Rates likely on hold with Reserve Bank coy on next move

[Pelican Press 0]

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Rates likely on hold with Reserve Bank coy on next move

*********** borrowers should be spared another hike in loan repayments, with economists broadly in agreement the key rate will stay put.

The Reserve Bank of Australia board meets across two days this week and is widely expected to leave the official cash rate on hold at 4.35 per cent.

That’s after June quarter inflation data arrived soft enough to quash fears of another rate hike, which started building in response to a string of firm monthly price data.

Although the annual rate of headline inflation accelerated in June – rising to 3.8 per cent, up from 3.6 per cent – this was broadly in line with expectations.

Along with the all-important trimmed mean gauge moderating and coming in a little below expectations, conversation promptly shifted back to the likely timing for cuts.

Two-thirds of the 33 economists surveyed by Reuters expected no change in the key rate before the end of the year, with 10 forecasting at least one 25-basis-point cut in 2024.

One was predicting another hike.

All but one economist surveyed believed there would be no change in the cash rate on Tuesday.

The central bank would be unlikely to gesture towards cuts in its post-meeting press conference and statement, Commonwealth Bank economist Gareth Aird said.

The “neutral bias” – nothing ruled in nor out – would likely be maintained with the board aiming to keep its options open for now, he said.

Board members will also be digesting updated economic forecasts from RBA staff, as well as retail sales, labour force and inflation data.

Mr Aird expected “major surgery” on its forecast profile for headline inflation to reflect Commonwealth and state government energy rebates announced in their budgets.

RBA governor Michele Bullock will speak at Tuesday’s press conference and deliver a speech later in the week – opportunities to communicate the central bank’s thinking.

She is due on Thursday to deliver the annual Rotary Lecture in Armidale, the regional NSW town where she grew up.

During the week, the Melbourne Institute will also release its inflation gauge for July, offering a timely view of price pressures.

Job ad numbers are out from ANZ and Indeed on Tuesday, followed by selected cost-of-living indexes from the *********** Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday.

Shares have copped a recent battering after reaching record highs, with both the ASX and Wall Street drooping in Friday trade.

The local bourse’s benchmark S&P/ASX200 index fell 171.5 points, or 2.1 per cent, to 7,943.2 on Friday, while the All Ordinaries dropped 173.4 points, or 2.08 per cent, to 8,170.4.

In US markets, the Dow Jones finished Friday trade down 610.71 points, or 1.51 per cent, to 39,737.26.

The Nasdaq sunk further into the red, losing 417.98 points, or 2.43 per cent, to finish at 16,776.16. The S&P500 shed 100.12 points, or 1.84 per cent to close the week at 5,346.56.

The *********** dollar was buying 65.1 US cents on Sunday morning.

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