Israel-Hezbollah war risk rises. Can Iron Dome be overrun?

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*******-Hezbollah war risk rises. Can Iron Dome be overrun?

*******’s Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from the Gaza Strip, as seen from Ashkelon, in southern *******, October 20, 2023.

Amir Cohen | Reuters

On Thursday morning, Hezbollah said it

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— one of its largest attacks yet — following the ******** ************** of one of the group’s senior commanders, further ramping up fears over a potential full-blown war between the two heavily armed adversaries.

The Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, which is designated as a ********** organization by the U.S. and U.K., said it fired at 10 ******** military sites using a “squadron of drones.” *******’s military said that “numerous projectiles and suspicious aerial targets” breached its territory, many of which were intercepted, and that there were no casualties.

Hezbollah has launched

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into ******* in the nearly nine months since the latter began its war against ************ militant group ****** in Gaza on Oct. 7. The rockets fired from Lebanon have ******* 18 ******** soldiers and 10 civilians, ******* says, while ******** shelling has ******* some 300 Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon and around 80 civilians, according to a

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The relatively low number of ******** casualties is thanks to the country’s Iron Dome, a mobile all-weather defense system designed to protect ******** territory by launching guided missiles to intercept incoming rockets and other short-range threats in mid-air. It has a success rate of around 90%, according to the ******* Defense Forces. 

The system, which became fully operational in March 2011 and has been upgraded several times since, has “successfully prevented countless rockets from hitting ******** communities,” *******’s Defense Ministry says. Originally produced in *******, the Iron Dome was developed by state-owned Rafael Advanced Defense Systems with U.S. backing — and Washington

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for it today.

An Iron Dome launcher fires an interceptor missile as rockets are fired from Gaza, in Ashkelon, ******* May 10, 2023.

Amir Cohen | Reuters

The Iron Dome also intercepts around 90% of the near-daily rocket attacks from ****** and other militant groups in Gaza, the IDF claims. *******’s war in Gaza has ******* more than 37,000 people in the besieged strip, according to ************ health authorities, in a ******* offensive triggered by ******’ ******* ******* on Oct. 7 that ******* roughly 1,200 people in ******* and took an additional 253 ********, 116 of whom have been freed. 

But as ******* faces the prospect of a two-front war — with ****** to its south and Hezbollah to its north — and with the reality that Hezbollah has an enormous arsenal of missiles and is estimated to have 10 times the military capability of ******, the question is: can the Iron Dome be overrun? 

‘Payloads that ****** could not dream of’

An all-out war between ******* and Hezbollah would be devastating for both sides. Already, at least

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have been evacuated from their homes and are internally displaced because of the regular cross-border *****. 

Retired ******* Defense Forces Col. Miri Eisin, who directs the International Institute for Counterterrorism in *******, said the Iron Dome would not be overrun in the sense of failing to work altogether; rather, its interception success rate will likely fall amid large-scale missile attacks, meaning more damage to ******** infrastructure and more casualties. 

“Our capabilities to intercept are very high. But the percentage will go down and that means that they will be able to hit and do damage in the heart of *******,” Eisin said, adding that could include vital infrastructure like power plants and the country’s Tel Aviv international airport.

Hezbollah “has payloads that ****** could not dream of,” she said. “I would say that there’s an expectation of hundreds of *******, of thousands of casualties, and of a very challenging time ******* at the local level.” 

The Lebanese Shiite organization, which was born in 1982 during *******’s occupation of southern Lebanon with funding from Iran, is now considered one of the most heavily armed non-state groups in the world.

“Most estimates credibly put Hizbullah’s missile and rocket stockpile at 150,000,” Victor Tricaud, a senior analyst at consulting firm Control Risks, told CNBC. ******’ rockets and missiles, by comparison, are estimated to number in the tens of thousands.

More significantly, Tricaud said, Hezbollah has far more advanced weapons systems than ******, including Iranian-supplied guided Fateh missiles as well as drones. 

“Such munitions would stand significantly greater chances to evade *******’s air defense systems … and would be likely to inflict significant damage to critical economic infrastructure across *******,” he said.

A full-blown war would also be highly destructive for Lebanon, which is in the midst of an economic and political crisis and whose infrastructure is wholly unprepared for a new war. A major ******** incursion and the damage it would bring, particularly to the Hezbollah stronghold of southern Lebanon, could threaten the group’s standing and support there.

‘A ***** of a lot more damage’

******* and Hezbollah went to war in 2006, in a 34-day conflict that was claimed as a victory by Hezbollah and seen as a strategic ******** in *******. 

A report by *******’s Reichman University titled “

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” outlined a scenario in which Hezbollah would ***** 2,500 to 3,000 missiles and rockets a day for several weeks targeting ******** military and civilian sites. For reference, Hezbollah fired an estimated 4,000 rockets at ******* over the course of the entire 2006 war.

Pro-Iranian Hezbollah militants chant slogans as they walk in the beginning of the ******** procession of the party top commander Wissam tawil in the southern Lebanese village of Khirbit Selem.

Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

According to Phillip Smyth, an expert on Iranian proxies and former senior fellow at the Washington Institute, Hezbollah’s rates of ***** and number of rockets launched are already “far outpacing” what was seen during the 2006 war.

Hezbollah “has demonstrated a domestic production capacity for short-range, more inaccurate rockets that could be used to overwhelm the Iron Dome,” he said. Those, combined with the group’s newer higher accuracy missiles and growing supply of ******** drones, “could cause a much more dangerous issue for the Israelis than in 2006,” he said.

“Increased accuracy for these weapons systems is a big issue,” Smyth warned. “I’m of the belief that Iron Dome can handle many of the intermediate-range missiles. These are likely fewer in number, but combined with the accuracy shown with some UAV attacks, there could be a ***** of a lot more damage.”

— CNBC’s Sam Meredith contributed to this report.

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*******,Government and politics,Foreign policy,Breaking News: Politics,Politics,Terrorism,Middle East,Lebanon,Hezbollah,******* Defense Forces,business news
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