that a stock will remain within a range — mainly a very wide range such as the one implied here — is to sell a strangle: sell an upside call and a downside put. The tricky part is that such a trade’s risk and capital requirements can be substantial in highly volatile stocks, particularly those whose movements are hard to explain. An iron condor hedges by combining a short strangle with a further out-of-the-money long strangle. This reduces the return, but it also reduces the risk and capital required to initiate the trade. I’ve provided an example of an iron condor expiring on March 28th here: Buy PLTR March 28 $80 put Sell PLTR March 28 $95 put Sell PLTR March 28 $140 call Buy PLTR March 28 $155 call DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer. Source link #options #market #expects #Palantir #move #weeks Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

Have we already breached the 1.5°C global warming target? Have we already breached the 1.5°C global warming target? A climate protester’s flag in Düsseldorf, Germany Ying *****/NurPhoto/Shuttersto​ck Last month, researchers confirmed that 2024 was the first year to see global average temperatures rise more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. It was a symbolic moment, given the world’s collective goal, set in 2015 under the Paris Agreement, to keep long-term warming to a 1.5°C threshold. But scientists were quick to stress that this goal is based on a 20-year average temperature, so global efforts to deliver on it are still – technically at least – in play. Yet experts are increasingly asking whether shorter periods of high temperatures could be a sign that the world has already breached 1.5°C. Can we conclude that this target has bitten the dust? Emanuele Bevacqua at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ in Germany and his colleagues set out to investigate whether a single warm year above 1.5°C could be a signal that long-term warming will soon reach that level. Using a combination of real-world observations and climate models, Bevacqua and his team studied warming thresholds already breached between 1981 and 2014. They found that the first single year exceeding 0.6°C, 0.7°C, 0.8°C, 0.9°C and 1°C above the pre-industrial benchmark has consistently fallen within the first 20-year ******* in which the average temperature reached the same thresholds. By that measure, the first single year above 1.5°C puts the world within the 20-year ******* scientists use to define 1.5°C of long-term warming, the team concludes. “It is highly probable that we are already within the 20-year *******,” says Bevacqua. “We are most likely within the first 10 years [of the *******]”. The findings chime with most predictions that long-term warming will reach 1.5°C by the late 2020s or early 2030s. It is a “confirmatory result” of what researchers are already predicting, says Paulo Ceppi at Imperial College London. But monthly temperature data may tell a different, more concerning, story. June 2024 was the 12th month in a row with average global temperatures at least 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. In a separate study, Alex Cannon at Environment and Climate Change Canada used a climate model to compare the first time global temperatures reach 1.5°C for 12 consecutive months with the time when the 20-year temperature average crosses 1.5°C. He found that, in climate model simulations, a run of 12 consecutive months above 1.5°C indicates an 80 per cent likelihood that long-term warming of 1.5°C has already been reached, even when natural variability such as El Niño phases are accounted for. “If you shift back into the real world, that would imply that there’s a good probability we have already passed the long-term threshold [for 1.5°C],” he says. However, the conclusions are based on a climate model that assumes Earth’s atmosphere is very responsive to changes in CO2 concentrations. The model is also running a high emissions scenario, notes Duo Chan at the University of Southampton, ***. “I will interpret the result with caution,” he says. Cannon notes this limitation in the study and suggests that if the model’s climate sensitivity is tempered and run on a medium emissions scenario, the long-term crossing of the 1.5°C threshold would probably occur before 2029, in line with estimates from the wider community. The conclusions also rely on models being able to accurately represent all drivers of warming and predict year-to-year variability in the global temperature. “If the models underestimate this variability, then they would overestimate the probability of having exceeded 1.5°C for a given number of months above the threshold,” says Ceppi. More research is needed to verify how well climate models are simulating short-term variability, he says, particularly given uncertainties about effects such as the reduction in atmospheric aerosols from shipping. Aerosols reflect sunlight out of Earth’s atmosphere, and so using cleaner shipping fuels can paradoxically lead to increased warming. Such uncertainties mean we should be cautious about over-interpreting results from single studies. After all, the Paris Agreement is a major political treaty, and declaring one of its key goals dead and buried would have seismic consequences. “[To answer] the question of whether or not we have exceeded the temperature levels referred to in the Paris Agreement, we would need to have very high scientific certainty, and we do not have that,” says Carl-Friedrich Schleussner at the research institute Climate Analytics in Berlin, who contributed to Bevacqua’s study. Cannon says even with the results of his research, “I don’t have sufficient information to say that [the 1.5°C goal has been breached] with any certainty”. The problem, he says, is that climate models predicting this scenario didn’t expect the recent run of record-breaking temperatures. “There’s an inconsistency between the timing in the models and what we’ve actually observed.” This implies the models are missing something that explains the recent surge of real-world warming. Most climate models don’t take into account the reduction in aerosols from shipping, which is one possible explanation. Cannon says his work is unearthing “warning flags that we need to understand things better”. Yet even if it is too early to say whether the Paris goal has already been reached, to some extent this is splitting hairs. “We are entering a 1.5°C world,” says Schleussner, with warming levels now very close to this critical threshold. “The impacts that scientists told us will happen around 1.5°C [of warming] are going to materialise.” “The truth of the matter is that the goals of the Paris Agreement hang in the balance,” he stresses. “If we continue on the current track, we will fail.” Topics: Source link #breached #1.5C #global #warming #target Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

Moving past repealing Obamacare, Republicans still plan major health care cuts – CNN Moving past repealing Obamacare, Republicans still plan major health care cuts – CNN Moving past repealing Obamacare, Republicans still plan major health care cuts CNNNJ officials warn of big GOP cuts to Medicaid NJ Spotlight NewsOpinion | The Republicans’ Choice: Tax Cuts for the Rich or Health Care for Americans The New York TimesCuts to Medicaid would have dire consequences for Native American population, experts say The Arizona Republic Source link #Moving #repealing #Obamacare #Republicans #plan #major #health #care #cuts #CNN Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

