How ******** warships encircled Australia – without Canberra even noticing
How ******** warships encircled Australia – without Canberra even noticing
It was a Virgin Australia pilot who first raised the alarm. At 9.58am on Friday Feb 21, the pilot intercepted a warning from the ******** navy: a flotilla of warships were conducting live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea, some 300 nautical miles off the eastern coast of Australia.
The message – broadcast on the 121.5 MHz emergency radio channel used by commercial pilots to communicate – was relayed to the air traffic controller, who then passed it to the military.
“At that stage we didn’t know whether it was a potential hoax or real,” Peter Curran, deputy chief executive of Airservices Australia, told a parliamentary hearing this week.
But the message was not a hoax.
In a highly unusual move, three ******** naval vessels dubbed Task Group 107 – including a Jiangkai-class frigate, a Renhai-class cruiser and a Fuchi-class replenishment vessel – were conducting exercises in Australia’s exclusive economic zone.
This area is beyond Australia’s territorial waters, but it has exclusive economic rights. To avoid any incidents, 49 flights were diverted.
Canberra is in a difficult position as it is keen not to damage improved diplomatic relations. Australia was hit hard by trade restrictions when it led the Five Eyes alliance to ban Huawei, the ******** tech corporation, and later when it called for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic.
Although Australia has rebuked Beijing for providing such short notice, the government stressed the naval exercises were not ********. China has countered that all criticism is “deliberately overhyped”.
But a week after the first exercises, as details drip out in senate hearings and the warships continue to circumvent Australia, the saga is continuing to dominate headlines Down Under.
And it has raised critical, uncomfortable questions. What were China’s intentions? Are Australia or New Zealand prepared to counter the Asian superpower?
‘Shouldn’t be shocked’
On the first point, analysts say that Beijing was delivering a message: we are a great military power.
Veerle Nouwens, executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies Asia, told The Telegraph that the live-fire exercises were a sign not just to Australia, but also to the US and its allies, that “China is capable of deploying at distance”.
“It’s a sign that China’s military capabilities shouldn’t be underestimated,” Ms Nouwens said.
He added that China is showing that “its ambitions over the past 10 years to evolve into a blue-water navy is coming to fruition”.
Beijing has certainly transformed its capacity at sea in the last decade. In 2015, its navy battle force stood at 255 vessels, according to the US Congressional Research Office – by 2025, that figure had jumped to 400.
“The growth and modernisation of China’s navy has gone hand-in-hand with an increasingly expeditionary strategy,” said Jennifer Parker, a former principal warfare officer in the Royal *********** Navy.
Writing in the *********** Financial Review, she said: “******** naval deployments to the Indian and Pacific oceans are on the rise, marked by the establishment of a naval base in Djibouti in 2017 and increasingly common Pacific port visits, including stops in Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea as well as hospital ship deployments to the South Pacific.
“Against this backdrop, Australia shouldn’t be shocked to see a ******** navy task group off our east coast.
“It’s rightly considered an uncommon occurrence, particularly since Australia’s east coast isn’t exactly on the way to anywhere … but we should expect it to become increasingly common.”
A show of strength
But China’s actions are likely also a “symbolic gesture of ‘equal treatment’”, according to Ms Nouwens. Amid the mounting battle for influence in the Indo-Pacific, Beijing may want to remind the US and its allies: if you poke us in our backyard, we’ll poke you back.
China considers both the Taiwan Strait and large chunks of the South China Sea as its own territorial waters.
“China likely wants to signal that if Australia and others can sail through and conduct exercises in what China considers its waters and neighbourhood, then China will do the same,” Ms Nouwens said.
“Australia and New Zealand continue to engage in and build their defence partnerships in the Asia-Pacific through diplomacy and exercises.
“This has included the South China Sea, while New Zealand made its first naval transit through the Taiwan Strait in seven years in October last year together with Australia.
“China often views these with suspicion, and sees them as confrontational and symbolic of part of wider US competition with China.”
Still, she added that it is significant that Beijing conducted the drills in the exclusive economic zone. It suggests the live-fire drills and long trek south were a show of strength, not an attempt to escalate.
Trade becoming a ‘straitjacket’
Events over the past week were also an important test of how prepared Australia and New Zealand are to respond to ******** aggression in the Indo-Pacific region.
According to Matthew Knot, The Sydney Herald’s national security correspondent, “the results so far look like a failure”. He argued that Anthony Albanese, Australia’s prime minister, downplayed the situation, while both the *********** Defence Force and the New Zealand Navy initially missed that the exercise was even happening.
Others have stressed that overreacting could be counterproductive, potentially undermining arguments used by the US and its allies around access to waters such as the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
Australia has also recently stabilised diplomatic relations with China, allowing the resumption of trade of goods including wine, beer and barley – a popular policy Mr Albanese will not want to jeopardise.
But analysts said this should not be a “straitjacket” that prevents criticism of Beijing.
However, an uncomfortable truth should not be ignored: Australia’s core vulnerabilities lie at sea. Australia’s navy has just 16 battle force vessels, “its smallest and oldest in decades” after “underinvestment by successive governments”.
“In a crisis or conflict, an adversary wouldn’t need to invade our shores to bring Australia’s economy – and by extension, our defence– to its knees,” said Ms Parker. “All it would have to do would be to cut off our critical seaborne supplies.”
She added that Australia cannot hope to match China’s naval might, and its security should continue to rely on strong alliances and partnerships. But even so, the country is coming up short.
Ms Parker said: “China’s naval demonstration on Australia’s east coast should serve a reminder of our vulnerability, and a warning that addressing this vulnerability requires Australia to truly recognise its place as a maritime power.”
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Trump’s diplomatic conflict and economic assault
Trump’s diplomatic conflict and economic assault
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Feb. 28, 2025.
Brian Snyder | Reuters
To an economist, it might seem questionable for a country to impose tariffs on its biggest trading partners, especially when its economy is showing signs of shrinking, the stock market is sagging, prices remain stubbornly high and consumer sentiment is downbeat.
That’s because tariffs are “a tax on goods,” as Warren Buffett describes them, adding that they are “an act of war, to some degree.” In other words, they generally increase the cost of imported goods. Companies would either try absorbing the expense, which means a drop in revenue, or pass it on to consumers, possibly triggering an upward shock in prices.
But U.S. President Donald Trump said tariffs on Canada and Mexico are scheduled to go into effect Tuesday. His administration is also insisting such levies will not increase inflation, while encouraging allies to introduce tariffs on China as well.
There has been a lot of talk about U.S. exceptionalism last year, in reference to its economic and financial markets. With the country’s slowdown in both aspects so far in 2025 — as well as its abrupt pivot away from European Union allies in foreign policy regarding Russia and Ukraine — the theme remains in 2025.
What you need to know today
Trump-Zelenskyy clashUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy left the White House on Friday afternoon without a deal with the U.S, following a televised explosive clash with U.S. President Donald Trump in the Oval Office. Trump found the tone and body language of Zelenskyy objectionable, the White House told CNBC. But Zelenskyy said he doesn’t owe Trump an apology, in response to a question from a Fox News anchor. After that diplomatic fiasco, Zelenskyy was welcomed warmly by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, while Vice President JD Vance faced protestors during a ski trip in Vermont, U.S.
