Analysis-Battered Hamas confounds Israel’s bid to declare victory

[Pelican Press 0]

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Analysis-Battered ****** confounds *******’s bid to declare victory

By Nidal al-Mughrabi and Maayan Lubell

CAIRO/JERUSALEM (Reuters) – Senior figures in *******’s government have said it is closing in on its war aims of defeating ****** militarily and the return of hostages seized on Oct. 7. But ******’ survival as a guerrilla force and its sway in Gaza may overshadow any deal.

After nine months of pummelling by one of the most powerful militaries in the Middle East, ****** is much weakened from the force that carried out the cross-border ******* on ******* on Oct. 7.

Early in the war, ****** *********** videos showed well-drilled fighters in body armour and battle fatigues, their torsos wrapped with ammunition belts. Now, small groups of insurgents in T-shirts and trainers stage hit-and-run attacks in Gaza’s bombed-out streets, the videos show.

Reuters spoke with three sources with knowledge of ****** tactics, two former ****** militants, three ************ officials, two ******** military sources and an ******** defence official to shed light on the group’s losses and its strategy.

Two ******** and two ************ sources told Reuters that a communications network built by ****** before the war has been heavily damaged. That has left its command fragmented and reliant on messages delivered in person to avoid ******** surveillance, the ************ sources said.

One ************ source with knowledge of ****** military tactics said personnel losses and the destruction of the communications network meant centralised decision-making had collapsed. Much of the vast tunnel network beneath Gaza has also been destroyed or compromised, the ******** military has said.

But the guerrilla tactics adopted by ****** cells in recent weeks are simply aimed at ensuring the group survives, ties down ******** forces and inflicts losses, according to another ************ source with knowledge of ****** military tactics.

******** Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, speaking to soldiers in the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, said on Tuesday that ******* was close to defeating ****** militarily, according to a statement from his office.

“We’re eliminating ****** as a military organisation,” Gallant told the troops. “We’re creating a situation that will allow us to make a deal to free our hostages.”

****** seized around 250 hostages during the Oct. 7 ******* and ******* 1,200 people, according to ******** tallies. ****** and other militants are still holding 115 hostages, around a third of whom have been declared ***** in absentia by ******** authorities.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, addressing the U.S. Congress on Wednesday during a trip to Washington, pledged the hostages would be released soon and ***** out a post-war vision of a “demilitarized and deradicalised Gaza” led by Palestinians who do not seek to ******** *******.

****** dismissed Netanyahu’s comments as “pure *****” and accused the ******** leader of thwarting negotiations to end the war and reach a ceasefire deal to release the hostages – outlined by U.S. President Joe Biden in May and mediated by Egypt and Qatar.

Netanyahu, who will meet with Biden on Thursday, has said that victory will only be achieved when the military and governing capabilities of ****** are eliminated and Gaza poses no further threat to *******.

******’ founding charter in 1987 called for the destruction of ******* and it subsequently directed ******** bombings in ******** cities and, with Iran’s help, built an arsenal of rockets that it has launched into ******* in frequent conflicts.

‘VERY FAR’ FROM DESTROYING ******

****** has insisted that, despite losses, its command structure ******** in place, even if weakened.

Senior ****** official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters that *******’s accounts exaggerate the extent of its losses: “Facts on the ground are completely different,” he said.

In a statement on July 16 to mark nine months of that war, *******’s military said that it has ******* or apprehended at least 14,000 ****** fighters out of the estimated 30,000 to 40,000 fighters that the group had at the start of the conflict.

By comparison, ******* says just 326 of its soldiers have been ******* in Gaza since the start of the ground offensive – just above the roughly 300 ******* in a single day during ******’ Oct. 7 *******.

Crucially, the IDF has also said it had eliminated half of the leadership of ******’ military wing, the Al-Qassam brigades, and it was pursuing ******’ top leaders as part of its aim of dismantling the group’s capabilities.

