Areas with more illegal market opportunities more likely to be targeted by organized crime, study shows

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Areas with more ******** market opportunities more likely to be targeted by organized ******, study shows

Constructing links in Organized ****** Mobility Networks. Notes: This figure shows how links are built in the Organized ****** Mobility Network in Cambridgeshire. We observe Offender X committing three offenses in LSOA A (Panel (A)), one in LSOA B (Panel (B)) and one in LSOA C (Panel (C)). We can identify LSOA A as the “focal community” as it is the community in which Offender X commits the majority of their offenses. We then establish two directed links going from LSOA A to LSOA B and from LSOA A to LSOA C. Credit: Trends in Organized ****** (2024). DOI: 10.1007/s12117-024-09531-7

Communities with higher-than-average ******** market opportunities (proxied by *****-related activities) are more likely to be targeted by organized ****** groups, a new study shows.

********** in the gangs are also more likely to target urban communities, according to the analysis of police data.

The

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, by Paolo Campana from the University of Cambridge and Cecilia Meneghini from the University of Exeter, is published in the journal Trends in Organized ******.

Researchers reconstructed the movement of organized ****** members using police data on 41 months’ worth of recorded ****** events.

The anonymous ****** incident data was recorded by Cambridgeshire Constabulary between May 2018 and October 2021. It includes information on all ****** events in which organized ****** members appear as either suspects or victims.

Experts found slightly less than half of the communities in Cambridgeshire were impacted by the movement of organized ******.

Researchers focused on 121 organized ****** members who offended in multiple areas. They analyzed information on 1,073 ****** events committed by these offenders: 22.4% were *****-related ****** events, 16.3% concern thefts and burglaries, 6.2% robberies, 7.9% ********* damage, 13.2% relate to violent ****** with injury, 7.4% to violent ****** without injury and 14% to threats and harassment.

Organized ****** groups were more prevalent in urban rather than rural communities, and towns and cities had a higher level of criminality overall. Organized ****** offenders were more likely to move into communities within close geographical distance, or alternatively, between the major urban areas of the county.

Through analysis of these networks, the researchers found that some of the most active communities appear to act both as source and target locations of organized ****** activities, receiving an inflow of organized ****** offenders whose main area of operation is elsewhere and acting as turf communities for organized ****** members who also offend elsewhere. Other communities had a clearer role as either a stronghold of organized ****** activities or as a target of organized ****** expansion.

Dr. Meneghini said, “Our results suggest organized ****** offenders have their turf in the most deprived and criminally active communities of the county, and they tend to move into areas where ******** market opportunities are present and with a similar socio-demographic profile. Such movement is also more likely to happen between urban communities.”

Dr. Campana added, “Organized ****** group members appear to target communities that have higher-than-average ******** market opportunities. The presence of economic market opportunities makes a community attractive to organized ******. There is strong evidence that income deprivation increases the probability of a territory sending organized ****** members while its impact on being a receiver of such movement is less clear. When moving, organized ****** group members select territories that are similar to their own. Jumping into the ‘unknown’ may be seen as too difficult or too risky.”

Experts used network analysis to analyze movement. Their approach can be scaled up to study transnational, long-distance movement as well as scaled down, focusing on smaller geographical areas.

This could allow law enforcement agencies and policymakers to map the movement of organized ****** members across territories, and—if repeated over time—to be able to pick up emerging trends.

More information:
Paolo Campana et al, Organised ****** movement across local communities: A network approach, Trends in Organized ****** (2024).

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Areas with more ******** market opportunities more likely to be targeted by organized ******, study shows (2024, May 9)
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