Bessent urges Canada to follow suit on China tariffsU.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Bloomberg interview on Friday that Mexico proposed to match the Trump administration’s tariffs on China, and urged Canada to follow suit. China’s Ministry of Commerce said Friday that it “firmly opposes” Trump’s move and vowed retaliation, if necessary. On Sunday, Bessent said tariffs are unlikely to raise inflation partly because China will “eat any tariffs.” Separately, Warren Buffett, in a new documentary, described tariffs as “a tax on goods” and “an act of war, to some degree.”
U.S. economy on course to shrinkThe U.S. Federal Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow tracker of incoming metrics is indicating that U.S. gross domestic product is on pace to shrink by 1.5% for the January-through-March *******, according to an update posted Friday morning. Fresh indicators showed that consumers spent less than expected during the inclement January weather and exports were weak, which led to the downgrade.
Accelerating factory activity in China China’s factory activity in February expanded at its fastest pace in three months, according to the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, which came in at 50.8. That’s higher than the Reuters poll forecast of 50.3 and the 50.1 reading in January. The official manufacturing PMI, which came out Saturday, also showed factory activity growing in February. A figure above 50 indicates an expansion in activity.
Red February for U.S. marketsMajor U.S. benchmarks climbed more than 1% Friday, but that wasn’t enough to save them from ending February in the red. The Nasdaq Composite was the worst performer for the month, losing nearly 4%. Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Monday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dipped 0.25% even as shares of China’s largest bubble tea chain Mixue surged more than 40% on its first day of trading.
U.S. strategic crypto reserve Trump announced in a Truth Social post on Sunday the creation of a strategic crypto reserve for the U.S. It will include bitcoin and ether, as well as XRP, Solana’s SOL token and Cardano’s ADA, and is the first time Trump has specified his support for a crypto “reserve” rather than a “stockpile.” The former assumes buying crypto in regular installments, while the latter would simply not sell any of the crypto currently held by the U.S. government.
[PRO] Falling benchmarks, more tariffs dueAll major U.S. benchmarks fell for the month in February. Heading into March, Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and additional ones on China, will kick in on Tuesday — if he sticks to his word — and the U.S. jobs report for February comes out Friday. Here’s what else to look out for this week.
And finally…
With the U.S. now having a more hostile stance to NATO, what are the security implications for Asia?
Zhangshuang | Moment | Getty Images
As Trump breaks ranks with Europe, are Asia-Pacific allies next?
Just over a month into the second term of Donald Trump’s presidency, U.S. foreign policy has been upended, especially in Europe. The U.S. has aimed tariffs at neighbors, lambasted traditional allies in Europe and taken a pro-Russian stance toward Ukraine in an about-face from the previous administration.
However, “U.S.-friendly Asian elites should not assume that U.S. assets will flow from being downsized in Europe to them in Asia,” wrote Adam Garfinkle, former distinguished visiting fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Asian allies should also consider that a diminished U.S. global military footprint could make the logistics of U.S. security pledges in Asia more difficult, Garfinkle wrote.
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Wildfires in Carolinas prompt evacuations, trigger S.C. state of emergency – Axios
Wildfires in Carolinas prompt evacuations, trigger S.C. state of emergency – Axios
Wildfires in Carolinas prompt evacuations, trigger S.C. state of emergency AxiosCarolina fires updates: Emergency declared in North and South Carolina as wildfires force evacuations The IndependentRed Flag warning in effect in parts of Lowcountry with heightened fire risk ABC NEWS 4Residents evacuated from Carolina Forest wildfire allowed to return home WMBF
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Afghans hiding in Pakistan live in fear of forced deportation
Afghans hiding in Pakistan live in fear of forced deportation
Azadeh Moshiri and Usman Zahid
BBC News, Islamabad
BBC
“Nabila’s” father served in the Afghan military and her family fear being deported back to Afghanistan
“I’m scared,” sobs Nabila.
The 10-year-old’s life is limited to her one-bedroom home in Islamabad and the dirt road outside it. Since December she hasn’t been to her local school, when it decided it would no longer accept Afghans without a valid Pakistani birth certificate. But even if she could go to classes, Nabila says she wouldn’t.
“I was off sick one day, and I heard police came looking for Afghan children,” she cries, as she tells us her friend’s family were sent back to Afghanistan.
Nabila’s not her real name – all the names of Afghans quoted in this article have been changed for their safety.
Pakistan’s capital and the neighbouring city of Rawalpindi are witnessing a surge in deportations, arrests and detentions of Afghans, the UN says. It estimates that more than half of the three million Afghans in the country are undocumented.
Afghans describe a life of constant fear and near daily police raids on their homes.
Some told the BBC they feared being killed if they went back to Afghanistan. These include families on a US resettlement programme, that has been suspended by the Trump administration.
Pakistan is frustrated at how long relocation programmes are taking, says Philippa Candler, the UN Refugee Agency’s representative in Islamabad. The UN’s International Organization for Migration (IOM) says 930 people were sent back to Afghanistan in the first half of February, double the figure two weeks earlier. At least 20% of those deported from Islamabad and Rawalpindi had documentation from the UN Refugee Agency, meaning they were recognised as people in need of international protection.
Hamed claims that calls to the UN refugee agency go answered.
But Pakistan is not a party to the Refugee Convention and has previously said it does not recognise Afghans living in the country as refugees. The government has said its policies are aimed at all ******** foreign nationals and a deadline for them to leave is looming. That date has fluctuated but is now set to 31 March for those without valid visas, and 30 June for those with resettlement letters.
Many Afghans are terrified amid the confusion. They also say the visa process can be difficult to navigate. Nabila’s family believes they have only one option: to hide. Her father Hamid served in the Afghan military, before the Taliban takeover in 2021. He broke down in tears describing his sleepless nights.
“I have served my country and now I’m useless. That job has doomed me,” he said.
His family are without visas, and are not on a resettlement list. They tell us their phone calls to the UN’s refugee agency go unanswered.
The BBC has reached out to the agency for comment.
The Taliban government has previously told the BBC all Afghans should return because they could “live in the country without any fear”. It claims these refugees are “economic migrants”.
But a UN report in 2023 cast doubt on assurances from the Taliban government. It found hundreds of former government officials and armed forces members were allegedly killed despite a general amnesty.
The Taliban government’s guarantees are of little reassurance to Nabila’s family so they choose to run when authorities are nearby. Neighbours offer each other shelter, as they all try to avoid retuning to Afghanistan.
The UN counted 1,245 Afghans being arrested or detained in January across Pakistan, more than double the same ******* last year.
Nabila says Afghans shouldn’t be forced out. “Don’t kick Afghans out of their homes – we’re not here by choice, we are forced to be here.”
There is a feeling of sadness and loneliness in their home. “I had a friend who was here and then was deported to Afghanistan,” Nabila’s mother Maryam says.
“She was like a sister, a mother. The day we were separated was a difficult day.”
I ask Nabila what she wants to do when she’s older. “Modelling,” she says, giving me a serious look. Everyone in the room smiles. The tension thaws.