President Metsola: “Örebro shooting was a senseless act of violence” | News President Metsola: “Örebro shooting was a senseless act of violence” | News Örebro Shooting Calling on MEPs to observe a minute’s silence for the victims of the mass shooting at Risbergska school in Örebro on Tuesday 4 February 2025, President Metsola called the tragedy “a senseless act of violence that claimed innocent lives, shattering families, and scarring communities. Europe mourns those who have been lost, and our thoughts are with their loved ones, with all those who have been injured, and with the people of Sweden in this moment of profound sorrow.” She added that “hatred and violence have no place in Europe. The values that unite us – peace, democracy, and the dignity of human life – will always prevail.” Three years since Russian invasion of Ukraine President Metsola marked the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine by saying that “Ukraine remains resilient. And this Parliament stands with it.” President Metsola informed MEPs that Parliament will welcome Chairman Ruslan Stefanchuk of the Verkhovna Rada on Tuesday 11 February to mark this sombre anniversary. Interruptions during International Holocaust Remembrance Day Referring to interruptions that took place during Parliament’s solemn session on 29 January 2025 to honour International Holocaust Remembrance Day, President Metsola extended her deepest apologies for the “disgraceful” incident. “The gravity of such behaviour cannot be overstated. It is a stark reminder of why remembrance is not just a symbolic act, but a fundamental duty that this Parliament – that we all must – uphold,” she said. “The appropriate consequences will be drawn after the relevant procedures are followed. I thank all of you for being present that day.” Changes to the agenda MONDAY Parliament’s statements on the Situation in Sweden in the midst of the recent mass shooting in Örebro, with one round of political group speakers, is added as the first point today. TUESDAY A formal sitting with an address by Ruslan Stefanchuk, Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, is added at 12:00. As a consequence, the voting session will start at 12:30. THURSDAY The order of debates in the morning is changed as follows: the debate on EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement is taken as the first point on the agenda, whereas the debate on Threats to EU sovereignty through strategic dependencies in communication infrastructure follows as the second point. Request by several committees to start negotiations with Council and Commission Decisions by committees to enter into inter-institutional negotiations (Rule 71) are published on the plenary website. If no request for a vote in Parliament on the decision to enter into negotiations is made by Tuesday at midnight, the committees may start negotiations. Source link #President #Metsola #Örebro #shooting #senseless #act #violence #News Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

Palestinians won’t have right to return to Gaza under U.S. plan: Trump – National Palestinians won’t have right to return to Gaza under U.S. plan: Trump – National By Zeke Miller The Associated Press Posted February 10, 2025 12:31 pm 2 min read Descrease article font size Increase article font size President Donald Trump said Palestinians in Gaza would not have a right to return under his plan for U.S. “ownership” of the war-torn territory, contradicting other officials in his administration who have sought to argue Trump was only calling for the temporary relocation of its population. Less than a week after he floated his plan for the U.S. to take control of Gaza and turn it in “the Riviera of the Middle East,” Trump, in an interview with FOX News’ Bret Baier that was set to air on Monday, said “No, they wouldn’t” when asked if Palestinians in Gaza would have a right to return to the territory. It comes as he has ramped up pressure on Arab states, especially U.S. allies Jordan and Egypt, to take in Palestinians from Gaza, who claim the territory as part of a future homeland. Get daily National news Get the day’s top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. “We’ll build safe communities, a little bit away from where they are, where all of this danger is,” Trump said. “In the meantime, I would own this. Think of it as a real estate development for the future. It would be a beautiful piece of land. No big money spent.” Story continues below advertisement 2:04 Trump officials try to walk back Gaza takeover comments Trending Now Buffy Sainte-Marie stripped of her Order of Canada by Governor General Trump’s invasion threats violate international law: ********* ambassador Arab nations have sharply criticized the Trump proposal, and Trump’s latest words were released a day before he is set to host Jordan’s King Abdullah II at the White House on Tuesday. In addition to concerns about jeopardizing the long-held goals of a two-state solution to the Israel-************ conflict, Egypt and Jordan have privately raised security concerns about welcoming large numbers of additional refugees into their countries even temporarily. After Trump’s initial comments last week, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt and Secretary of State Marco Rubio respectfully insisted that Trump only wanted Palestinians relocated from Gaza “temporarily” and for an “interim” ******* to allow for debris removal, the disposal of unexploded ordinance and reconstruction. Trump last week didn’t rule out deploying U.S. troops to help secure the territory but at the same time insisted no U.S. funds would go to pay for the reconstruction of Gaza, raising fundamental questions about the nature of his plan. More on World More videos &copy 2025 The ********* Press Source link #Palestinians #wont #return #Gaza #U.S #plan #Trump #National Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

Serena Williams crip walks at surprise Super Bowl appearance Serena Williams crip walks at surprise Super Bowl appearance Tennis star Serena Williams made a surprise cameo during rapper Kendrick Lamar’s halftime performance at the Super Bowl on Sunday, showcasing her crip walk – a dance move that originated in Los Angeles. The moves were a reference to Williams and Lamar’s shared roots in the city. But the performance also recalled a Wimbledon controversy, when Williams faced criticism for a similar dance in celebration of her gold medal after defeating Maria Sharapova at the London Olympics in 2012. Critics at the time argued the dance was inappropriate and a glorification of gang violence. Williams addressed the controversy in a video she posted on X of her backstage at the Super Bowl. “Man I did not crip walk like that at Wimbledon,” she said laughing. “Oh, I would’ve been fined.” “It was all love,” she added of the Super Bowl performance. The crip walk was a move created by members of Los Angeles-area street gang the Crips in the 1970s. It was later adopted in the hip-hop community, especially among those with ties to the city. Williams has defended herself from criticism of her 2012 Wimbledon celebration. Some of her supporters have said the backlash was excessive and even racist. “It was just a dance,” Williams said of her celebration at the time. Williams’ cameo at the Super Bowl also captured the audience’s attention for another reason. The 43-year-old reportedly once dated rapper Drake, Lamar’s rival and the focus of his Grammy-award winning diss track, which he performed on Sunday. Lamar seemingly references Williams in the track, called Not Like Us, saying Drake “better not speak on Serena”. Williams, who grew up in Compton, California, has been married to Reddit founder Alexis Ohanian since 2017. Source link #Serena #Williams #crip #walks #surprise #Super #Bowl #appearance Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

