How Iran may have breached the world’s best air defences

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How Iran may have breached the world’s best air defences

Iran

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in a massive aerial barrage on ******* on Tuesday –

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by ******** air defences.

But some made it through multiple layers of surface-to-air missile systems that are in place to defend the ******* state.

Footage circulating on social media appeared to show streaks of light smashing into the ground and the subsequent damage resulting from the strikes.

It prompted questions over whether Iran had successfully defeated one of the world’s most robust air-defence systems.

While analysts have cautioned that it’s too early to tell, there are a few telltale signs to look out for when assessing the system’s performance.

Timing

When Iran

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, the strike was telegraphed so far ahead that most of the world had a week to prepare.

******* and its US, *** and ********* allies were given sufficient time to ready themselves to deploy fighter jets and warships to help take down the Iranian barrage of drones and missiles.

“This one was in relative terms more surprising,” Samuel Hickey, of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, said.

More advanced weaponry

In Iran’s

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, it used a combination of some 300 missiles and drones.

While the combined number is greater than the 200 fired late on Monday, the initial strike was made up mostly of cruise missiles and drones.

“It used slower cruise missiles and drones – ******** drones – that can be shot out of the sky by aircraft,” Mr Hickey said.

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Ballistic missiles can fly at hypersonic speeds above mach-5 making them much ******* to intercept by fighter jets or ground-based systems.

“Fighter jets are less likely to have been a huge factor,” Mr Hickey added.

Conserving ammunition

Air defence is a costly business.

It was estimated the April ******* cost ******* and its allies around £1.1 billion ($1.5 billion) to head off the barrage.

There is also the problem that interceptor rockets are limited in numbers. Western efforts to help Ukraine defend its cities against Russian bombardments has used up significant resources in this area.

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*******’s air defences intercept a missile near the northern city of Baqa al-Gharbiya on Tuesday – GETTY IMAGES

With both ******* and Ukraine largely reliant on the US for these interceptors, decisions have to be made.

“We still don’t know how many missiles ******* decided to engage, any number of missiles do just land in areas that aren’t going to cause much damage to human life or infrastructure… they will choose to let them pass” Mr Hickey said.

Decisions like this could help ******* conserve interceptor ammunition for further attacks on its territory.

Saturation

Again, because there are genuine concerns about the scarcity of air-defence interceptors, there are fears Iran could attempt to overwhelm ******* in any large-scale bombardment.

“Tonight it seems that Iran launched fewer but more advanced missiles, but if this was to escalate into a conflict, this is something ******* is probably aware of,” Mr Hickey said.

“That might be a reason not to escalate this into a full conflict.”

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