Her mother whispers to her there are plenty of other things she could be, an engineer or a lawyer. Nabila’s dream of modelling is one she could never pursue under the Taliban government. With their restrictions on girls’ education, her mother’s suggestions would also prove impossible.
A new phase
Pakistan has a long record of taking in Afghan refugees. But cross-border attacks have surged and stoked tension between the two neighbours. Pakistan blames them on militants based in Afghanistan, which the Taliban government denies. Since September 2023, the year Pakistan launched its “******** Foreigners’ Repatriation Plan,” 836,238 individuals have now been returned to Afghanistan.
Amidst this current phase of deportations, some Afghans are being held in the Haji camp in Islamabad. Ahmad was in the final stages of the United States’ resettlement programme. He tells us when President Donald Trump suspended it for review, he extinguished Ahmad’s “last hope”. The BBC has seen what appears to be his employment letter by a Western, Christian non-profit group in Afghanistan.
Afghans have protested against the suspension of the US resettlement programme
A few weeks ago, when he was out shopping, he received a call. His three-year-old daughter was on the line. “My baby called, come baba police is here, police come to our door,” he says. His wife’s visa extension was still pending, and she was busy pleading with the police.
Ahmad ran home. “I couldn’t leave them behind.” He says he sat in a van and waited hours as police continued their raids. The wives and children of his neighbours continued trickling into the vehicle. Ahmad began receiving calls from their husbands, begging him to take care of them. They had already escaped into the woods.
His family was held for three days in “unimaginable conditions”, says Ahmad, who claims they were only given one blanket per family, and one piece of bread per day, and that their phones were confiscated. The Pakistani government says it ensures “no one is mistreated or harassed during the repatriation process”.
We attempt to visit inside Haji camp to verify Ahmad’s account but are denied entry by authorities. The BBC approached the Pakistani government and the police for an interview or statement, but no one was made available.
This woman claims her sister has been detained in the Haji camp in Islamabad
Scared of being detained or deported, some families have chosen to leave Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Others tell us they simply can’t afford to.
One woman claims she was in the final stages of the US resettlement scheme and decided to move with her two daughters to Attock, 80km (50 miles) west of Islamabad. “I can barely afford bread,” she says.
The BBC has seen a document confirming she had an interview with the IOM in early January. She claims her family is still witnessing almost daily raids in her neighbourhood.
A spokesman for the US embassy in Islamabad has said it is in “close communication” with Pakistan’s government “on the status of Afghan nationals in the US resettlement pathways”.
Outside Haji camp’s gates, a woman is waiting. She tells us she has a valid visa but her sister’s has expired. Her sister is now being held inside the camp, along with her children. The officers would not let her visit her family, and she is terrified they will be deported. She begins weeping, “If my country was safe, why would I come here to Pakistan? And even here we cannot live peacefully.”
She points to her own daughter who is sitting in their car. She was a singer in Afghanistan, where a law states women cannot be heard speaking outside their home, let alone singing. I turn to her daughter and ask if she still sings. She stares. “No.”
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Spring is “fastest-warming” season in the ***
Spring is “fastest-warming” season in the ***
Data given to BBC Weather by Nature’s Calendar, external – a citizen science project by the Woodland Trust – demonstrates how climate change is triggering natural events.
Since 2000 they have used public sightings of plants, animals and fungi to log the effects of weather and climate on nature.
Alex Marshall from Nature’s Calendar explained how important the data is to “see how nature is responding to our changing climate”.
Looking at when bluebells and frogspawn start to appear in the spring shows some clear trends over time.
Both are appearing earlier in April and March respectively.
Frogspawn sightings were the earliest on record in 2024.
First sightings averaged across the *** on 24 February, 17 days before the benchmark or average date, according to Nature’s Calendar.
This year, frogspawn has already been spotted in southern England with early indications that when all data is in, the average sightings will be on par with last.
Alex Marshall from Nature’s Calendar said: “In general, spring is getting earlier due to higher temperatures, particularly at the start of the season.
“We’ve already had one record of common frog tadpoles from Cornwall on 16 February, the first tadpole record of the year.
“Warmer weather at the end of winter tricks species like the frog into thinking it’s time to start reproducing.
“That becomes a problem, though, if some early March frosts occur which can kill the developing tadpoles…one negative impact of them coming out a bit early.”
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Former West Coast Eagles coach Adam Simpson admits Harley Reid’s body not AFL ready, but backs his progress
Former West Coast Eagles coach Adam Simpson admits Harley Reid’s body not AFL ready, but backs his progress
Former West Coast coach Adam Simpson says teenage sensation Harley Reid’s body is not yet at AFL standard but was adamant he was heading in the right direction.
The ex-leader — who was axed mid-season last year — said it was unrealistic the midfielder’s physique would be a “finished product” at 19-years-old and that it was not linked to his attitude or training standards.
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Simpson said it would take time for the rising star to be fully football fit.
“He’s a good trainer, but that’s the thing, he’s working on his body and getting it AFL ready which is going to take longer than a (Nick) Daicos who comes in fully prepared – elite preparation, diet…whatever he learnt.
“So Harley’s still learning some of those things so that will take a little bit of time.
“His body is not in AFL condition in terms of AFL ready – so dealing with 50kms during the week of training and backing it up day after day.
“I”m assuming – and I haven’t seen Harley or what they’ve done over preseason in the last six months – but there’s some work to be done just on getting AFL ready.”
“He’s not lazy, he doesn’t not like it, it’s just going to take a bit of time.”
Simpson’s comments come on the back of a number of critics questioning Reid’s training habits amid his interrupted pre-season where he was often on lighter duties.
Among them was Channel 7 commentator Kane Cornes, who bluntly declared the teenager needed to “learn” how to train.
“Why is his body letting him down? Has he done the work? Is he prepared? Does he have the elite habits that are required? Is his body breaking down for reasons within his control? These are all questions that we can’t answer, I’ve got my suspicions,” the former Port Adelaide player said.
Camera IconHarley Reid receives treatment at Eagles training. Credit: Riley Churchman/The West ***********
“He’s 19. I don’t think he’s yet training at the level that is required and is not living to elite standards that some other players are — but that’s okay, some players take five or six years to get that. I hope he gets it sooner. Just temper your expectations I reckon of what Harley Reid is going to deliver (in 2025).”
Speaking on SEN on Monday, Simpson also weighed in on Reid’s frustrations over getting tagged in a number of matches last year, including the round 12 clash against St Kilda where he was ultimately banned, costing him the rising star award.
“He’s going to have to work on that,” Simpson the ex-Eagles coach said.
“Until he gets some support around him that he doesn’t have to be the guy that does everything and he just compliments a really good midfield.
“If you go into the Fremantle side and you’re Harley Reid he’s going to have a lot more opportunity but when they rely on him it makes it more difficult and he’s going to get tagged so that’s definitely something he’s going to have to work through.”
Reid played in Saturday’******-out against North Melbourne in Bunbury after missing the Richmond match simulation last month, having four disposals on limited game time.