New Hogwarts Legacy content on the way New Hogwarts Legacy content on the way Fans of Hogwarts Legacy will be happy to hear that it sounds like Avalanche Software is planning new content. Just last month, it introduced mod support. Bloomberg reports (via GamingBolt), the studio is working on multiple things tied to the IP. Alongside the new content rumored, it’s also rumored to be forming a “refreshed” version of the game and the already confirmed sequel. Avalanche’s Hogwarts Legacy launch was certainly the highlight of Warner Bros. Games’ launches in recent years back in 2023. Because of it feeling almost like the “stars just aligned” when it came to the game’s success, it’s hard to say whether a sequel or a refreshed version, whatever that means, will do just as, if not better, than the original. Fact of the matter, Warner Bros. Games needs to push through the hard times it’s going through thanks to its insistence on live service releases, only for said releases to bomb and effectively shut down. Gabriel Stanford-Reisinger Editor-in-Chief Gabe has been a gamer since he was young, playing games like Pajama Sam, Freddi Fish, Guitar Hero, and whatever looked cool on GameFly. Ever since 2018, he’s been infatuated with the inner workings of the gaming and entertainment industries, covering a wide range of topics from video games to TV and film. Starting as a contributor for PSX Extreme, he’s worked his way up to its Managing Editor. Using what’s he learned over the years, he founded Smash Jump to remind everyone to smash jump. Source link #Hogwarts #Legacy #content Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

