Shadow of war with Israel looms over anxious Lebanese

[Pelican Press 0]

Shadow of war with ******* looms over anxious Lebanese

2 hours ago

By Hugo Bachega, BBC Middle East correspondent

Reuters

Fighting between Hezbollah and ******* has intensified in recent weeks

Two weeks ago, Hassan Nasrallah, the influential and long-time Hezbollah secretary-general, gave a televised speech from an undisclosed location in Lebanon to commemorate Taleb Abdallah, the group’s most senior official to have been ******* in an ******** strike in the current *********.

Mr Nasrallah, who spoke for about an hour, repeated that the Iranian-backed Lebanese militia and political party was not seeking an all-out war with ******* but, if there was one, they would ****** “without constraints or rules”.

He also said Hezbollah had deployed “only a fraction” of its arsenal, and warned “the ******” to “anticipate our presence on land, sea and in the air”. Surprisingly, he even threatened Cyprus, an EU member, if it allowed its territory to be used by ******* to launch attacks on the group.

Supporters, gathered in screenings organised by Hezbollah, interrupted him several times with raucous applause, chanting “Labbaika ya Nasrallah”, meaning “We’re at your service, Nasrallah”.

Not only the rhetoric appeared to be escalating. Days earlier, Hezbollah had responded to the ******** on 12 June of Abdallah, also known as Abu Taleb, with a barrage of rockets targeting northern *******. More than 200 were fired in a single day, according to the ******** military, causing limited damage.

It was the most intense ******* since the start of hostilities in October, renewing fears that the fighting could become, deliberately or by accident, a wider conflict.

EPA

Hassan Nasrallah warned Hezbollah would ****** “without rules” in a war with *******

For months, the question of whether Lebanon will be dragged into another war has dominated life in this country. It is what people often describe as “the situation”, a constant backdrop casting a shadow across the whole place.

But the Lebanese have carried on, an attitude that was perfectly captured in a picture of unfazed sunbathers in Tyre last month as plumes of smoke billowed out in the distance after an ******** strike.

Tensions, already fraught, ratcheted up further after Mr Nasrallah’s speech. As I watched him on TV, I observed through the window a man who was putting up pink-and-blue posters on walls in Ashrafieh, a trendy area in east Beirut, announcing a party.

“If we shut down our lives… the country will stop. We have to keep going,” the organiser, 35-year-old Raymonda Chamoun, told me days later. “What can we do? We’ll think about it when it happens.”

“I have a grab bag [in my flat]. It’s been next to my door, with essentials. Water, first aid, power bank. My parents taught me that a long time ago, because they were born and raised during the [Lebanese civil] war.”

Hezbollah’s strikes started on 8 October, the day after the deadly ****** ******* on *******. The group has said the campaign, in support for Palestinians amid *******’s war against ******, will stop only when there is a ceasefire in Gaza. The US has led efforts for a diplomatic solution to the tensions, and both Hezbollah and ******* have indicated being interested in avoiding a major conflict. Miscalculation, however, is a real risk.

Most of the ********* has remained contained to areas along the border, although ******** strikes have increasingly hit targets deeper into Lebanon. Hezbollah attacks have also reached far into *******. So far, more than 400 people have been reported ******* in Lebanon, the vast majority Hezbollah fighters, and 25 in *******, mostly soldiers.

In Lebanon’s south, a Hezbollah stronghold, an estimated 90,000 residents have fled, according to the ******* Nations. Villages are empty with houses and other buildings destroyed. Agricultural fields have been burned by white phosphorus dropped by *******, possibly an attempt to create a buffer zone and limit the group’s presence there.

Kameli Hammaid’s house in Meiss El Jabal, across the frontier from the ******** town of Kiryat Shmona, had been built by her grandparents, with olive trees in the garden and a large patio for gatherings.

“It was the place where everyone in the village would come together,” Kameli told me in Beirut, where she lives.

She showed pictures of the damage that, she said, was caused by two ******** rockets. The second-floor balcony had collapsed, crashing down on everything.

“I go to bed and wake up with tears in my eyes. This is the history of my family,” Kameli, a 54-year-old seamstress, said. “I’m concerned that things can escalate, of course I’m concerned.” But there was nothing she could do – “just pray to ****”.

In *******, where tens of thousands of people have been displaced from northern communities, and vast tracts of land destroyed by fires sparked by Hezbollah rockets, the authorities are under growing pressure to act. But Western officials say no decision has been made.

Reuters

******* says Hezbollah’s attacks must stop, one way or another

The expected scaling down of *******’s military operations in Gaza could lead to more troops being deployed to the northern border. ******** Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said security would be restored “one way or another”, and that the military was “prepared for very intense action”, although some of his recent remarks have been less confrontational.

Hezbollah, seen as a significantly more formidable foe than ******, has been preparing for another conflict with ******* since their last one, in 2006. The group has about 150,000 rockets and missiles, according to Western estimates, which could overwhelm *******’s sophisticated air defence systems.

The arsenal also includes ******* drones and precision guided missiles capable of striking deep inside *******. Hezbollah also relies on thousands of men who have battlefield experience from fighting in the civil war in Syria, and Hassan Nasrallah has warned ******* to expect “surprises” in the case of a large military offensive by *******.

Other Iranian-supported groups in the region, part of what Tehran calls the “Axis of Resistance”, have vowed to join the ******. “A war is possible but not inevitable,” a senior Hezbollah official told me.

Lebanon, meanwhile, has been in a state of permanent crisis for more than half a decade. In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic hit; then, the Beirut port **********. The economy has collapsed, with 80% of the population estimated to be in ********. There has not been a president for almost two years because of seemingly never-ending political disputes.

Any war would be disastrous for the country, and the government has limited influence – if any – over the group which, like ******, is considered a ********** organisation by the ***, the US and others.

“What’s happening is already affecting us all,” Faad Assaf, a 48-year-old salesman, told me recently. The shop where he worked in Hamra, Beirut, was empty. “We’re afraid for the younger generation. We don’t want them to live what we went through – war.”

As Raymonda Chamoun, the party organiser, put it: “The general mood in the country is of burnout. People are tired.”

Additional reporting by Leena Saidi

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