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Students use same needle to tattoo each other in class
Students use same needle to tattoo each other in class
Students use same needle to tattoo each other in class
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Brazil’s bond market could be an ‘oasis’ amid global trade tensions
Brazil’s bond market could be an ‘oasis’ amid global trade tensions
A Brazilian flag.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
Brazil’s government bonds could become an “oasis” for some investors, analysts told CNBC, particularly as global trade tensions fester.
The bond market of Latin America’s largest economy is driven more by idiosyncratic factors such as fiscal policy and inflation outlook rather than by global sentiment, said Viktor Zvabo, investment director on the emerging markets debt team at abrdn.
Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield currently stands at 15.267%, marking a more than 40% jump compared to a year ago, data from LSEG showed.
“Brazil offers one of the highest real rates of all government bond markets,” Zvabo said.
Its yields are significantly higher compared to other emerging market counterparts. For example, yields on Chile’s 10-year government bond yields are hovering around 5.939%, while Mexico’s 10-year government bond is around 9.487%.
A ********* mix of sticky inflation and uncertainty over the Brazil’s fiscal outlook are the main drivers for the country’s high yield, especially in recent months, market watchers told CNBC.
“Over the last five years, Brazil has been at the bottom of the Latin America league table, slightly ahead only of Chile and Colombia,” said Gustavo Medeiros, head of research at Ashmore Group, an investment management firm dedicated to emerging markets. Medeiros added that Uruguay and Mexico offered the best total returns over the past five years.
Brazil, however, now appears poised to outshine its regional peers.
“Year-to-date [Brazil] is the best performing local market, as bonds retraced from c. 16% to c. 14.6%, and the Brazilian real appreciated from 6.2 to 5.8 against the dollar,” Medeiros said.
A unique bond market
The Brazilian bond market is rather unique, with price action being dominated by local fast money, abrdn’s Zvabo said.
“This contributes to the high risk premium and the large bond market and currency moves,” he added.
“Due to this idiosyncratic nature, the central bank of Brazil’s monetary policy can and does deviate from the rate cycles of the advanced economies and even its regional peers,” Zvabo said.
Since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returned to the presidency of Brazil in January 2023, the country’s economy has been navigating a complex set of challenges and opportunities, such as the high inflation rate inherited from the previous administration.
Lula has embarked on substantial spending programs, which raised questions about the sustainability of the country’s public debt. Brazil’s public debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) currently stands at 76.1%.
Adding to its idiosyncrasy, market watchers told CNBC that they deem Brazil to be relatively insulated from global trade rifts given its moderate trade ties with the U.S.
Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at the Mercosur Summit.
Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
The threat of protectionist trade policies from the U.S. has negatively impacted sentiment for many emerging market assets, but Brazil is unlikely to be a primary target in U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war, according to Noah Wise, Allspring Global Investments’ senior portfolio manager for the plus fixed income team.
Brazilian assets have seen a recovery so far in 2025, with the currency strengthening over 4% against the greenback since the start of the year. The Brazilian stock market has also made progress, with the Ibovespa rising over 12% year-to-date, according to data from LSEG.
Wise said he has started to add Brazilian government bonds back into his portfolio following its “significant performance” in recent months, after previously reducing allocations to Brazilian government bonds by over 50% in 2024 when the country’s fiscal situation deteriorated.
As the market spotlight turn to tariffs and geopolitics, Brazilian assets’ high carry and relatively low chance of getting hit by U.S. trade policy make them attractive in the near term, said Ning Sun, State Street Global Markets’ senior emerging market strategist.
An ‘oasis’ for some investors?
The Brazilian bond market is proving “very uncorrelated” to all other bond markets, said George Efstathopoulos, portfolio manager at Fidelity International.
“Brazil local currency bonds could very well be an ‘oasis’ for Brazil-based investors especially, who don’t have to worry about FX risks,” Efstathopoulos said.
Local investors can get high nominal yields that far eclipse inflation levels but also competitive returns, Efstathopoulos told CNBC. However, for overseas investors, the foreign exchange risk is real, especially given the large depreciation last year, the portfolio manager added.
“We believe the rewards compensate more than adequately for the risk,” said Zsolt Papp, JPMorgan Asset Management’s investment specialist for emerging markets debt.
“Gaining access to the Brazilian government bond market through actively managed funds, offers investors diversification of return sources and active risk management,” Papp said.
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Miley Cyrus stuns at the Oscars in Alexander McQueen gown and bleached eyebrows – ABC News
Miley Cyrus stuns at the Oscars in Alexander McQueen gown and bleached eyebrows – ABC News
Miley Cyrus stuns at the Oscars in Alexander McQueen gown and bleached eyebrows ABC NewsOscars 2025: Miley Cyrus is Unrecognizable Without Eyebrows on Date Night With Maxx Morando – E! Online E! NEWSMiley Cyrus and Maxx Morando Make Their Awards Show Debut as a Couple at the 2025 Oscars ELLEMiley Cyrus Just Made a Nod to Her Bangerz Era With This Intense Look at the 2025 Oscars Yahoo EntertainmentMiley Cyrus Looks Unrecognizable With Bleached Eyebrows at the 2025 Oscars InStyle
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Warren Buffett calls Trump’s tariffs a tax on goods, says ‘the Tooth Fairy doesn’t pay ‘em’
Warren Buffett calls Trump’s tariffs a tax on goods, says ‘the Tooth Fairy doesn’t pay ‘em’
Legendary investor Warren Buffett made a rare comment on President Donald Trump’s tariffs, saying punitive duties could trigger inflation and hurt consumers.
“Tariffs are actually, we’ve had a lot of experience with them. They’re an act of war, to some degree,” Mr Buffett said.
His conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway has large businesses in insurance, railroad, manufacturing, energy and retail. He made the remarks in an interview with CBS News’ Norah O’Donnell for a new documentary on the late publisher of the Washington Post, Katharine Graham.
“Over time, they are a tax on goods. I mean, the Tooth Fairy doesn’t pay ’em.” Mr Buffett said. “And then what? You always have to ask that question in economics. You always say, ‘And then what?’”
This marks the first public remark from the 94-year-old “Oracle of Omaha” on Trump’s trade policies. Last week, Trump announced that the sweeping 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada will go into effect March 4 and that China will be charged an additional 10 per cent tariff on the same date. China has vowed to retaliate.
During Trump’s first term, the Berkshire chair and CEO opined at length in 2018 and 2019 about the trade conflicts that erupted, warning that the Republican’s aggressive moves could cause negative consequences globally.
When asked about the current state of the economy by CBS, Buffett refrained from commenting on it directly.
“Well, I think that’s the most interesting subject in the world, but I won’t talk, I can’t talk about it, though. I really can’t,” Mr Buffett said.
The investing veteran has been in a defensive mode over the past year as he rapidly dumped stocks and raised a record amount of cash. Some read Mr Buffett’s conservative moves as a bearish call on the market and the economy, while others believe he’s preparing the conglomerate for his successor by paring outsized positions and building up cash.
Market volatility has ramped up as of late as concerns grew about a slowing economy, unpredictable policy changes from Trump as well as overall stock valuations. The S&P 500 is up just about 1 per cent this year.
