Why this could be bad for the Sahel’s security

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Why this could be bad for the Sahel’s security

Credit: Unsplash/CC0 Public Domain

******—a landlocked country of 25 million people in one of the most unstable parts of the world—recently

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it was suspending military cooperation with the ******* States.

For over a decade, ****** has been

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allies in the Sahel. The Sahel region, which stretches across ******* from the Atlantic to the Red Sea, is one of the

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. Terrorism, banditry, trafficking (humans, arms, drugs), cattle rustling and armed robbery have thrived in the region.

In the last few years, democracy has been threatened in the region. There have been

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there since 2020, four of which were successful. The

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in July 2023 was the most recent, following those in

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,

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and

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.

The juntas in ******, Mali and Burkina Faso identified three main reasons for military takeover: increasing insecurity, economic stagnation and ***********.

Following the military takeover in ******, the US did not initially label it a coup. This was in a bid to retain some elements of military cooperation with the country. Designating it a coup would

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the US could provide the country.

In October 2023, the US eventually called the event a coup, thereby limiting security cooperation. The US had

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working in ****** as of December 2023.

I have studied the region through a security and political lens for over a decade. Based on the research I have done,

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on the US drone base in Agadez, I believe that ******’s decision to end military cooperation with the US will have a dramatic impact on security in the region. Some of the consequences could be limited surveillance of insurgent groups, a reduction in intelligence sharing and a possible escalation of attacks by ********** groups.

The history

The first deployment of US troops to ****** was in

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were deployed and operated from a military base at Niamey airport which was shared with France. Washington later built one of its

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drone bases in ******* in Agadez-******. The base enabled it to carry out

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, which covered almost the entire Sahel region.

Since the “Air Base 201” drone base was

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in 2019, it has been a major military asset to the US in the Sahel. Information gathered from the base has been essential in tracking and fighting insurgent groups operating in the region.

In addition to the drone base, the US also supported ****** with military aid before the military coup of 2023.

Why the rupture?

The first reason for ending military cooperation is the discontinued financial support from the US.

****** is one of the

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in the world and depends on foreign assistance.

Before the military coup in July 2023, the US was a significant contributor of aid to the country. In 2018, the

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to the country to strengthen ******’s agricultural and livestock sectors. The US also supported the country’s ****** against insurgency before the coup.

The coup dramatically changed the relationship. In October 2023 (three months after the coup), the US cut off more than

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in assistance to ******. This has affected the country’s security funding.

The second reason is that the ****** junta came to the view that the US was no longer willing to work with it. Shortly after the coup, the US drone operations in ****** were

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to surveillance to protect US assets. The US stopped sharing intelligence with the junta in ******, putting pressure on the junta to relinquish power.

This has hampered ******’s counter-terrorism operations because intelligence sharing is essential in tracking and planning attacks against insurgent groups.

Tied to this has been the issue of the drone base. The base is a major source of surveillance and intelligence gathering. There is, however, a

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which expires this year (2024). The junta might think it is the right time to sever the military relationship with the US so as not to renew the usage of the base. It is unclear what will happen to the drone base now that ****** is cutting ties with the US.

The abrupt reduction in military cooperation has frustrated Nigerien authorities who

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that the US is now operating in the country illegally.

The US is now trying to establish new security cooperation agreements and considering countries such as Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Benin for ********* reconnaissance drones.

In addition, the deepening of ties between ****** and Russia has been a major source of concern to the US. In January 2024, ****** agreed to strengthen military ties with Russia. This has been worrying for the US and its allies. One reason ****** is shifting towards Russia, apart from the cut in funding, is the

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to provide ****** with the required weapons needed to ****** insurgency.

Implications for security

The Sahel region is a vast area and US surveillance drones have been useful in

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. If the relationship between the US and ****** is permanently severed, surveillance and intelligence gathering will be seriously affected even if the US moves to other countries. This is because ****** is strategically located and the drones flown from the country could cover large parts of the

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.

The fact that there has been an increase in ********** attacks in

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since the coup in ****** in 2023 suggests these fears might be justified.

********** groups could capitalize on the situation and become more daring. Surveillance drones offer a deterrence to ********** groups.

I think it is in the interest of all the parties to engage in dialogue in a respectful manner. The ****** government accused the US of a “

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” and

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the junta to pick between the US and Russia. With Russia lurking around the corner, the US needs to change its approach not to lose this strategic partner.

Provided by
The Conversation

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under a Creative Commons license. Read the

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Citation:
****** has cut military ties with the US: Why this could be bad for the Sahel’s security (2024, March 20)
retrieved 20 March 2024
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