S&P 500: Here Are the Bull/Bear Cases for the Rest of 2025 S&P 500: Here Are the Bull/Bear Cases for the Rest of 2025 Robust Economic Growth, Fueled by Business Spending and Moderating Inflation It’s easy to forget the U.S. just experienced one of the most aggressive rate-hiking cycles in history, and now, the is well into its rate-cutting campaign — and the economy not only remained intact, but performed well. A bull case for the economy would be driven by robust economic growth stemming from a few areas. Conditions are ripe for more business investment, and there is a sizable amount of capital ready to be deployed for expansion and research and development. On the inflation front, sticky services inflation has slowed disinflation progress, but services prices are poised to moderate this spring. Further, though the situation is fluid, tariffs and trade sanctions might be softer than feared, which could remove the overhang of inflationary and headwinds from stout universal levies. Stable Rates Are Likely, but the Treasury Could Aid Rate Relief After a sizable move higher to start the month, Treasury yields have moved lower since the turn of the calendar. With the Fed signaling fewer rate cuts than initially expected through a slower, and potentially shallower, rate-cutting cycle and a positive term premium, yields will likely remain stable. For the sake of the bull case scenario, yields could feel some downside pressure from moderating inflation, barring any negative economic surprises, of course. But the key would be monitoring the balance between growth risks (yields lower) and inflation risks (yields higher) in any new tariff regime. In the near term, the re-emergence of the debt ceiling debate and the subsequent lack of new Treasury issuance until March could be a marginal tailwind to rates. Moreover, recent comments by the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, and the desire from the Trump administration for lower 10-year yields through lower energy prices and spending cuts could keep rates well bid. Finally, at last week’s Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement, the Treasury Department noted that Treasury issuance trends would remain centered on shorter-maturity T-Bills (and not longer-maturity coupons), which could also provide rate relief as coupon supply remains steady amid still solid demand. Potential Tax Cuts Are Bullish, but Difficult to Achieve Some of the market’s advances since the November election can be attributed to market enthusiasm over tax cuts. While we put extending the Trump tax cuts from 2017 firmly in the bullish column, especially considering some new tax cuts may be added, e.g., a higher cap on mortgage interest deductions for state and local taxes (so-called SALT) and eliminating taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security. These extensions are by no means a slam-dunk. The tax cuts will be difficult to achieve because offsetting spending cuts and additional revenue will be needed to get them through Congress. If only a portion of the more than $4 trillion in tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 are extended, taxes will effectively increase in 2026. We expect most of the cuts to be extended, but they may expire in five years to lower the cost, and markets could be disappointed with how negotiations play out later this year. The Bull Market Has Plenty of Room Left to Run Recent developments in technology (DeepSeek) and headline tariff risk have rattled markets, but, despite near-term risks, we believe investors should give the bull market the benefit of the doubt. After all, since 1950, the average bull market tends to last over five years, and this bull just turned two last October. Plus, it’s hard to dispute the bullish momentum in the broader market. The S&P 500’s impressive 23.3% gain in 2024 carried over into January. Despite a slow start, the index rebounded to achieve a 2.7% gain last month, and historically, a positive January has been a bullish indicator for stocks. Yale Hirsch, the creator of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac,” identified this pattern in 1972, calling it the January Barometer with the famous tagline, “As goes January, so goes the year.” Hirsch’s adage has stood the test of time, making the January Barometer one of the most popular and respected seasonal indicators. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged an annual return of 17% in years with a positive January, with 89% of those years also ending positively. Additionally, the index has averaged February–December returns of 12.2%, with 86% of those periods ending in positive territory. Conversely, when the S&P 500 declined in January, annual returns averaged -1.7%, with only 50% of those years ending positively. January Barometer and S&P 500 Performance (%) Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg, 02/06/25 (Performance based on the 1950–2024 *******.) Our bear case, or worse-than-expected scenario, features escalating trade tensions, unabated deficit spending, another uptick in inflation coupled with no additional rate cuts from the Fed, excessive bullish sentiment, and elevated equity valuations. Tariffs Could Weigh on Economic Growth and Multinational Profits Tariffs may help reach objectives, such as raising much-needed revenue for the U.S. Treasury or encouraging stronger border enforcement by Mexico. But they hurt corporate profits by increasing import costs. And if countries retaliate, as China has (and as Canada and Mexico have planned), economic growth would be impaired. Tariffs also tend to push the U.S. dollar higher, which is a drag on profits for multinationals, and can cause inflation, even if temporary. We consider tariffs part of the bear case primarily because of China, where tariffs are likely to persist and potentially be ratcheted higher. Tariffs are likely to be small, narrow, and potentially short-lived in Canada and Mexico if they are put on at all, while the Trump administration is likely to impose tariffs on Europe in the coming months. Deficit Spending Paired with Tariffs Could Be Tricky for Bonds While economic growth will remain a key driver of interest rates, a secondary risk to rates remains the amount of Treasury debt needed to fill federal budget deficits. The Trump administration will likely keep the deficit unchanged, but expansion of the deficit is a possibility. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecast likely underestimated budget deficits going forward given they assumed no new spending initiatives nor an extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which will likely be extended by the Trump administration (at least mostly). The Treasury Department will need to issue and find investors for trillions more in Treasury securities to fill budget deficits, and to roll over Treasury securities set to mature in 2025. Moreover, related to the Trump presidency, there is a concern that deficit spending and tariffs could help growth but also keep inflationary pressures elevated. Tariffs could initially drive a lower trading range for rates through safe-haven flows, but any significant escalation could eventually push yields higher if tariffs prove inflationary, supply chains re-shore, and/or China reduces Treasury holdings more aggressively – as was the case during the first Trump administration. A Pickup in Inflation Would Be a Headwind While businesses are ramping up capital expenditures to boost productivity, cushioning the economy, a rise in inflation is not fully off the table. Consumers continue to feel good about current economic conditions and are putting their hard-earned dollars to good use. But if and continue to rise, inflation could remain elevated and run hotter than expected. Energy prices are stripped out of core inflation metrics, the Fed’s preferred gauges, but energy prices contributed over 40% of the monthly increase in headline inflation in December. Inflationary pressures could emerge if a geopolitical shock drives oil prices higher, or if President Trump’s hopes of lowering crude prices fall through. A pickup in inflation would also create some turbulence for the Fed, pushing out or even eliminating additional rate cuts in 2025, which could spark volatility in markets. Inflation Expectations Have Been Inching Higher The Fed wants inflation at 2.5% or lower, not 3% Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 02/05/25 Sentiment Has Eased, but Remains Stretched Coming into 2025, consumer sentiment towards the stock market was near all-time highs. Bullish views on the stock market for 2025 have eased some since December but remain above the previous all-time highs. When measures of bullishness or complacency get too stretched, they can be precursors to market selloffs. Put/call ratios (measuring the number of puts, or right to sell, divided by the number of calls, or right to buy, for an investment), are another gauge of market sentiment and remain near lows. While low put/call ratios may indicate less concern over a stock market decline and can precede stock market rallies, from a contrarian perspective, the lack of fear and a high degree of investor complacency could be a bearish indicator. Current ratios sit near November 2018 levels, before the market shed 9% and erased year-to-date gains. If bullish sentiment experiences a resurgence and becomes further stretched, markets may become a little more wary of overexuberance and vulnerable toward a sell-off. A Lot of Good News Is Priced in With Valuations Elevated We write and say it over and overvaluations are not good timing tools. But when the stock market gets a reason to drop, those declines tend to be ******* when they are accompanied by lofty valuation metrics. On a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) basis using the analysts’ consensus earnings estimates for the next 12 months, the S&P 500 has been trading at a P/E of over 22, at the high end of its 25-year range since the tech bubble burst. Stocks are also richly valued relative to bonds based on the equity risk premium (ERP). The ERP compares the earnings an investor gets at a given price level for the stock market (earnings divided by price) with the yield offered by long-term Treasuries (now about 4.5% on the 10-year). These two “yields” are about even right now, meaning investors are not getting compensated for the additional risk they are taking in equities relative to high-quality fixed income. The bar for stock valuations to expand, either through better earnings prospects or lower interest rates, is quite high. As such, if this bull market has another leg higher in it, earnings will likely be the main driver. A Lot of Good News is Priced in With Stock Valuations High Versus Bond Yields Equity risk premium essentially offers investors no compensation for taking on equity risk Source: LPL Research, FactSet, Refinitiv, Bloomberg 02/05/25 S&P 500 equity risk premium is the S&P 500 earnings yield (earnings divided by price) minus the US . Earnings represent estimates for the next 12 months. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Conclusion The bulls and bears both have good arguments for markets right now. On one side, there’s a good chance that economic growth, strong earnings, and disinflation will power stocks higher this year. Plus, the technical picture remains positive, and historical patterns such as the January Barometer add to a compelling bull case. However, the inflation battle is not over, stocks are pricing in a lot of good news, and the policy landscape is tenuous. With more tariffs and retaliation likely, alongside government spending constraints that may make it difficult to extend the Trump tax cuts from 2017, we expect modest gains in stocks over the balance of the year with more ups and downs compared to 2024. *** Disclosures: All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Breakeven inflation rates represent market expectations for future inflation over a given time frame based on the difference between a nominal Treasury yield and a Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) yield of the same duration. Source link #BullBear #Cases #Rest Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

Tom Robbins, Whose Comic Novels Drew a Cult Following, Dies at 92 – The New York Times Tom Robbins, Whose Comic Novels Drew a Cult Following, Dies at 92 – The New York Times Tom Robbins, Whose Comic Novels Drew a Cult Following, Dies at 92 The New York TimesA life in quotes: Tom Robbins The GuardianTom Robbins, bestselling PNW novelist and renegade icon, dies at 92 The Seattle TimesTom Robbins, literary prankster-philosopher, dies at 92 ABC News Source link #Tom #Robbins #Comic #Novels #Drew #Cult #Dies #York #Times Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

