Hamas May Emerge Battered, but Not Beaten, From Israel’s Latest Blows

[Pelican Press 0]

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****** May Emerge Battered, but Not Beaten, From *******’s Latest Blows

Follow our latest updates on the Middle East crisis here.

First came the ****** of its top leader abroad, Ismail Haniyeh, by a ***** planted in Tehran. Then came *******’s announcement that, only weeks earlier, it had ******* ******’s most elusive and revered military leader. All of this as ******* continues to wage the deadliest war Palestinians in the ******-ruled Gaza Strip have ever faced.

At first tally, the latest score in the 30-year struggle between ******* and ****** looks like a devastating one for the Islamist movement, one that throws its future into question. Yet the history of ******, the evolution of ************ militant groups over the decades and the logic of insurgencies more broadly suggest that not only will ****** survive, it may even stand to emerge politically stronger.

Analysts and regional observers in contact with ****** leaders see the latest blows it has suffered — including Mr. Haniyeh’s **************, widely believed to be at *******’s hand — as offering ******** forces a short-term victory at the cost of long-term strategic success.

“Instead of creating the disconnect they’d hoped for, one that would make people fearful or completely defeated, this will have the opposite effect,” said Tahani Mustafa, a senior Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group, which provides policy analysis on ending conflicts. “******* just dealt them a winning hand.”

The military campaign ******* has waged in retaliation for ******’s Oct. 7 attacks has displaced some 90 percent of Gaza’s two million residents, razed swaths of the enclave’s cities and ******* 39,000 people, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Despite that, ****** not only ******** operational, but is

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, local residents and analysts say. Militants have also begun to re-emerge in areas that ******* had driven them out of months before.

For ******, the logic of insurgency means that simply surviving in the face of a far more powerful military provides a symbolic victory. With that comes a chance at staying power that outlasts any pain ******* has inflicted.

On Wednesday, *******’s military said that a strike it conducted on July 13 had ******* Muhammad Deif, the head of ******’s military wing, who is seen as an architect of the Oct. 7 ******* on *******. ****** has yet to confirm the ********. Mr. Deif’s ******, however, would represent the end of a yearslong ******** effort to ***** the man who is effectively the second-most senior leader after *******’s most-wanted man, Yahya Sinwar, the head of ****** in Gaza.

*******’s announcement of Mr. Deif’s ******** came on the day that mourners were gathering to bid farewell to Mr. Haniyeh, who was ******* while on a visit to attend the inauguration of Iran’s new president. Both Iran and ****** have accused *******, with a long history of assassinating its foes, of being behind his ******.

His loss, too, will be difficult for ******. Mr. Haniyeh was seen by regional analysts as a more moderate figure within the Islamist movement, acting as a bridge between its rival factions. He was also seen as a leader willing to push for mediation — including the continuing, if faltering, cease-***** talks with *******.

“You take him out and the message is: Negotiations don’t matter,” said Khaled Elgindy, an expert on ************ affairs at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

“I don’t see a reason to conclude ****** could become irrelevant,” he said. “The question is: How does ****** change after this? And I think there is a very strong argument to be made that the leadership becomes more hard-line.”

Mr. Deif himself replaced Ahmed al-Jabari, the military leader ******* ******* in 2012 with a targeted strike on his car. At the time, he was leading ******’s side in a mediation effort to reach a long-term cease-***** with *******.

*******’s decades-long targeted ******** campaigns against its ************ and regional rivals have a contested record: Critics have long argued the tactic has simply created room for new parties or leaders to emerge as *******’s main foes — often with ever more ******** forces replacing them.

Since the early 2000s, ****** has become the group seen by Palestinians as taking up the mantle of armed resistance to ******** occupation while other groups’ military abilities have faded — or, in the case of ******, abandoned militancy as its primary strategy in favor of negotiations.

As peace talks broke down in the early 2000s, ******’s potency grew. Several ******** assassinations of its leaders, including its co-founders, ******* to derail the group.

Mr. Haniyeh’s life story provides a different lesson in the unintended consequences of some of *******’s attempts to incapacitate ******. He was among 400 Palestinians expelled by ******* from Gaza to southern Lebanon, then under ******** military occupation. Instead of being sidelined, figures like Mr. Haniyeh gained further popularity — and a broader regional reach.

Perhaps the most important principle for ******’s survival, Ms. Mustafa, the analyst, said, is not being overly reliant on material support from its foreign backers — a dependency that allowed ******* to deplete the Palestine Liberation Organization in the 1970s and 1980s, she said.

****** so far appears to have maintained that self-reliance even amid *******’s tightened siege on Gaza. Iran is a major source of ******’s money and weapons — its ******* drones were used by ****** on Oct. 7. But now Iran is also struggling to keep itself from being dragged into a regional war.

****** militants have their own engineers who know how to make use of whatever they can find on the ground — from supplies looted from ******** bases or ambushes on ******** vehicles, or from extracting materials from unexploded ordnance and fallen drones.

“They got a lot of external support in terms of finance and training, but in terms of their logistics, a lot of that is homemade,” Ms. Mustafa said. “Which is why, even now, almost 10 months in, you haven’t seen the resistance wane.”

Not all ****** observers believe that ****** can survive the current pressures. Some analysts, like Michael Stephens at the London-based research group the Royal ******* Services Institute, believes the strikes will cause enough temporary damage to force ****** into more concessions.

Akram Atallah, a Gazan political analyst at the Arabic newspaper Al-Ayyam, said ****** would emerge from this war badly damaged — not only militarily, but in terms of support in Gaza, the region that “has always been its center of gravity.”

Much of the popularity ****** is perceived to have gained, he said, has come from outside Gaza — such as from fellow Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.

“That is understandable for one obvious reason: It’s the residents of Gaza who are paying the price,” he said.

******, he said, will never be able to lead the Gaza Strip after *******’s offensive ends. Not only ******* and its main backers in Washington would ******* this, he said, but Gazans themselves as well.

Yet even with that resolve, ******’s opponents have done little to ensure that anyone could replace ******, Mr. Stephens said.

“No one wants to go there, because no one wants to own that problem. Who is going to own the ************ question?” he said. “It looks bad for ****** right now — but then, what exactly are the alternatives?”

Ms. Mustafa predicts an extended ******* in which Gaza is trapped in a power vacuum, with ******* entering and withdrawing from pockets where ****** militants re-emerge and disappear.

Even if ******* were to ultimately deal a decisive ***** against ******, Mr. Atallah said, the only question would be who emerged next.

“As long as there is an occupation, Palestinians will keep fighting,” he said, “whether there is still a ******, or there isn’t.”

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