The Tehran assassination has changed the game: Analysis

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The Tehran ************** has changed the game: Analysis

The ************** of

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has the entire Middle East on an absolute ******’s edge.

When we wrapped up our ABC News coverage on Tuesday night,

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had just announced they had ******* a senior Hezbollah leader in Beirut, their targeted response to the Golan Heights rocket *******.

The question was when and how Hezbollah would respond, but the overriding sense was that both sides were likely to find a way not to escalate to all-out war.

That’s now been completely upended.

An ******* in Tehran, the heart of

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, ******* the political leader of ****** not long after he attended the inauguration of Iran’s new president at the invitation of the country’s supreme leader. Haniyeh was in their care. This is a huge deal.

******* hasn’t taken direct responsibility, but Iran’s supreme leader has said the ******* came from the “********* and ********** Zionist entity.”

“With this act, [*******] paved the way for a severe punishment, and we consider it our duty to avenge the blood of those who were martyred in the Islamic Republic of Iran,” said Ayatollah Khamenei.

But just what that response looks like and when it comes is anyone’s guess.

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PHOTO: Iran ****** (Vahid Salemi/AP)

It could be another missile or drone ******* from Iran like we saw a few months ago. It could be Iran hitting ******** targets abroad. We know security is being stepped up at ******** embassies worldwide. It could be both options, neither or something else entirely.

Does the Iranian response preclude a response from Hezbollah? Their leadership had promised to target Tel Aviv if Beirut was hit. Well, a Beirut suburb got hit. A salvo from Iran could be joined by a salvo from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah does as Tehran instructs.

For its part, ****** has also vowed to respond, saying the ******* won’t go unanswered and will only serve to prolong the conflict.

******* Defense Forces has stepped up its security posture throughout the country, closing airspace within 50 miles of the border.

It’s worth noting that both the Beirut and Tehran attacks by ******* were targeted — limited civilian casualties and what the IDF says were legitimate military targets.

There is uniform opinion from most ******** analysts, including those ABC News has spoken to personally, that Iran isn’t going to go to war over the ******** of a ****** leader. They didn’t after

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was ******* after all. After all, they didn’t after the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard’s elite Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, was ******* in a U.S. strike and Soleimani was far more important to Iran than Haniyeh.

But this was a strike right in their backyard at a time when they are trying to project strength throughout the region. It’s not only embarrassing, it’s also a security lapse that has caught them flat-footed.

Accordingly, their response could be severe, even if not intended to cause all-out war. But just because you mean for a response to be targeted and limited doesn’t mean something won’t go wrong or that the other side will see it that way.

So continues this extremely dangerous back-and-forth game between ******* and its enemies. It’s been kept in check so far, but few are sleeping easy in Tel Aviv right now.

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#Tehran #************** #changed #game #Analysis

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