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Democratic activists fueled anti-Trump protests at GOP town halls but also rage at their own party
Democratic activists fueled anti-Trump protests at GOP town halls but also rage at their own party
WASHINGTON (AP) — Furious Democrats filled Republican town halls across America last week to protest President Donald Trump’s power grab in Washington.
But in recent days, the activists behind those protests have turned their anger toward elected officials in their own party, who they believe are not fighting the Republican president and billionaire adviser Elon Musk with the urgency, aggression or creativity that the moment deserves.
“Are we in a constitutional crisis or not?” said Ezra Levin, co-founder of the anti-Trump resistance group Indivisible, which encouraged progressives to attend town halls and protest outside Tesla dealerships.
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Of Democratic leaders, he added, “There’s zero tactical or innovative leadership.”
Indeed, as Trump moves to consolidate control in Washington with little regard for precedent or judges ruling against him, the nation’s most powerful Democrats are offering mixed messages while struggling to break from the rules and norms that have long governed U.S. politics.
Key Democratic governors have spoken out with varying levels of concern, but they have also promised to work with the Trump administration to ensure resources flow to their states.
House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York has taken heat for spending part of last week’s congressional recess promoting a children’s book he wrote about democracy. Asked about activists’ frustration, he pointed to his party’s united opposition to the GOP budget bill and to the more than 100 lawsuits brought against the president.
“We have to continue to push back aggressively in every way possible in defense of the American people,” Jeffries insisted, acknowledging voters’ “concern, fear, shock and anxiety.”
Carville’s strategy of standing back
Republicans have control of the House and Senate. Some Democrats think they are nearing the limit of what they can do to stop Trump, and so the party should stand back.
Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville said as much out loud earlier in the week in a New York Times opinion piece in which he encouraged his party to embrace a “strategic retreat” to let Trump and his Republican allies take the blame for the chaos they create.
“It’s time for Democrats to embark on the most daring political maneuver in the history of our party: roll over and play dead,” Carville wrote.
The piece infuriated Democratic activists. But some officials in Washington quietly welcomed Carville’s call for Democrats to get out of Trump’s way.
“The Carville point was that there’s got to be an opportunity for people to start experiencing and coming to their own conclusion,” said Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt.
“What’s easier said than done on Carville is that people are freaked out and they do want us to do something and we want to do something,” Welch added. “That’s the dilemma.”
Democrats must be ‘more imaginative and ingenious’
In Trump’s first month in office, he and Musk have moved with extraordinary speed to cut tens of thousands of jobs from the federal workforce. The president is trying to eliminate entire agencies established by federal law. He has signed dozens of executive orders and begun to exact retribution against perceived political enemies across the government, firing independent inspectors general, federal prosecutors and FBI agents involved with his previous prosecutions.
Trump and his allies have lashed out against judges and threatened to defy court rulings.
So far, neither Jeffries nor Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York has been willing to employ perhaps the most dramatic tool at their disposal to stop Trump: their vote — and the ability to withhold their vote in protest — even if it means shutting down the government.
There are some Democrats who want their party to pursue a shutdown on March 14 when current funding expires. But historically, shutdowns have been a Republican strategy only. Democrats generally see themselves as the political grown-ups in the room.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., said Democrats “need to be more imaginative and ingenious and aggressive in our tactics.”
“But that should not mean that we depart from basic values,” he said in an interview. “Court orders should be obeyed. We have to respect the rule of law. But we also have to be more nimble and agile in the tactics and tools we use, and be exhaustive in every legal means of fighting back.”
Governors speak out but also try to work with Trump
Democratic governors — and 2028 presidential prospects — have spoken out with varying levels of concern.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer dined at the White House with Trump last week as part of the National Governors Association annual meeting. Afterward, she told Michigan media that she continues to look for “common ground” with the president.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who this past week announced a new podcast featuring Trump’s “Make America Great Again” allies, has softened his stance on Trump in an effort to ensure the Republican administration doesn’t block disaster funding for the state’s devastating wildfires.
Whitmer and Newsom have also been sharply critical of Trump throughout their careers. At the same time, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker used his recent State of the State address to liken Trump’s power grabs to the conditions that preceded the Holocaust.
“It took the Nazis one month, three weeks, two days, eight hours and 40 minutes to dismantle a constitutional republic,” Pritzker charged. “All I’m saying is when the five-alarm fire starts to burn, every good person better be ready to man a post with a bucket of water if you want to stop it from raging out of control.”
Patience wearing thin among the Democratic base
Maine Sen. Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, took to the Senate floor last week to call on his colleagues to “wake up.” In a subsequent interview, King described what he called Trump’s “assault on the Constitution — the most serious in the history of the country.”
The senator said Democrats cannot simply assume that the courts will rein in Trump. But he also acknowledged that they had relatively few tools to push back as the ********* party in both chambers of Congress.
“We’re in uncharted territory. There’s no playbook for this,” King said. “Everybody’s trying to figure out what’s effective.”
The Democratic base is not in a patient mood.
Lori Goldman, who leads the Michigan-based activist group known as Fems for Dems, was enraged when asked for her assessment of Democratic leaders.
“We need all hands on deck, and we’re not getting it,” she said. “There’s no room or time or space to act like we’re in normal times.”
Klein, of Indivisible, is growing increasingly pessimistic that Democratic leaders in Congress are listening even after his group took credit for town halls that shaped the debate on Capitol Hill.
“I was hopeful that they were coming over to our side to lead the opposition, and in the absence of that, I think you’re going to just see distance between them and their own constituents grow and grow and grow,” he said. “And that doesn’t have positive consequences.”
___
Peoples reported from New York. Associated Press writer Leah Askarinam contributed to this report.
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Sean Baker Makes Oscar History, Achieving a Feat Coppola, Cuaron and Walt Disney Never Could – Hollywood Reporter
Sean Baker Makes Oscar History, Achieving a Feat Coppola, Cuaron and Walt Disney Never Could – Hollywood Reporter
Sean Baker Makes Oscar History, Achieving a Feat Coppola, Cuaron and Walt Disney Never Could Hollywood ReporterOscars 2025: ‘Anora’ dominates with 5 Academy Awards, Adrien Brody wins Best Actor for 2nd time and a full list of winners Yahoo EntertainmentAnd the Oscar Goes to … Sue VultureOscars 2025 Winners: ‘Anora’ Leads With 5 Wins Followed by ‘The Brutalist’ With 3 VarietySean Baker Wins Best Director Oscar for ‘Anora’ The New York Times
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Puzzle & Dragons partners with light novel label GA Bunko for special collab heroes and more
Puzzle & Dragons partners with light novel label GA Bunko for special collab heroes and more
Is It Wrong to Try to Pick Up Girls in a Dungeon? and Goblin Slayer join the fray
Special bundles for purchase in the shop
Collab runs until March 16th
GungHo Online Entertainment, Inc. is adding more mayhem to the match-3 madness that is Puzzle & Dragons with a new collab, because isekai heroes are always trendy, aren’t they?
In particular, the light novel label GA Bunko is joining the fray, which means you can expect the Egg Machine Lineups to reward you with Bell Cranel from Is It Wrong to Try to Pick Up Girls in a Dungeon?, Goblin Slayer from Goblin Slayer, and Yuji from My Isekai Life: I Gained a Second Character Class and Became the Strongest Sage in the World!.
