Most crime has fallen by 90% in 30 years—so why does the public think it’s increased?

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Most ****** has fallen by 90% in 30 years—so why does the public think it’s increased?

Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

Seventy-eight percent of people in England and Wales think that ****** has gone up in the last few years, according to the

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. But the data on actual ****** shows the exact opposite.

As of 2024, *********, burglary and car ****** have been declining for 30 years and by close to 90%, according to the ****** Survey for England and Wales (CSEW)—our best indicator of true ****** levels. Unlike police data, the CSEW is not subject to variations in reporting and recording.

The drop in ********* includes

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and other ********* against women.

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has similarly declined. While increased ****** and computer misuse now make up

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, this mainly reflects how far the rates of other ******* have fallen.

All high-income countries have experienced similar trends, and there is

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that the decline in ****** is a

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.

There is strong research evidence that security improvements were responsible for the drop. This is most obvious with

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and door deadlocks, and better

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—stronger door frames, double glazed windows and security fittings—along with an

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in shopping centers, sports stadiums, schools, businesses and elsewhere. Quite simply, it became more difficult to commit *******.

Decreases in ******* often committed by teenagers, such as joyriding or burglary, had a multiplying effect: when teenagers could no longer commit these easy “debut *******” they did not progress to longer ********* careers.

There are, of course, exceptions. Some places, times and ****** types had a less pronounced decline or even an increase. For many years, phone theft was an exception to the general decline in theft. Cybercrime, measured by the CSEW as ****** and computer misuse, has increased and is the most prominent exception.

But this increase was not due to thwarted burglars and car thieves switching targets: the

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and rewards for cybercrime are

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. Rather, it reflects new ****** opportunities facilitated by the internet. Preventive policy and practice is

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at closing off opportunities for computer misuse, but work is needed to accelerate those prevention efforts.

The perception gap

So why is there such a gulf between public perception and the reality of ****** trends? A regular

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asks respondents for their top three concerns from a broad set of issues. Concern about ****** went from a low in 2016 (when people were more concerned with Brexit), quadrupled by 2019 and plummeted during the pandemic when people had other worries. But in the last year, the public’s concern about ****** has risen again.

Proportion of people naming ****** as a top three issue facing the country:

There are many possible explanations for this, of which the first is poor information. A

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published in 1998 found that “people who watch a lot of television or who read a lot of newspapers will be exposed to a steady diet of ****** stories” that does not reflect official statistics.

The old news media adage “if it bleeds, it leads” reflects how violent news stories, including ****** increases and serious *******, capture public attention. ****** ****** grabs headlines in the ***, but our shock at individual incidents is testament to their rarity and our relative success in controlling *********—many **** ******* do not make the news in the US.

Most recent

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have featured knives (plus a

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), but there is little discussion of how this indicates that measures to restrict guns and *****-making resources are effective.

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can also skew perceptions, particularly in the run-up to elections. During the recent local elections, the Conservatives were

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for an advert portraying London as “a ****** capital of the world” (using a video of New York), while Labor has also made reference to

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under the current government.

There are also some “****** drop deniers,” who have vested interests in ****** not declining due to, for example, ***** of budget cuts. One of us (Graham) worked with a former police chief who routinely denied the existence of declining ******.

Despite the evidence of ****** rates dropping, some concerns are justified. Victims, along with their families and friends, have legitimate concerns, particularly as

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against the same people and at the same places.

And, while the trend is clear, there are nevertheless localized increases in some types of offending. When these relate to harmful and emotive issues like ****** ****** in London, for example, it is natural that this might have a substantial influence.

We are unlikely to be able to change political agendas or journalists’ approach to reporting. But governments should be taking a more rational approach to ****** that is based on evidence, not public perception.

Local governments need to keep on top of their local ****** hotspots: problem bars and clubs where ****** occurs, shops where shoplifting is concentrated, local road traffic offense hotspots and so on. The common theme here is how ****** concentrates.

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government, meanwhile, should lead on reducing ****** opportunities via national-level levers. Only national government can influence social media platforms and websites that host online ****** and encourage larger

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to improve manufacturing, retailing and service industry practices.

The positive story around ****** rarely makes headlines, but this should not put us off from learning the lessons borne out in the data. We know this can work from past success, but it took decades to get car makers to improve vehicle security and to get

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ideas in building regulations. Society needs to move more quickly.

Provided by
The Conversation

This article is republished from

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under a Creative Commons license. Read the

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Citation:
Most ****** has fallen by 90% in 30 years—so why does the public think it’s increased? (2024, May 14)
retrieved 14 May 2024
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