An ******** airstrike on July 13 in a humanitarian area in southern Gaza targetted ******’ military chief Mohammed Deif, who ******* says masterminded the Oct. 7 *******. The Gaza health ministry said at least 90 Palestinians were ******* in the strike.

The ******** military’s chief spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, said on July 19 there were increasing signs Deif was ******* alongside another senior ****** commander Rafa Salame, who ******** officials believe was sitting next to him at the time and was also *******.

************ sources have confirmed the deaths of several leading ****** military commanders. They include Ayman Nofal, and Ahmed Al-Ghandour, both members of the Higher Military Council, the top decision-making body of ******’ armed wing. Saleh Al-Arouri, the deputy chief of ******, was also ******* in Lebanon.

Yet ****** fighters have drawn ******** forces back into battle in the same areas of Gaza again and again, such as this week’s fighting in Khan Younis, preventing the declaration of victory Netanyahu says he is determined to secure.

Michael Milshtein, a former ******** military intelligence officer who leads ************ studies at Tel Aviv-based Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and ******** Studies, said ******* would need more boots on the ground across more areas of Gaza to achieve its aim of eliminating ******.

“We are very far from the goal of destroying ******’ government and military capacities. We are really not close to that,” Milshtein said. He noted, however, that a purely military victory would in any case ignore the group’s social, political and economic influence.

“We’re continuing to treat an ****** who is multi-dimensional in its behaviour as a military threat only.”

The IDF did not immediately respond to a request for comment. ******* called up around 300,000 reservists to mount its ******** on Gaza, its largest mobilisation in decades. It began releasing them around four months later.

MOP-UP OPERATIONS

*******’s military response to Oct. 7 has turned Gaza into a chaotic wasteland. More than 39,000 people have been *******, according to ************ figures.

******’ armed wing began the war with 24 battalions. An ******** military source told Reuters on July 11 that four remaining battalions in Gaza’s southern Rafah area, where ******* has focused its most recent offensive, are “close to being dismantled.”

To achieve the government’s war aims, the ******* Defence Forces planned a three-tier offensive encompassing an initial aerial campaign, followed by a ground offensive and a final phase of mopping up operations.

Most of Gaza has been in phase 3 for around six months. Once the ******** forces have stamped out ******’ remaining battalions in Rafah, then all of Gaza will essentially be in phase 3, according to ******** officials.

******’ missile and rocket arsenal, once put at 15,000 to 30,000 has also been heavily depleted. *******’s military estimates 13,000 at least have been fired. It has also seized caches of projectiles as it has swept almost every city in Gaza.

Kobi Michael, of Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said ****** was no longer an institutionalised army divided into conventional military units, with weapons manufacturing, training, intelligence and air, naval and cyber forces.

“We need to carry on until ****** has no ability to rebuild,” Michael said, suggesting the ******** military would need to have access to Gaza even after the war to carry out operations against any remaining militant cells.

“The groundwork is being ***** now for the IDF to operate in a similar way to the way it does in the West Bank. We are not there yet,” he said.

But one source close to ****** said the group has been preparing for years for a scenario where it would need to shift to guerrilla-style tactics to survive a conflict with *******.

Key operations – including a foundry to make ****** and other weapons – were still operational, the source said. New recruits were also constantly joining ******’ military wing, while the switch to guerrilla tactics had allowed the group to contain its losses, according to another source familiar with ******’ tactics.

The network of tunnels, even after sections have been destroyed or compromised by ******** forces, continue to hamper *******’s goal of eliminating ******, experts and two sources close to ****** says.

“They show up from one shaft, ******** a tank, or prepare an ambush for another before they disappear until they reappear at another shaft,” said a former ****** militant familiar with the group’s operations.

Some new tunnels, sources close to the group say, are being dug by hand. Reuters was unable to verify this independently.

An ******** military official on Monday told Reuters that while a lot of ****** military infrastructure, including tunnels, has been destroyed there was still much more to be done.

(Writing by ********** Lowe and Michael Georgy; Editing by Daniel Flynn)

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