It’s a bit of a mouthful, but thankfully, you’ve got until March 16th to collect these new characters via the login bonuses or special crossover quests. For instance, the GA Bunko Quest will reward you with one Magic Stone each time you clear a Quest Level. You can also gather GA Bunko Collab Medals, which, in turn, can be used to redeem heroes at the Monster Exchange.
If you like teaming up with your online buddies, the Multiplayer! Juggernaut Descended! 3-player mode will reward you with a guaranteed Juggernaut. Plus, if you have a little bit of extra cash, special bundles will be available for purchase such as the 30 Magic Stones & Bell Cranel Egg Machine for $29.99.
All these are simply scratching the surface of the massive collab, which you can learn more about on the official website. Or, if you’re looking for something similar, we’ve got a list of the best match-3 puzzlers on Android too!
In the meantime, if you’re eager to join in on all the fun, you can do so by checking out Puzzle & Dragons on the App Store and on Google Play. It’s free-to-play with in-app purchases.
You can also join the community of followers on the official Twitter page to stay updated on all the latest developments, or take a little peek at the embedded clip above to get a feel of the vibes and visuals.
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2025 GWM Tank 300 price and specs
2025 GWM Tank 300 price and specs
The GWM Tank 300 is now available with diesel power, bringing greater payload and towing capacity figures to the large off-road SUV.
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World’s largest call center using AI to ‘neutralize’ Indian employees’ accents
World’s largest call center using AI to ‘neutralize’ Indian employees’ accents
Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what’s in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience.Generate Key Takeaways
Teleperformance SE, the largest call center operator on the planet, has come up with a way to mask the fact it operates in India for customers calling for support with their latest iPhone or Galaxy device.
In a new report from Bloomberg, Teleperformance shared that it invested $13 million in Sanas, an AI startup. Sanas has created technology that focuses on “reducing accent-based discrimination.” As Teleperformance puts it, the technology can “neutralize” accents.
SEE ALSO: Meta plans to launch standalone Meta AI app. OpenAI’s Sam Altman fires back.
“When you have an Indian agent on the line, sometimes it’s hard to hear, to understand,” Teleperformance Deputy Chief Executive Officer Thomas Mackenbrock told Bloomberg in an interview. Mackenbrock said that the AI technology can “neutralize the accent of the Indian speaker with zero latency.”
Sanas’ accent-neutralizing technology currently works on Indian and ********* accents. The company says that it’s working on deploying it for other accents, such as those found in Latin America.
The AI startup also provides a background noise removal feature in order to further mask any sort of ambient noise emanating from the call center employees’ location that may give away where they are based.
Teleperformance said that it’s also using AI tools for more common AI tasks, such as transcribing calls and coaching new employees. The company announced it would invest a further $104 million in AI during an investor call.
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Trump names 5 cryptocurrencies for national reserve, sending prices soaring – Al Jazeera English
Trump names 5 cryptocurrencies for national reserve, sending prices soaring – Al Jazeera English
Trump names 5 cryptocurrencies for national reserve, sending prices soaring Al Jazeera EnglishTrump announces strategic crypto reserve including bitcoin, Solana, XRP and more CNBCTrump’s Strategic Crypto Reserve And What It Means For Crypto And You ForbesTrump names cryptocurrencies in strategic reserve; prices spike CNNTrump announces US crypto reserve The Hill
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Dolphins brace for Cyclone Bennett as Gilbert steps up
Dolphins brace for Cyclone Bennett as Gilbert steps up
The Dolphins are preparing for a backs-against-the-wall Wayne Bennett to storm his old fortress rather than worrying about the possible impact of a cyclone ahead of their home clash with South Sydney.
Tropical Cyclone Albert is predicted to cross the southern Queensland coast on Thursday and bring havoc in its wake but the Dolphins, until told otherwise, will proceed to train as though Friday night’s NRL showdown at Suncorp Stadium will go ahead.
“It’s business as usual,” new Dolphins skipper Tom Gilbert said.
Gilbert was more concerned about his side not underestimating South Sydney as former Dolphins coach Wayne Bennett prepares to bring an undermanned squad to Brisbane.
Gilbert said “Cyclone Bennett” was capable of blowing hot just when pundits had tipped his side to run cold.
“Wayne was here last year when we lost a lot of players and we know what a wonderful job he can do under pressure,” Gilbert said.
“(Injured stars) Cameron Murray and Latrell Mitchell are class players but I have no doubt they have a lot of depth in their squad.
“We will have absolute respect for the Rabbitohs in our preparation this week and we know what any Wayne Bennett side can do.”
Gilbert said Bennett’s “inside knowledge” about the Dolphins was only natural but warned that would not be the coach’s focus. “Wayne played a huge role in our club and the funny thing is that the way we play this year will be a by-product of what he did the last two years,” Gilbert said.
“Wayne will be worried about the Rabbitohs.”
Gilbert will play his first NRL game since May, 2023 after recovering from a shoulder reconstruction and ACL rupture. He got through a recent trial against Gold Coast and said he was not nervous.
“It’s probably a different feeling just to be back playing to be honest. I’m looking forward to embracing this week,” Gilbert said.
“I am really happy to be back playing with the squad. Obviously leading the boys is going to be a privilege on Friday night.
“I don’t think I will (play) 80 (minutes) but I am fit enough and ready to do that. If the team needs me to, I will. I will put the team first.
“That is how everybody in the team will play and the expectation at the Dolphins.”
New head coach Kristian Woolf sat down with the four-man leadership group of Gilbert, Felise Kaufusi, Kenny Bromwich and Mark Nicholls to announce Gilbert as captain.
“We had a good discussion about why I got the role and the things I need to work on too,” Gilbert said.
“Like he said and I know, I am not the finished product. It was nice to have the sit down and find out that news. “He said not to change much. Obviously … actions are the things that matter the most.
“I’ve got to do a (coin) toss now and make any decision around that. Decisions on the field will come from me so I just have to be aware of where we are in a game and the situations to make sure I know the right things to do to suit our game plan.
“I’ve got smart players around me to help.”
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Popular lemonade recalled due to undeclared ingredient linked to *******
Popular lemonade recalled due to undeclared ingredient linked to *******
A popular lemonade recall has received an update, as the drink contains a food additive linked to an increased ******* risk.
On January 31, Oak Cliff Beverage Works issued a voluntary recall of its Beverage Base Lemonade, which was sold in three and five-gallon containers. The five-gallon products have a Best By date of January 1, 2026, while the three-gallon ones have a Best By date of December 12, 2025.
The recall involves 8,847 units of the lemonade, as noted by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Affected products were sold in eight states: Arkansas, California, Colorado, Kentucky, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas.
The product was recalled due to an undeclared presence of a synthetic food dye, Yellow 5, in the drink.
On February 25, the recall on the Beverage Base Lemonade was classified as a Class II recall. This classification means the recall is “a situation in which use of or exposure to a violative product may cause temporary or medically reversible adverse health consequences or where the probability of serious adverse health consequences is remote,” according to the FDA.
