China’s economy is headed for a ‘dead-end,’ and Beijing won’t do anything to stop it, scholar says

[Pelican Press 0]

China’s economy is headed for a ‘*****-end,’ and Beijing won’t do anything to stop it, scholar says

China’s leadership is relying on an export surge to revive slumping growth, but those policies won’t extract the world’s second largest economy from the malaise that it’s in, a top China watcher said.

Anne Stevenson-Yang, cofounder of J Capital Research and the author of Wild Ride: A Short History of the Opening and Closing of the ******** Economy, pointed to failures by Beijing in an

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on Saturday.

“Years of erratic and irresponsible policies, excessive ********** Party control and undelivered promises of reform have created a *****-end ******** economy of weak domestic consumer demand and slowing growth,” she wrote. “The only way that China’s leaders can see to pull themselves out of this ***** is to fall back on pumping out exports.”

The result will be more tension with China’s trade partners as

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, while the ******** people will turn gloomier, causing the government to get more repressive, Stevenson-Yang predicted.

The root cause of China’s economic problems is the ********** Party’s excessive control, which isn’t going away, while its strategies that focus on adding more industrial capacity are counterproductive, she said.

Most economists have recommended that ******** leaders loosen their grip on the private sector and promote more consumption, which would entail reforming the government—”and that is unacceptable,” she added.

The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests represented an opportunity to liberalize the government in response to the growing private sector that emerged from economic reforms started a decade earlier. But that would’ve weakened the ********** Party’s power, Stevenson-Yang pointed out.

“Instead, China’s leaders chose to ****** the protesters, further tighten party control and get hooked on government investment to fuel the economy,” she said.

In the decades that followed, China’s investment-driven growth sought to pacify the people, while its cheap exports kept prices lower in the West. Meanwhile, debt piled up throughout China, and new infrastructure and housing sat underutilized.

Now, President Xi Jinping is running out of policy options, Stevenson-Yang warned, as ******** consumers refuse to boost spending, and China’s trade partners put up more barriers to its exports. In fact, the Biden administration is poised to impose severe

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. Innovation won’t come to the rescue either, as China’s economy still relies mostly on replicating existing technologies, she added.

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“All of this means that the ‘reform and opening’ era, which has transformed China and captivated the world since it began in the late 1970s, has ended with a whimper,” she concluded. “Mao Zedong once said that in an uncertain world, the ******** must ‘Dig tunnels deep, store grain everywhere and never seek hegemony.’ That sort of siege mentality is coming back.”

China’s slowing growth, real estate crisis, high youth unemployment, and U.S. restrictions on key technologies have led to predictions of a

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of stagnation. Pointing to China’s aging population, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni last year said the country could become “

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.”

But a top China expert warned last month against such pessimism, saying

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.

“While its growth has slowed in recent years, China is likely to expand at twice the rate of the ******* States in the years ahead,” wrote Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, in 

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China,********** Party
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