Take-Two seemingly hinting at eventual Grand Theft Auto 6 PC release Take-Two seemingly hinting at eventual Grand Theft Auto 6 PC release Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick has seemingly teased plans to bring Grand Theft Auto 6 to PC at some point. Grand Theft Auto games have historically been released for consoles first before making their way to PC at a later date. Therefore, it’s anticipated that GTA 6 will come to PC following its PS5 and Xbox Series X/S release this fall, even if it this has yet to be confirmed. In an interview with IGN, Take-Two boss Zelnick discussed the growing importance of the PC gaming business, and the publisher’s strategy for releasing titles for the platform. “So with Civilization 7 it’s available on console and PC and Switch right away,” he said of Firaxis’ recently released game. “With regard to others in our lineup, we don’t always go across all platforms simultaneously. Historically, Rockstar has started with some platforms and then historically moved to other platforms.” “We have seen PC become a much more and more important part of what used to be a console business, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that trend continue,” he added. “Of course, there will be a new console generation [too].” Grand Theft Auto 6 could generate more than $1 billion from pre-orders alone, according to research firm DFC Intelligence, which has predicted it will be by far the biggest launch of 2025 in all of entertainment. DFC forecasts that GTA 6 will generate $3.2 billion during its first year on *****, which is double what its predecessor managed back in 2013, and significantly more than 2024’s biggest movies Inside Out 2 ($1.7bn) and Deadpool & Wolverine ($1.3bn). Source link #TakeTwo #seemingly #hinting #eventual #Grand #Theft #Auto #release Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

Luke Littler: PDC world champion beaten in first Players Championship of 2025 Luke Littler: PDC world champion beaten in first Players Championship of 2025 Luke Littler was knocked out of the first Players Championship event of the year as he lost 6-3 to Joe Cullen. The 18-year-old PDC world champion averaged just 87.8 in the third-round match while fellow Englishman Cullen managed 95.4. Cullen threw six 180s as he won five consecutive legs to reach the last 16 of the tournament at the Robin Park Leisure Centre in Wigan. By contrast Littler uncharacteristically missed 15 doubles and was way below his best. Another big-name casualty at the same stage was world number five Stephen Bunting, who suffered a 6-4 defeat to Andrew Gilding while James Wade went down 6-1 to Ross Smith. World number one Luke Humphries went through with a comfortable 6-2 win over Mensur Suljovic. Dutchman Michael van Gerwen, who beat Littler in the Premier League opener in Belfast last week, is not taking part in this tournament. There are 34 Players Championship events across the year, with the competition’s finals scheduled to be held in Minehead from 21-23 November. Source link #Luke #Littler #PDC #world #champion #beaten #Players #Championship Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

Valve Seemingly Bans All Steam Games That Require Watching Advertisements To Play Valve Seemingly Bans All Steam Games That Require Watching Advertisements To Play Valve has seemingly introduced new rules that ban games that require users to watch paid ads (or rely on other such ad-based revenue models) from Steam. However, some sources report that these rules may have already existed, and that Valve has merely created a dedicated page on Steamworks to clarify this policy. The page explains that Steam does not contain paid advertising, and that advertising-based revenue models are not allowed on the platform. It further states that developers are also prohibited from using advertising as a way to provide value to players, such as giving players an in-game reward for watching or engaging with ads. “Developers should not utilize paid advertising as a business model in their game, such as requiring players to watch or otherwise engage with advertising in order to play, or gating gameplay behind advertising,” the rule reads in part. “If your game’s business model relies on advertising on other platforms, you will need to remove those elements before shipping on Steam.” This apparent change in Valve policy was first reported by GamingOnLinux. However, SteamDB posted screencaps on BlueSky that seem to show that this policy has been in effect for at least five years on a different page, and that this new page is a dedicated space for it that states it in a different way. Regardless, Valve did recently introduce a significant change to its storefront: warnings that note if a game in Early Access hasn’t been updated in more than a year. These alerts are ostensibly intended to inform users that the development timeline described on a game’s page might not have come to fruition, or if the game has been outright abandoned. Source link #Valve #Seemingly #Bans #Steam #Games #Require #Watching #Advertisements #Play Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

Asteroid 2024 YR4 Poses 1-in-43 Chance of Earth Impact in 2032 Asteroid 2024 YR4 Poses 1-in-43 Chance of Earth Impact in 2032 A newly identified asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, has been highlighted as a potential threat to Earth with an estimated 1-in-43 chance of impact in 2032. The space rock, measuring approximately 55 metres in diameter, was detected on December 27, 2024, by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System. While it is not expected to pose an existential threat, experts have cautioned that if it were to collide with Earth, significant destruction could occur, potentially wiping out an entire city. The energy released upon impact is estimated to be around 8 megatons, significantly higher than the atomic bomb detonated over Hiroshima in 1945. Potential Impact and Monitoring Efforts According to NASA’s estimates, the asteroid is currently travelling away from Earth, but its trajectory includes multiple close approaches in the coming decades. The highest probability of impact has been calculated for December 22, 2032. Further monitoring will refine these predictions, with scientists closely tracking its movement through the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. Presently, 2024 YR4 has been classified at Level 3 on the scale, indicating a need for observation and preparedness due to its potential impact risk within the next ten years. Scientific Assessments and Planetary Defence Measures As reported by Live Science, while most asteroids flagged at this level are eventually downgraded to Level 0, continued surveillance remains essential. Efforts by space agencies, including NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, have been focused on developing methods to deflect potentially hazardous objects. The success of previous tests has demonstrated that asteroid trajectories can be altered, providing a possible course of action should 2024 YR4’s impact probability increase in the future. Until further assessments are completed, experts stress the importance of continuous observation and preparedness against potential asteroid threats. Source link #Asteroid #YR4 #Poses #1in43 #Chance #Earth #Impact Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content] For verified travel tips and real support, visit: [Hidden Content]

What PM should tell Trump to save Australia from tariff What PM should tell Trump to save Australia from tariff Anthony Albanese is being encouraged to lean on Australia’s trade surplus and military ties with the US to seal a tariff exemption in a call with Donald Trump. Source link #Trump #save #Australia #tariff Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