Various animal studies have linked Yellow 5, also known as tartrazine, to *******. As shown in a 2024 study published in the journal Science, the skin and muscle tissues of live mice turned transparent when tartrazine was applied to them.
A 2015 study published by Anticancer Research also found that Yellow 5 caused damage to human white blood cells after three hours of exposure to the synthetic dye. Ultimately, researchers found that being exposed to Yellow 5 over time can make tumor growth and ******* more likely.
The FDA has classified the Beverage Base Lemonade recall as Class II (Getty Images)
The classification of the recall, due to Yellow 5, comes after the FDA banned the dye known as Red 3 from the nation’s food supply. Red 3 has often been used in candies, cough syrup, baked goods, and frozen treats.
The agency said it was taking the action because studies found that the dye, also known as erythrosine, caused ******* in lab rats. A federal statute requires the FDA to ban any additive found to cause ******* in animals, though officials stressed that the way Red 3 leads to ******* in rats doesn’t happen in people.
Nine dyes, including Yellow 5, have been allowed in U.S. food. The other common color additives in food are Blue 1, Blue 2, Green 3, Red 40, and Yellow 6. Two permitted colors are used more rarely: Citrus Red 2 and Orange B.
There have already been a slew of food recalls in 2025. Earlier this month, Tri-Union Seafoods announced a voluntary recall of select canned tuna products sold under the Genova, Van Camp’s, H-E-B, and Trader Joe’s brands. These products were distributed nationwide at retailers such as Walmart, Trader Joe’s, Costco, Kroger, and Publix.
Tri-Union Seafoods initiated the recall after its supplier discovered a manufacturing defect in the tuna cans’ “easy open” lids. The defect could “compromise the integrity of the product seal (especially over time), causing it to leak, or worse, be contaminated with clostridium botulinum,” a bacteria that causes foodborne botulism and can be fatal.
Also in February, the FDA issued a report about 60 different baked goods from FGF, LLC, which were distributed in grocery stores throughout the U.S. The recall, which was completed in January, affected a total of 2,0176,614 cases of the different baked goods, due to the “potential for contamination with listeria,” a bacteria that can contaminate many foods and cause infections.
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With Cease-Fire Shaky, Israel and ****** Consider Both Diplomatic and Military Options – The New York Times
With Cease-Fire Shaky, Israel and ****** Consider Both Diplomatic and Military Options – The New York Times
With Cease-Fire Shaky, Israel and ****** Consider Both Diplomatic and Military Options The New York TimesWhite House backs Israel’s decision to halt Gaza aid shipments until ****** accepts ceasefire extension Fox NewsCulture minister decries Oscar win for ************-Israeli documentary on Israeli demolitions in ************ village The Times of IsraelIsrael is criticized after it bars Gaza aid to pressure ****** to accept a new ceasefire proposal The Associated PressLIVE: Israel accused of war crimes for blocking aid into Gaza Al Jazeera English
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Fremantle Dockers coach Justin Longmuir reveals plans for Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters during AFL season
Fremantle Dockers coach Justin Longmuir reveals plans for Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters during AFL season
Fremantle stars Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters have led the club brilliantly, but are now nearing the end and coach Justin Longmuir is assessing the best ways to manage the pair throughout the 2025 season
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Trump Administration Orders IRS Workers Back To Office, Ignoring Union Contract
Trump Administration Orders IRS Workers Back To Office, Ignoring Union Contract
The Trump administration has ordered employees who telework at the Internal Revenue Service to return to office this month, signaling it intends to ignore protections in the agency’s union contract.
The Treasury Department, which includes the IRS, issued a memo Friday saying it would “cancel” all regular telework agreements on March 8 for people who live within 50 miles of an office. They would be expected to report to work on March 10.
Many Treasury workers have remote-work protections in their collective-bargaining agreement. But the Treasury directive will require “100%” in-person work, “including members of a bargaining unit.”
In a subsequent phase of the plan, workers who live more than 50 miles from an office would be assigned to one, suggesting they would be required to commute long distances or move to keep their jobs.
There would only be “limited exceptions” to the plan, such as for military spouses, according to the memo.
The National Treasury Employees Union, which represents thousands of IRS workers and other Treasury employees, sent an email to members Friday calling the mandate a clear violation of its agreement. It described the policy as “outrageous.”
“We will file a national grievance and unfair labor practice charge that will cover each one of you, and we will vigorously fight to have this policy rescinded and restore the hard-earned contractual rights of our members,” the union said.
A Treasury employee, asking to speak on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation, told HuffPost that workers across the agency were “furious.”
The return-to-office mandate is part of the White House’s sweeping attack on the federal workforce.
The administration has fired probationary employees en masse, effectively shut down agencies unilaterally and tried to push out tens of thousands of civil servants through a deferred resignation offer called “Fork in the Road.” All those actions are being challenged in court as ********.
President Donald Trump talks with reporters before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, Friday, Feb. 28, 2025. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis) via Associated Press
The White House has been using a complete return-to-office mandate as one of its cudgels to make people quit. It has said that anyone who resigns under the “Fork” program would be exempt from the return and paid through September.
Federal unions have warned that many agencies literally don’t have the space for a full return-to-the-office. Noting that remote-work arrangements in the federal government long predated the pandemic.
Workers at several agencies were able to secure or extend telework arrangements under the administration of President Joe Biden, setting up a fight with the new White House. Trump has said he hates the union contracts with such protections and intends to throw them out.
In an earlier memo, the administration claimed union telework agreements that conflict with its own plans are “unlawful and cannot be enforced.”
The NTEU recommended employees follow the IRS’ order, “even though it violates the CBA.”
“If you do not comply with such directives, you may be subject to potential disciplinary action from the agency,” the union said.
Are you a federal employee with something to share? You can email our reporter here, or contact him over Signal at davejamieson.99.
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3 Key Charts Suggesting That the Markets Remain on a Ledge
3 Key Charts Suggesting That the Markets Remain on a Ledge
The market has taken a turn this past month, with volatility picking up and key technical indicators signaling caution. The , which had been trading within a well-defined range (Darvas Box) for the past four months, has now fallen sharply, testing a critical support level that has been in place since November 2024. The decline over the past week has been particularly notable, with the index dropping over 4% on heavy selling volume.
While the market remains at a technical inflection point, recent price action has been decisively bearish. The failure to break out of the top of its trading range and the strong downside momentum suggest that the risk of further declines is rising. Additionally, market breadth has deteriorated, with key risk-on assets—such as semiconductors, small caps, and discretionary stocks—underperforming defensive sectors like consumer staples (NYSE:.
In this month’s newsletter, we will examine three key charts that highlight the current state of the market: the (SPY) chart below, which is testing a key support level, a market breadth chart that illustrates the weakening internal structure of the market, and a relative strength chart that confirms investors have been rotating into defensive sectors.
Chart #1: SPY—Breaking Below Key Moving Averages
SPY has fallen below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages (closed above), signaling a shift in momentum. The index has also dropped from the upper boundary of its four-month Darvas Box down to its lower boundary. A decisive break below this level would turn this pattern into a topping formation, increasing the odds of lower prices in the near-term.
Key concerns:
The index has fallen over 4%, accompanied by heavy selling volume.
