Cease-Fire Negotiations Are Being Watched Closely by Hezbollah Leaders in Lebanon

[Pelican Press 0]

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Cease-***** Negotiations Are Being Watched Closely by Hezbollah Leaders in Lebanon

When intelligence chiefs of the ******* States, ******* and Egypt went to Qatar on Wednesday for talks aimed at brokering a cease-***** in Gaza, there was more on the line than *******’s war against ******. The talks are being watched closely by Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon, and the question of whether a second full-blown war will erupt in *******’s north may also hang in the balance.

Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, made it clear on Wednesday that “the only way” to stop the cross-border hostilities between his group and ******* was to negotiate an end to the fighting in Gaza. Hezbollah and ****** are both allied with Iran in what they call “the axis of resistance,” a coalition that opposes *******’s right to exist.

“****** is negotiating on its own behalf and on behalf of the entire resistance axis, and what ****** accepts, we accept,” Mr. Nasrallah said in a televised speech.

******** forces and Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon, who are backed by Iran, have traded ***** since the war in Gaza began after ****** led an ******* on ******* on Oct. 7. About 150,000 people in northern ******* and southern Lebanon have fled their homes because of the fighting, and world leaders are worried that continued hostilities could quickly spiral into a full-fledged war that further destabilizes the already fraught region.

Mr. Nasrallah, in his speech, referred to these concerns, noting that “many delegations” from the international community have visited Lebanon to discuss defusing tensions. “We repeated the same words: If you want to stop the northern front, stop the ***** in Gaza,” he said.

But the cease-***** talks have been halting, and the fighting between ******* and Hezbollah — cross-border attacks with drones, rockets and airstrikes — has escalated in recent weeks, heightening fears that a wider war may be imminent.

On Tuesday, two Israelis — Noa and Nir Baranes, a married couple from Kibbutz Ortal in the northern Golan Heights — were ******* in a Hezbollah strike on their car that the Lebanese armed group said had targeted an ******** military base in response to an earlier ******** “**************” of a Hezbollah figure in Syria. The civilian deaths put additional pressure on the ******** government to address tensions with Hezbollah, even as the ******** military keeps returning to parts of Gaza it had previously considered pacified to suppress a resurgence of ****** fighters.

The ******** military said on Wednesday that its air force struck a “military site” in southern Lebanon after soldiers identified several Hezbollah operatives entering it, and that it also had targeted other Hezbollah sites nearby. ******** government officials and military leaders have in recent weeks toured northern ******* and met with troops stationed there who were preparing for a potential escalation.

******* has invaded Lebanon three times in the last 50 years, most recently in 2006, when the sides fought a monthlong war that ******* more than 1,000 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and more than 150 in *******, mostly soldiers.

Yoav Gallant, *******’s defense minister, has said that a diplomatic solution to the conflict with Hezbollah is preferable. But he has also emphasized, including in talks with his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd J. Austin III, in Washington late last month, that ******* is “determined to establish security” in the north and change “the reality on the ground.”

******** security experts are concerned that a war against Hezbollah will be more intense — and more likely to draw in other players — than the ****** against ******.

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from Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies warned that “Hezbollah has the military capabilities to conduct an exceedingly protracted war, probably lasting many months, and cause severe damage to *******” and that it could turn into “a multi-front war against Iran and its other proxies.”

The report, led by the retired ******** Brig. Gen. Meir Elran, a senior researcher at the institute, said “there is a growing sense of futility regarding the future of the northern border.” It also noted that “public discourse has been heavily focused on the possibility of a comprehensive war with Hezbollah.”

Comprehensive war is precisely what France, the ******* States and others have been hoping to prevent with diplomatic visits to the region. Whether efforts at de-escalating the conflict between ******* and Hezbollah can succeed may well depend on how the cease-***** talks in Qatar progress.

On Wednesday, the C.I.A. director, Mossad chief and Egyptian intelligence head met in Qatar with the Qatari prime minister in an effort to find a peace formula both ******* and ****** can agree on. (Egypt and Qatar have been relaying proposals to ****** leaders.)

So far, however, ******* and ****** disagree over a fundamental question: whether the cease-***** will be permanent or just a temporary pause to allow for an exchange of hostages taken from ******* for ************ prisoners.

The talks have been “progressing positively,” said Majed al-Ansari, the spokesman for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, before the latest gathering. But, he added, “We are by no means out of the woods.”

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