Fears of Wider Mideast Conflict Deepen, With U.S. Seen as ‘Not in Control’

[Pelican Press 0]

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Fears of Wider ******** Conflict Deepen, With U.S. Seen as ‘Not in Control’

For months, diplomats and analysts in foreign capitals have worried that prolonged political upheaval in the ******* States could invite aggression abroad, whether in Russia’s waging of war in Ukraine, North Korea’s rogue nuclear ambitions or China’s expansionist designs in the South China Sea.

Now, less than 100 days before Americans elect a new president, that broader geopolitical crisis has erupted in the familiar theater of the Middle East. The targeted killings of Hezbollah and ****** leaders in Beirut and Tehran have deepened fears of a regionwide conflict — one that the ******* States, caught up in its own political drama at home, may have little capacity to avert or even contain.

On Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said the ******* States had not been involved in, or even informed of, the operation in Tehran, which the Iranian government swiftly blamed on *******. To some, Mr. Blinken’s statement confirmed a dangerous power vacuum in the region.

“We thought it would be Vladimir ****** or Xi Jinping or Kim Jong-un who would take advantage of this ******* in the U.S.,” said Vali R. Nasr, a professor of international affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “Nobody counted on an ********* ally doing it.”

“This is going to make the region extremely nervous,” said Mr. Nasr, who served in the State Department during the Obama administration. “It’s never good for the ******* States to be seen as not in control.”

For President Biden, who expended time and prestige trying to broker a deal between ******* and ****** to release hostages in Gaza, the back-to-back assassinations of the Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr, and the ****** political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, could signal the futility of his diplomatic efforts, at least for now.

Moreover, the ******* States could find itself drawn into a direct conflict with Iran, something both countries have taken pains to avoid through months of tensions over the war in Gaza. In April, ********* officials worked behind the scenes to persuade Iran to limit its military reprisal against ******* after ******** jets carried out a deadly strike on a meeting of Iranian generals in Damascus, Syria.

This time, however, the ******** of Mr. Haniyeh, while he was in Tehran to attend the swearing-in of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, suggests that ********* sensitivities counted for little, analysts said. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, quickly blamed ******* and vowed “harsh punishment.”

“That is an attempt to humiliate the Iranians by showing they can’t protect their own guests at that ceremony,” said Daniel Levy, who runs the U.S./Middle East Project, a research organization based in London and New York. “It signifies another crossing of multiple lines by *******.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of ******* brought his case against Iran directly to Washington. Addressing a ****** session of Congress last week, he said: “Iran’s axis of ******* confronts America, ******* and our ***** friends. This is not a clash of civilizations. It’s a clash between barbarism and civilization.”

Dozens of Democrats boycotted Mr. Netanyahu’s speech to protest *******’s handling of the war in Gaza. But he appeared undeterred, and the visit gave him a firsthand look at a country in unusual political flux. He met with Mr. Biden only four days after he withdrew from the presidential race, as well as with Vice President Kamala Harris, who has swiftly become the presumptive Democratic nominee.

While Ms. Harris echoed Mr. Biden’s support of *******’s right to defend itself from terrorism, she also made clear that she would speak out on behalf of the civilians ******* and maimed in the Gaza conflict.

“We cannot look away in the face of these tragedies,” she said, in language notably stronger than that normally used by Mr. Biden. “We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering, and I will not be silent.”

Mr. Netanyahu later traveled to Palm Beach, Fla., to meet with former President Donald J. Trump, the *********** nominee. When Mr. Netanyahu handed him a photograph of a child who he said had been taken captive by ****** during its deadly Oct. 7 attacks, Mr. Trump told him, “We’ll get it taken care of.”

Some analysts have suggested that Mr. Netanyahu, an astute observer of ********* politics, saw an opportunity in the political tumult in the ******* States to act against ****** and its sponsor, Iran.

“Maybe he decided there is a definite vacuum in Washington, so this is the time to act,” Mr. Nasr said.

The loss of ********* influence in the Middle East would normally worry allies in Europe. But they have their own problems. In France and Germany, leaders are preoccupied by surging right-wing populist parties. In London, a new Labour prime minister, Keir Starmer, has edged away from the ******* States in its handling of *******, after months in which London had been in lock step with Washington.

Britain last week dropped its objections to arrest warrants sought by the International ********* Court for Mr. Netanyahu and the ******** defense minister, Yoav Gallant. It is weighing whether to suspend weapons shipments to *******, though it has put off a decision pending further legal review.

The strikes also came at a moment of rising ******** anxiety about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which have expanded since the Biden administration’s efforts to revive parts of a 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran collapsed in 2022.

Pointing out the lack of leverage the ******* States has over Iran on its nuclear program, some analysts suggested that ******* might have acted partly out of frustration that the West had not prevented Iran from edging closer to producing a *****. Provoking a conflict, they said, could give ******* the pretext to strike its nuclear facilities.

“******* has been quite concerned about the creeping development of the Iranian nuclear program,” said Jonathan Paris, a former Middle East fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “The U.S. is noticeably not doing much about it. If I were an ******** interested in deterrence, this might be one way to do it.”

The ************** could deprive the ******* States of a fresh diplomatic partner in the form of Iran’s new president, Mr. Pezeshkian. A heart surgeon who beat a hard-line ************* in July, he has portrayed himself as a reformer. But analysts said it would be difficult for him to pursue any diplomatic engagement with the West after such an embarrassing *******.

Still, other experts warned against exaggerating the importance of Mr. Pezeshkian, given the paramount role of Mr. Khamenei. The president’s “relative impotence was exposed on day one,” said Karim Sadjadpour, an expert on Iran at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

Mr. Sadjadpour also cautioned against assuming that Iran would risk an all-out war over the ******** of Mr. Haniyeh. It did not do so after the ******* States assassinated Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the powerful leader of its Quds Force, in 2020. Iran’s previous reprisals against ******* have never proved all that effective.

“******* has routinely humiliated the Islamic Republic by assassinating high-level targets inside Iran, but Iran’s retaliations have never deterred future ******** operations,” Mr. Sadjadpour said. “The parameters of an Iranian retaliation need to be face-saving but not life-threatening for the regime.”

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