Momentum (MACD) has turned sharply negative, signaling downside momentum.
The RSI in the lowest panel is currently at 44—if further weakness pushes it below 30, it would have bearish implications.
If the index falls below support, the next key level to watch is approximately 5% lower.
The market is at a critical inflection point. A breakdown below support would signal further stock market weakness, while a decisive advance above resistance would have bullish implications especially if accompanied by outperformance by growth stocks and other risk-on assets.
Chart #2: Market Breadth—Warning Signs Under the Surface
While the has recently revisited its highs from late last year, market breadth is signaling a warning. Beneath the surface, breadth indicators have been deteriorating for months, raising concerns about the sustainability of the market’s current bull market advance.
This chart, which spans back to March 2020, includes the 2022 bear market and highlights a troubling pattern: negative divergences in key breadth indicators similar to those that preceded the last major market downturn.
NYSE New Highs – New Lows (Second Panel): While the index has reached levels comparable to previous highs, the number of stocks making new highs minus those making new lows has been trending downward since September 2024. This divergence suggests that fewer stocks are participating in the advance, a classic warning sign. Notably, a similar divergence in this indicator emerged months before the market topped in early 2022.
Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200-Day Moving Average (Third Panel): This measure has been declining since November 2024, despite the index remaining near its highs. Historically, when fewer stocks can stay above their long-term moving averages while the index holds steady, it signals internal market weakness. As with the New Highs – New Lows indicator, this type of divergence also appeared before the 2022 market peak.
Percentage of Stocks Above Their 50-Day Moving Average (Fourth Panel): This short-term breadth measure mirrors the behavior of the 200-day indicator. It, too, has been declining for months, reflecting near-term deterioration in individual stock performance. Like the longer-term indicator, a similar divergence appeared prior to the 2022 bear market.
These broad-based negative divergences suggest that the index’s recent strength has been driven by a narrowing group of stocks, a hallmark of a fragile market environment. While the NYSE Composite has not broken down yet, deteriorating participation increases the likelihood that weakness could spread more broadly.
Chart #3: Risk-On vs. Risk-Off—A Shift Toward Defensive Positioning
The final chart provides a crucial look at risk appetite in the market by comparing key risk-on areas of the market to the Consumer Staples ETF (), a defensive sector. Recent shifts in these relationships suggest investors have been rotating out of riskier assets and into more defensive names, signaling a more cautious stance.
S&P 500 & Trendline Break (Top Panel): The S&P 500 had been respecting an uptrend support line that defined the bull market advance since November 2023. However, with the recent decline, the index has fallen below this trendline for the first time, suggesting a possible shift in market structure.
Consumer Discretionary vs. Consumer Staples (Second Panel): This relative strength line, which had been rising—indicating risk-on behavior—topped at the end of January 2025 and has been falling sharply since. This reversal suggests investors have been rotating out of discretionary stocks, which tend to perform well in bullish environments, and into staples, a more defensive sector.
Small Caps vs. Consumer Staples (Third Panel): Small-cap stocks, which typically lead in strong market environments, have been underperforming consumer staples since November 2024. This continued decline reflects weakening confidence in riskier assets.
Semiconductor Stocks vs. Consumer Staples (Fourth Panel): The relative strength of semiconductor stocks—a key growth sector—against consumer staples has been falling since July 2024. This extended underperformance further reinforces the shift away from risk and toward defensive positioning.
Taken together, these relative strength trends highlight a broad shift in market sentiment. Investors have been gradually rotating into safer, defensive sectors while moving away from riskier, growth-oriented areas.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 remains within a four-month consolidation pattern, despite testing the lower boundary of that range this week. If the index can regain strength and break above this consolidation, especially alongside renewed leadership in risk-on assets, it would signal market resilience and present a more favorable environment for adding equity exposure.
Conversely, a decisive move below support would suggest that this consolidation has been a topping formation, increasing the probability of further downside in the near term.
Current Account Update
As market technicals deteriorated, I quickly reduced our equity allocation to zero in both our Conservative and Aggressive models. If conditions improve, I will quickly add equity exposure.
For now, the focus is on protecting client portfolios from the risks associated with current market weakness. We are in an environment where risk is elevated, and until the technical backdrop stabilizes, a defensive approach remains prudent.
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U.S.A.I.D. Memos Detail Human Costs of Cuts to Foreign Aid – The New York Times
U.S.A.I.D. Memos Detail Human Costs of Cuts to Foreign Aid – The New York Times
U.S.A.I.D. Memos Detail Human Costs of Cuts to Foreign Aid The New York TimesFunding freeze leaves Kansas farmers unpaid for work they already completed HPPR‘Heartbreaking’: Fired USAID employee speaks out after gathering belongings from office CNN
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#U.S.A.I.D #Memos #Detail #Human #Costs #Cuts #Foreign #Aid #York #Times
Pelican News
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Sean Lewis Worthington: Albany man who narrowly avoided Albany Highway ****** and slapped another driver fined
Sean Lewis Worthington: Albany man who narrowly avoided Albany Highway ****** and slapped another driver fined
An Albany man who slapped another driver in a roadside altercation and drove dangerously on Albany Highway has been fined $1500.
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#Sean #Lewis #Worthington #Albany #man #narrowly #avoided #Albany #Highway #****** #slapped #driver #fined
Pelican News
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17 Funny Job Posts That Made Me Genuinely HOWL With Laughter
17 Funny Job Posts That Made Me Genuinely HOWL With Laughter
Editor’s Note: While we can’t endorse what X has become, we can bring you the worthwhile moments that still exist there, curated and free of the surrounding chaos.
Congrats, you made it through another work week! For your prize, please enjoy these hilarious job posts from the last week.
And make sure to follow these people if you liked their tweets!
1.
Tweet that says “our soul has a ****** and it’s broken on the first day you go to work”
2.
Anne Hathaway smiles on Zoom
3.
Patrick Star appears shocked at something in front of him
4.
@Poundcakemo_ / Style Network / Via Twitter: @Poundcakemo_
5.
Goofy looking back at his bed as he leaves for work, emphasizing reluctance
6.
Tweet by user expressing surprise at seeing unexpected content on Instagram
7.
Tweet about a student being scared of skeletons, and the teacher’s humorous response that made the student stop speaking to the teacher
8.
@zipoffs / Via Twitter: @zipoffs
9.
Snoop Dogg scowls while peering out of a car window in a scene from Baby Boy
10.
Image shows a reflective man in a dark setting
11.
Tweet comparing Chick-fil-A’s Sunday closure due to religious reasons with Taco Bell’s humorously named sauce
12.
@invis4yo / First We Feast / Via Twitter: @invis4yo
13.
A tweet jokingly says they applied to WWE and now have to fight ****** Orton next week
14.
@tomiwebstr / ABC / Via Twitter: @tomiwebstr
15.
Lena Dunham sitting down in a printed button up shirt in a scene from Girls
16.
@niggaolas / Saucy Santana / Via Twitter: @niggaolas
17.Finally:
Tweet that says “Work is getting in the way of my irresponsibilities”
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#Funny #Job #Posts #Genuinely #HOWL #Laughter
Pelican News
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