Diego Maradona comes to EA Sports FC 25 this week, three years after being pulled from the series Diego Maradona comes to EA Sports FC 25 this week, three years after being pulled from the series The legendary Argentinian footballer Diego Maradona is finally returning to EA Sports FC later this week. Maradona was pulled from what was then known as the FIFA series back in March 2022, following a legal dispute. However, EA has now confirmed that Maradona will be returning to the series, and will be added to EA Sports FC 25 on February 14. At the time of writing EA has not provided VGC with information on how Maradona will be available in the game, but it’s likely that he will be added to its popular Ultimate Team mode, almost certainly as one of its most highly rated and rarest players. EA announced in 2022 that Maradona had been “suspended” from FIFA 22 due to “a third party legal dispute”. The issue appeared to stem from a debate over who owns Maradona’s likeness rights, with an Argentinian court deciding in 2021 that EA had potentially negotiated with the wrong party, and that it had to remove Maradona from the game until it could be determined who it should have dealt with. According to a report on Argentinian news website Infobae in November 2021, the court found that EA had signed a commercial agreement with Stefano Ceci, the player’s former manager. However, the court came to the conclusion that Ceci had no legal authority to make such deals, and wasn’t able to prove that he did. Maradona’s lawyer Matias Morla claimed that Maradona had granted the rights to the ‘Diego Armando Maradona’ brand to his company Sattvica before his death, but in March 2021, Sattvica was banned from using Maradona’s brands, following a complaint filed by two of Maradona’s daughters. The ban was overturned later that year, with Maradona’s daughters and Morla continuing to wage a bitter war over who owns the player’s rights. Maradona has remained present in Konami‘s eFootball series throughout his suspension from FIFA / EA Sports FC, but it’s not immediately clear who it agreed its rights deal with. Source link #Diego #Maradona #Sports #week #years #pulled #series Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content] For verified travel tips and real support, visit: [Hidden Content]

11,000-Year-Old Settlement in Canada Challenges Indigenous History 11,000-Year-Old Settlement in Canada Challenges Indigenous History A newly uncovered site in Saskatchewan, estimated to be 11,000 years old, is altering perspectives on early Indigenous civilisations in North America. The site, named Âsowanânihk, meaning “a place to cross” in Cree, has been found within the Sturgeon Lake First Nation (SLFN) territory. Discoveries at the site suggest the presence of a long-term, organised settlement rather than a temporary encampment. Stone tools, firepits, and bison remains have been identified, indicating continuous human occupation. The settlement’s significance lies in the evidence of sustained habitation, contradicting previous notions of early Indigenous groups being primarily nomadic. Evidence Points to Long-Term Occupation According to a study conducted by researchers at the University of Saskatchewan, charcoal from a hearth within the settlement has been radiocarbon-dated to approximately 10,700 years ago. Archaeologist Glenn Stuart, who is involved in the research, stated in an email to Live Science that people settled in this location as soon as it became habitable following the last ice age. Findings indicate that ancestral First Nations communities lived in the region west of Prince Albert for thousands of years. The excavation has revealed a substantial firepit, suggesting that the site was revisited and occupied multiple times over an extended *******. Cultural and Historical Impact SLFN Chief Christine Longjohn emphasised the historical and cultural importance of the discovery, stating that the site serves as tangible proof of Indigenous presence and resilience in the region. As reported, the site is being studied collaboratively by archaeologists and the Âsowanânihk Council, which comprises Elders, Knowledge Keepers, and educators. The council is actively working with stakeholders to ensure the protection of the site, which was initially discovered due to erosion along a riverbank. Concerns have been raised about potential threats posed by ongoing logging activities in the area, prompting efforts to preserve this historically significant location. Source link #11000YearOld #Settlement #Canada #Challenges #Indigenous #History Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

****** pauses Israeli hostage releases until further notice ****** pauses Israeli hostage releases until further notice ****** will pause the release of more Israeli hostages until further notice, it has said. The terror group accused Israel of breaching the ceasefire deal by blocking Palestinians from returning to their homes and shelling civilians. Israel and ****** are in the midst of a six-week ceasefire, during which ****** is releasing dozens of the hostages captured in its Oct 7 2023 attack on Israel in exchange for almost 2,000 ************ prisoners. Members of the Al-Qassam Brigades, ******’s military wing, gather ahead of a hostage release last month – Abed Rahim Khatib/Anadolu via Getty Images The sides have carried out five swaps since the ceasefire came into effect last month, freeing 21 hostages and more than 730 prisoners. The next exchange was scheduled for Saturday, with the release three Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of ************ prisoners. On Monday, Abu Obeida, the spokesman for the Al-Qassam Brigades, ******’s military wing, accused Israel of systematically violating the ceasefire agreement over the past three weeks and said Saturday’s release would be delayed. An Israeli official said some of ******’s claims were “simply fake” and that the terror group had also violated the agreement, Israeli media reported. The official was said to have added that ceasefire deal mediators must act to prevent a “crisis” developing. Israel Katz, the Israeli defence minister, called ******’s announcement a “complete violation of the ceasefire agreement” and placed the Israeli military on high alert. “I have instructed the IDF to prepare at the highest level of alert for any possible scenario in Gaza and to protect the communities,” he added. Hostages’ health means ‘time is of the essence’ The Hostages and Missing Families Forum, which represents Israeli captives held in Gaza, urged for assistance from countries mediating the ceasefire “to help restore and implement the existing deal effectively”. It added: “We stand with the Israeli government and encourage maintaining the conditions that will ensure the successful continuation of the agreement, leading to the safe return of our 76 brothers and sisters. “Recent evidence from those released, as well as the shocking conditions of the hostages released last Saturday, leaves no room for doubt – time is of the essence, and all hostages must be urgently rescued from this horrific situation.” An Israeli official said some of ******’ claims are “simply fake” and that the terror group had also violated the agreement, Israeli media reported. The official was said to have added that ceasefire deal mediators must act to prevent a “crisis” developing. This is a breaking story – more follows Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more. Source link #****** #pauses #Israeli #hostage #releases #notice Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content] For verified travel tips and real support, visit: [Hidden Content]

