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March inflation data lowered rate cut expectations. Why stocks might be OK

Pelican Press

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March inflation data lowered rate cut expectations. Why stocks might be OK

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. The March CPI came in hotter than expected, but the strategist said the
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is less troubling when taking a peek into the report’s most stubborn components. Varghese still leans toward equities, expecting as many as three rate cuts this year, though he anticipates the first cut might not come until July now. Some recent data shows that shelter costs, for example, have started to cool, while car insurance, which accounted for much of the monthly CPI gain, isn’t in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures report. “We think the disinflation story is still in play,” Varghese said. “And I would focus more on what Powell said. Q4 inflation was really low. Q1 has now been hotter than expected. So they didn’t take Q4 as a victory. I don’t think they’re taking Q1 as something to be really panicked about. And so, they’re just going to wait.” “It’s just a bumpy road. And we are in that camp, too,” Varghese added.

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