Netanyahu faces delicate balancing act in US after Biden exit

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Netanyahu faces delicate balancing act in US after Biden exit

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US President Joe Biden (right) flew to ******* just days after the 7 October ****** *******

******** Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the US this week under pressure to end the Gaza war, from both Israelis and the US administration. How might the political turbulence in Washington shape the trip and future relations?

Mr Netanyahu is set to meet Joe Biden – if the president has recovered from Covid-19 – and address a ****** session of Congress, the only foreign leader to do so for a fourth time.

The trip offers him a platform for a reset with Washington after months of tensions over his hardline approach to the war, and an opportunity to try and convince Israelis that he hasn’t undermined relations with their most important ally.

But it is overshadowed by President Biden’s decision not to seek re-election, highlighting political uncertainties about *******’s next partner in the White House and possibly eclipsing some of the attention on Mr Netanyahu’s visit.

The prime minister got a lot of unwelcome attention in ******* until the moment he boarded the plane.

A drumbeat of protests demanded that he stay home and focus on a ceasefire deal with ****** to free ******** hostages.

“Until he has signed the deal that’s on the table, I do not see how he picks up and flies across the Atlantic to address the ********* political chaos,” said Lee Siegal, one of the family members who has come out to demonstrate. His 65-year-old brother Keith is a captive in Gaza.

The trip is a political move, he added, unless Mr Netanyahu stops being a “hurdle” and signs the ceasefire agreement.

Mr Siegel reflected a widespread view that Mr Netanyahu is slow-rolling the process for his own political reasons, roiling his negotiators when he recently threw new conditions into talks that seemed to be making progress.

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Lee Siegal’s brother, Keith, is one of the hostages still believed to be in Gaza

The prime minister has been accused of bowing to pressure from two far-right cabinet ministers who’ve threatened to bring down his government if he makes concessions to ******.

These perceptions have added to frustrations in the White House, which announced the latest formula for talks and had been expressing optimism an agreement could be achieved.

Mr Biden ******** one of the most pro-******* presidents to sit in the Oval Office, a self-declared Zionist who’s been lauded by Israelis for his support and empathy, cemented by his flight to ******* just days after the ****** attacks on 7 October.

But since then, he’s grown alarmed at the cost of Mr Netanyahu’s demand for a “total victory” against ****** in Gaza.

The administration is frustrated with the ******** prime minister for rejecting a post war solution that involves pursuing a ************ state.

It’s ****** with him for resisting appeals to do more to protect ************ civilians and increase the flow of aid to them. It’s facing a domestic backlash over the mounting ****** toll in Gaza. And it’s worried that the conflict is spreading to the region.

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Protesters back home want Mr Netanyahu to focus on getting a ceasefire deal with ****** to release the ******** hostages

As Joe Biden’s presidency weakened in the swirl of controversy over his abilities, analysts said there might be less room for him to keep up the pressure on the ******** prime minister.

But Mr Biden’s decision to drop out of the race could actually have strengthened his hand, says Ehud Barak, a former ******** prime minister and a critic of Mr Netanyahu.

“He is not a lame duck in regard to foreign policy, in a way he’s more independent (because) he doesn’t have to take into account any impact on the voters,” Mr Barak told the BBC.

“With regard to ******* probably he feels more of a free hand to do what really needs to be done.”

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Former ******** PM Ehud Barak says inviting Mr Netanyahu back to Congress to speak was “a mistake”

Mr Barak believes it was a mistake for Congress to invite Mr Netanyahu to speak, saying that many Israelis blame him for policy failures that allowed the ****** ******* to happen, and three out of four want him to resign.

“The man does not represent *******,” he said. “He lost the trust of Israelis…And it kind of sends a wrong signal to Israelis, probably a wrong signal to Netanyahu himself, when the ********* Congress invites him to appear as if he is saving us.”

Whatever politics he may be playing, Mr Netanyahu insists military pressure must continue because it has significantly weakened ****** after a series of strikes against the military leadership.

In comments before departing *******, he suggested that would be the tone of his meeting with President Biden.

“It will also be an opportunity to discuss with him how to advance in the months ahead the goals that are important for both our countries,” he said, “achieving the release of all our hostages, defeating ******, confronting the ******* axis of Iran and its proxies and ensuring that all *******’s citizens return safely to their homes in the north and in the south.”

He’s expected to bring the same message to congress, “seeking to anchor the bipartisan support that is so important to *******”.

The reality is that Mr Netanyahu’s polices have fractured that bipartisan support. The Republicans are rallying around him, but criticism from Democrats has grown.

The Democratic Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer caused a small earthquake in Washington recently when he stood up in the chambers and said Mr Netanyahu was one of the obstacles standing in the way of a lasting peace with Palestinians.

“I hope the prime minister understands the anxiety of many members in congress and addresses them,” the former US ambassador to *******, Thomas Nides, told the BBC at the weekend. He’d been addressing one of the many rallies demanding a ******** release.

That includes “on humanitarian issues and to articulate that this ****** isn’t with the ************ people, it’s with ******.”

It’s a message that Kamala Harris would repeat if she were to become the Democratic nominee. There’d be no change in US policy: a commitment to *******’s security while pushing for an end to the Gaza conflict and a plan for the Day After embedded in a regional peace with ***** states.

But there might be a difference in tone.

Ms Harris does not share Mr Biden’s long history with and emotional ties to *******. She’s from a different generation and “could more closely align with the sentiments of younger elements of the Democratic party,” says Mick Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defence for the Middle East.

“That’s a stance more likely to include restrictions on weapons, on munitions from the ******* States for use in Gaza,” he said.

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Experts say there’s unlikely to be change in US policy towards ******* under a possible Kamala Harris presidency, but there might be a change in tone

Mr Netanyahu could very well use the visit to steer the conversation from the controversy over Gaza to the threat from Iran, a topic with which he’s far more comfortable, especially after the recent escalation with Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

But his main audience will be domestic, says Tal Shalev, the diplomatic correspondent at *******’s Walla News.

He wants to revive his image as “Mr America,” she says, the man who can best present ******* to the US, and to restore his image which was shattered by the October 7 attacks.

“When he goes to the US and speaks in front of Congress and [has] a meeting in the White House, for his electoral base, it’s the old Bibi is back again,” she says, referring to the prime minister by his nickname. “This is not the ******* Bibi who was responsible for the seventh of October. This is the old Bibi who goes to the Congress and gets the standing ovations.”

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Many believe Mr Netanyahu (right) is playing for time – hoping Donald Trump will win the US presidential election and ease some of the pressure on him

It also gives him an opportunity to pursue connections with the former President Donald Trump at a time of great political flux in Washington.

“Netanyahu wants President Trump to win,” she says, “And he wants to make sure that he and President Trump are on good terms before the election.”

There is a widespread view that Mr. Netanyahu is playing for time, hoping for a Trump win that might ease some of the pressure he’s been facing from the Biden administration.

“There is a near-universal perception that Netanyahu is eager for a Trump victory, under the assumption that he will then be able to do whatever he wants,” writes Michael Koplow of *******’s Policy Forum.

“No Biden pressuring him on a ceasefire or on West Bank settlements and settler *********… There are many reasons to doubt this reading of the landscape under a Trump restoration, but Netanyahu likely subscribes to it.”

The question is whether that pressure from Biden will ease as he steps away from the presidential race, or whether he will in fact use his remaining months in office to focus on achieving an end to the Gaza war.

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