Trump’s federal employee buyout plan could be extended Trump’s federal employee buyout plan could be extended U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (not pictured) at the White House in Washington, U.S., Feb. 7, 2025. Kent Nishimura | Reuters The federal judge who paused the Trump administration’s offer of mass buyouts for government workers will hear arguments Monday afternoon about the legality of the “deferred resignation” program. More than 60,000 federal employees had reportedly taken the buyout offer when Judge George O’Toole Jr. issued a nationwide injunction last Thursday, pausing the program just hours before the deadline for workers to accept it. In response, the U.S. Office of Personnel Management shifted that deadline to Monday at 11:59 p.m. ET, while assuring that the program “is NOT being blocked or canceled.” O’Toole, an appointee of former President Bill Clinton, in Monday’s hearing will consider arguments from a handful of employee unions and the Trump administration about whether to block the plan from resuming. The unions in court filings slammed the buyout plan as an “unlawful ultimatum,” calling it a “sweeping and stunningly arbitrary action to solicit blanket resignations of federal workers.” They are asking O’Toole for a temporary restraining order while they seek additional relief from the courts. The Trump administration told the judge that the buyouts are a key piece of President Donald Trump’s efforts to overhaul the federal work force, and argued that pausing the deadline would have “remarkably disruptive and inequitable repercussions.” The hearing in U.S. District Court in Boston is set for 2 p.m. ET. The roughly two million federal employees eligible for the buyout offer have been encouraged to accept it by Elon Musk, the head of Trump’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency, which aims to slash the size of the federal bureaucracy. Read more CNBC politics coverage The offer — made in a Jan. 28 email from OPM titled “Fork in the Road” — gave federal workers the option to immediately resign, and retain pay and benefits until Sept. 30. To take the offer, they simply had to reply to the email by Feb. 6 with the word “Resign.” The unprecedented ultimatum quickly raised concerns about whether the Trump administration’s plan was lawful. Some legal experts said that since Congress has only appropriated funds through March 14, the Trump administration is making payment promises that it cannot guarantee. And some federal officials have flagged concerns that department secretaries may be able to rescind employees’ deferred resignation packages after they are accepted, leaving those workers without pay. OPM has denied that, pointing to a memo declaring that the government’s assurances are binding. This is developing news. Please check back for updates. Source link #Trumps #federal #employee #buyout #plan #extended Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

Jotunnslayer: Hordes of Hel – PC Early Access Preview | Thumb Culture Jotunnslayer: Hordes of Hel – PC Early Access Preview | Thumb Culture “The Kosice-based (Slovak Republic) indie games publisher Grindstone and indie games developer Games Farm , are today super excited and happy to announce that their rogulike horde-survivor game “Jötunnslayer: Hordes of Hel”, isJötunnslayer: Hordes of Hel coming to PC via Steam EA this autumn (2024).” – Jonas Ek, TGG. Source link #Jotunnslayer #Hordes #Hel #Early #Access #Preview #Thumb #Culture Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

****** says it's suspending the release of Israeli hostages – BBC.com ****** says it's suspending the release of Israeli hostages – BBC.com ****** says it’s suspending the release of Israeli hostages BBC.comHamas says hostage-prisoner exchange scheduled for Saturday will be delayed over alleged Israeli truce violations The Times of IsraelHamas suspends Gaza hostage releases until further notice, citing Israeli violations The Jerusalem PostHamas accuses Israel of ceasefire violations and says it will delay next hostage release YahooHamas Says It Will Delay Hostage Release Planned for Saturday Until Further Notice Haaretz Source link #****** #it039s #suspending #release #Israeli #hostages #BBC.com Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

Top 10 Soulslikes You're Not Playing Top 10 Soulslikes You're Not Playing Soulslikes are punishingly difficult but amongst the most compelling games. Power Up Gaming goes through the top ten Soulslikes you’re likely not playing. Source link #Top #Soulslikes #You039re #Playing Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

Oliver Ryan suspended as Labour MP over Whatsapp messages Oliver Ryan suspended as Labour MP over Whatsapp messages Kate Whannel Political reporter BBC Burnley MP Oliver Ryan has been suspended from the Labour parliamentary party over his membership of a WhatsApp group which contained offensive messages. Ryan was summoned to a meeting with Chief Whip Sir Alan Campbell, after the Mail on Sunday published the messages. Ahead of the meeting he issued an apology in which he said the comments in the group had been “completely unacceptable” and he regretted “not speaking out at the time”. In his statement, Ryan said: “I did not see every message, but I accept responsibility for not being more proactive in challenging what was said.” He added: “I also made some comments myself which I deeply regret and would not make today and for that, I wholeheartedly apologise.” The messages appear to show Ryan, who is gay, mocking a Labour MP for his sexuality, and denigrating the vice-chairman of the local Labour Party. He becomes the second MP to be suspended over their participation in the WhatsApp group, following Andrew Gwynne who was also sacked as a health minister. This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version. You can receive Breaking News on a smartphone or tablet via the BBC News App. You can also follow @BBCBreaking on X to get the latest alerts. Source link #Oliver #Ryan #suspended #Labour #Whatsapp #messages Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 Had a Huge Weekend On Steam, And It May Get Even ******* Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 Had a Huge Weekend On Steam, And It May Get Even ******* Since it’s only February, it might be too soon to say that the action-RPG Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 is going to be a game of the year contender. But this title’s popularity is already exploding. After launching on Steam last week with 150,000 players concurrently, the game hit an even larger peak over the weekend. SteamDB has shared a chart of Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2’s performance, and it rose from 176,000 players on February 5 to 190,000 on February 7. During the weekend, the game reached its current record of 256,206 concurrent players before settling back down to 188,000 players today. Regardless, the upwards trajectory of this title is impressive and it appears to still have room to grow. The game is also available on Xbox Series X|S and PlayStation 5, so the Steam numbers may only represent a small part of the overall picture. Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 has also been highly rated on GameSpot’s sister site, Metacritic, with an aggregate score of 88. GameSpot’s review of Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 gave it a 9/10. Senior designer Ondřej Bittner recently shared the influence that The Elder Scrolls games have had on Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2, particularly The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind and The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion. The game also sold 1 million copies in a single day. It’s an intricately created world, and even the smallest details seem to matter, including NPCs’ aversion to your character if you don’t bother to bathe. Warhorse Studios has also laid out its roadmap for Kingdom Come 2’s post-release content, which means players may be living in this world for some time to come. Source link #Kingdom #Deliverance #Huge #Weekend #Steam #******* Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]

