The latest on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four

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The latest on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four

SAVANNAH, Ga. (WSAV) — Over the past few days, we have been monitoring a tropical wave as it traveled through the main development region of the Atlantic. Dry air due to high levels of Saharan dust was the main limiting factor for development, but now this system is forecast to strengthen as it enters a more favorable environment.

As of the latest 5 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, this tropical wave has become better organized over eastern Cuba with more thunderstorm development around the center of circulation. The storm is now called Potential Tropical Cyclone Four and will head into the eastern Gulf of Mexico being steered by a strong area of high pressure known as the Bermuda High.

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Further strengthening into a Tropical storm is forecast to occur sometime on Saturday as the storm moves away from Cuban land interactions. It is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico where water temperatures are near 90°F and this will act as fuel for this system. The latest forecast track has this storm paralleling Florida’s west coast before making a turn to the northeast due to a break in between two ridges of high pressure.

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As of now, a landfall near Tampa, Florida is possible but the exact track and intensity are still unknown. What we do know is that tropical downpours are going to be a concern for much of Florida as the system impacts the area over the weekend. As the storm moves through the state of Florida late Sunday into early Monday it will weaken due to interactions with land before potentially reemerging into the Atlantic Ocean right off of the southeast coastline. The early portions of next week are when we have the potential to see more direct impacts in the Coastal Empire and Lowcountry.

As of now, Savannah and the rest of our region are included in the forecast cone of uncertainty but it is important to understand that his cone marks where the center of the storm could potentially track. This means that impacts can still be felt outside of that cone depending on where the center of circulation is. For us locally, the main impact we know of is the threat of heavy downpours. How much rain we get and where exactly it will fall will be determined by several factors, the speed of the storm, the size, the track, and the intensity.

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