[NASA] New Paper Redefining Characteristics of Lightning-Initiated Wildfire Ignition

[SpaceMan 0]

Christopher Schultz (ST11) led a team consisting of Phillip Bitzer (UAH), Michael Antia (Jacobs), Jonathan Case (Ensco), and Christopher Hain (MSFC) to examine 26-years of lightning-initiated wildfires (LIW) to understand the types of lightning that were producing wildfire events within the ******* States. Twenty-six years of lightning data were paired with over 68,000 LIW reports to understand lightning flash characteristics responsible for ignition in between 1995 and 2020. Results indicate that 92% of LIW were started by negative cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes and 57% were single ******* flashes. Moreover, 62% of LIW reports did not have a positive CG within 10 km of the start location, contrary to the science literature’s suggestion that positive CG flashes are a dominant *****-starting mechanism. Nearly 1/3rd of wildfire events were holdovers, meaning one or more days elapsed between lightning occurrence and ***** report. However, fires that were reported less than a day after lightning occurrence statistically burned more acreage. Peak current was not found to be a statistically significant delineator between ***** starters and non-***** starters for -CGs but was for positive CGs. Results highlighted the need for reassessing the role of positive CG lightning and subsequently long continuing current in wildfire ignition started by lightning. One outcome of this study’s results is the development of real-time tools to identify ignition potential during lightning events to aid in ***** mitigation efforts. Furthermore, the findings of this study should lead to new science in defining the continuing current duration needed to ignite a ***** as a function of the underlying land surface.

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