If you want to know who will win the AI wars, just watch these two Super Bowl ads from Google and ChatGPT If you want to know who will win the AI wars, just watch these two Super Bowl ads from Google and ChatGPT If you’re looking for a Super Bowl LIX game recap, you’ve tapped the wrong link. I want to talk about this year’s Super Bowl ads, or more specifically a pair of tech-related ads, especially the one that had me reaching for the Kleenex and put the ongoing AI wars into a fresh perspective. I’m old enough to remember a time when the Super Bowl ads were just about Pepsi, McDonald’s, Wendy’s, Doritos, beer, and the newest cars. Super Bowl LIX was another reminder that these days nothing drives ad dollars and, perhaps, consumer interest like technology. Woven in between oddball AI slots like recreating football icon Jimmy Johnson for a simultaneously warm and creepy tribute were a whole lot of tech ads. T-Mobile ran an ad introducing its new Satellite cell service, and Square Space confusingly employed indie actor Barry Keoghan to pitch personal website building. For me, though, nothing generated as much interest, engagement and emotion, along with some head-scratching, as a pair of AI-focused commercials, one from Google for the Pixel 9 phone running Gemini Live and the other from OpenAI, plugging ChatGPT. ****** and white ChatGPT | The Intelligence Age – YouTube Watch On OpenAI’s minute-long ChatGPT spot provoked the head-scratching. The lack of a voice-over, or color (beyond ****** and white), and use of pointillism-style dots to create imagery, made it almost impossible at first to divine whose commercial I was watching. Granted, the music is sort of catchy and the imagery of things like flames, horses racing, corn blooming, ships sailing the high seas, trains racing toward you, and light bulbs is sort of compelling in a, “What the hell am I watching?” sort of way. But the key to a good Super Bowl ad is to grab people within the first 10 seconds, and OpenAI failed in that regard. I appreciated that the imagery was growing more refined and clearer – the dots kept getting smaller to represent ever-more complex imagery – but I still didn’t get it. More than halfway through, there was some historical audio from a newscast, the Apollo 11 mission to the moon, and even the iconic modem handshake sound (ask your parents). Finally, with just 20 seconds left, we hear someone ask an AI chatbot to summarize… er… something. The request audio started overlapping so I couldn’t tell who was asking what. One has to wonder if anyone at OpenAI even understands people. The on-screen text says, ‘All progress has a starting point.’ Okay, sure. Whatever that means. Then you hear the more recognizable ChatGPT voice, and we see the first color of the entire ad, ChatGPT’s blue voice chatbot icon, and we hear ‘What do you want to create next?’ The spot ends with ‘ChatGPT’ in a large font, and then the OpenAI interwoven icon. This is a commercial created by someone who thinks, “If they’re smart enough, they’ll get it. We’re creating something new here. Let’s be mysterious, charismatic, obtuse even. Everyone will love it and remember it.” I wonder if the only ‘person’ they showed this ad to was a version of ChatGPT, one of the models that can tell you about any photo or video you show it. Perhaps ChatGPT watched it and said “I see a series of dots and many moving images. This all represents ChatGPT (me).” Whoever created the ad likely fixated on the words “moving images” and assumed they’d struck a chord. And they did – one of confusion. One has to wonder if anyone at OpenAI even understands people. Have they spent so much time in the bowels of ChatGPT’s various powerful models that they’ve forgotten what it’s like to be human, or even to talk to a human? Moving images Dream Job | Google Pixel SB Commercial 2025 – YouTube Watch On The best Super Bowl LIX ads told a story: a horse rescuing a beer keg (trust me, it’s better than it sounds); David Beckham discovering he has a secret twin (clever, funny) Matthew McConaughey showing how football might have been created just so we could eat more food. I’d argue that story-telling is a good rule of thumb for almost any TV commercial. Google’s Pixel ad, entitled ‘Dream Job’, was sneaky. It grabbed my attention from the start with a refrigerator featuring family shots and a guy clearly trying to find a job. Google didn’t try to hide the product or its intentions; the middle-aged guy is clearly holding a Pixel 9 phone and he’s workshopping an interview pitch. From this point forward, though, Google cleverly blends product utility and emotion. Google cleverly blends product utility and emotion. The guy’s pitch is dry and unemotional, but Google Gemini Live asks him a key question: “Tell me about the job that taught you the most.” What follows is a walk back through the man’s life as a stay-at-home dad, raising a little girl into a young woman. Each job experience he relates is actually about raising his daughter. When for example, we see an old video of him spoon-feeding his unhappy toddler daughter, he tells Gemini, “It was a role where I learned to take a lot of constructive criticism.” The whole two-minute spot is heartwarming. Gemini eventually asks, “When it comes to work, what motivated you?” as the images flash back through his child’s life right up to her high school graduation and his dropping her off for college. He answers, “I guess, knowing that people can depend on me.” Oh, but Google and Gemini are not done. Naturally, the daughter turns back and runs to the car to give her dad one more hug. This is a commercial about AI, right? So why am I crying?! Through my tears, I see that the ad has circled back to showing Gemini complimenting the dad on his answer and telling him he’s ready. The ad ends with the words “Google Pixel 9 with Gemini Live” and the dad beginning the real job interview. Does Google get us? Google managed to pull us along through a whole emotional journey while showing exactly how you might use its powerful AI chatbot. By focusing on our shared humanity, the ad made Gemini Live feel like something a human would use. If you’re a parent, the ad’s theme probably hits you like a gut punch. Even if you’re not, you’d be made of stone if it didn’t move you OpenAI had a big opportunity with its Super Bowl LIX commercial: it would reach at least 100 million people, and the ad’s message would probably define how consumers thought about ChatGPT for at least the next few months, if not longer. The problem is, the ad OpenAI delivered gave us nothing to think about it. It was about as inhuman and dispassionate as HAL 9000. Google, on the other hand, has been playing this game for longer (it ran its first Super Bowl ad 15 years ago) and understood the task at hand: connect with real people about something that is intrinsically artificial. Make them want to try it. Make them remember by imprinting an emotional note they won’t soon forget. Based on these ads, Google gets us, OpenAI does not. And that’s why Google Gemini may ultimately win this AI race. You might also like Source link #win #wars #watch #Super #Bowl #ads #Google #ChatGPT Pelican News View the full article at [Hidden Content]