Strikes in Iran and Lebanon Raise Risk of Escalation, but All-Out War Is Not Inevitable

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Strikes in Iran and Lebanon Raise Risk of Escalation, but All-Out War Is Not Inevitable

“I don’t think necessarily that the Iranians’ strategic calculus has changed,” Mr. Krieg said.

“Iran will have to respond in some way,” he said. “But it’s not a turning point.”

Some analysts said the ******** of Mr. Haniyeh, ******’s top negotiator, made a cease-***** deal in Gaza less likely in the immediate future. Israelis hoped that the ******** of such an influential leader would eventually help break ******’s resolve, making the group more willing to compromise in the long term. But others said that the organization was unlikely to be seriously affected by Mr. Haniyeh’s ******.

Despite his title as ******’s political leader, Mr. Haniyeh is replaceable, said Joost Hiltermann, the Middle East and North ******* program director for the International Crisis Group.

“****** will survive,” he said. “They have plenty of other leaders.”

While escalation is more likely now that at any time since October, past experiences show that de-escalation is still possible. In January, ******** strikes ******* a senior ****** leader in Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut, leading to fears that Hezbollah would mount a particularly fierce response on ******’s behalf. Days later, Hezbollah instead chose what was construed as a largely symbolic response, ******* a barrage of rockets at an ******** army base that caused little damage. And after ******* ******* several Iranian commanders in Syria in April, Iran responded with one of the biggest barrages of cruise and ballistic missiles in military history. After a symbolic ******** counterstrike, the two sides then chose to step back from the brink.

But even if an escalation is averted, it is unclear what the two strikes will achieve for ******* strategically.

To some of *******’s critics, they were an attempt to set off a regional war. To dispel that idea, *******’s foreign minister, ******* Katz, said on Wednesday that a ******* war could still be avoided if both sides adhered to a ******* Nations resolution that was issued after the last major war between ******* and Hezbollah in 2006, but never enforced.

Resolution 1701 called for Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the ******** border, among other stipulations. “******* is not interested in an all-out war, but the only way to prevent it is the immediate implementation of Resolution 1701,” Mr. Katz said in a statement.

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