How to tell if a conspiracy theory is probably false

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How to tell if a *********** theory is probably false

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*********** theories

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, and they can involve just about anything.

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for a

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—including the fact that

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, like efforts by the Sackler family to profit by

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at the cost of

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.

The extreme consequences of unfounded conspiratorial beliefs could be seen on the staircases of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and in the

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outside the courthouse holding the latest Trump trial.

But if hidden forces really are at work in the world, how is someone to know

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?

That’s where my research comes in; I’m a

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who studies

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. Here are some ways to vet a claim you’ve seen or heard.

Step 1: Seek out the evidence

Real conspiracies have been confirmed because there was evidence. For instance, in the allegations dating back to the 1990s that

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and kept that information secret to make money, scientific studies showed problematic links between tobacco and *******. Court cases unearthed corporate documents with internal memos showing what executives knew and when. Investigative journalists revealed efforts to hide that information. Doctors explained the effects on their patients. Internal whistleblowers sounded the alarm.

But unfounded *********** theories reveal their lack of evidence and substitute instead several elements that should be red flags for skeptics:

• Dismissing
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  , claiming they are in on the plot.
• Claiming that missing information is because someone is hiding it, even though it’s common that not all facts are known completely for some time after an event.
• Attacking
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  as evidence of *****.
• Overinterpreting ambiguity as evidence: A flying object may be unidentified—but that’s different from identifying it as an alien spaceship.
• Using anecdotes—especially vaguely attributed ones—in place of evidence, such as “
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  ” such-and-such or “my cousin’s friend experienced” something.
• Attributing knowledge to
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  that only a select few can grasp—rather than evidence that’s plain and clear to all.

Step 2: Test the allegation

Often, a *********** theorist presents only evidence that confirms their idea. Rarely do they put their idea to the tests of

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While they may say they do research, they typically

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. Specifically, they don’t actually try to prove themselves wrong.

So a skeptic can follow the method scientists use when they do research: Think about what

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—and then go looking for that evidence.

Sometimes that effort will yield confirmation that the explanation is correct. And sometimes not. Like a scientist, ask yourself: What would it take for you to believe your perception was wrong?

Step 3: Watch out for tangled webs

When theories claim large groups of people are perpetrating wide-ranging activities over a long ******* of time, that’s another red flag.

Confirmed conspiracies typically involve small, isolated groups, like the top echelon of a company or a single ********** cell. Even the alliance among tobacco companies to hide their products’ danger was confined to those at the top, who made decisions and

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to spread their messages.

False conspiracies tend to implicate wide swaths of people, such as world leaders, mainstream media outlets, the global scientific community, the Hollywood entertainment industry and interconnected government agencies.

The

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—the man who self-immolated on the steps of a New York courthouse in April 2024– railed against a *********** allegedly including every president since Bill Clinton, **** offender Jeffrey Epstein, even the writers of “The Simpsons.”

Remember that the more people who supposedly know a secret, the ******* it is to keep.

Step 4: Look for a motive

Confirmed conspiracies tell stories about why a group of people acted as they did and what they hoped to gain. Dubious conspiracies involve a lot of accusations or just questions without examining what real benefit the *********** nets the conspirators, especially when factoring in the costs.

For instance, what purpose would NASA have to lie about the

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?

Be particularly suspicious when conspiracies allege an “agenda” being perpetrated by an entire sociodemographic, which is often a marginalized group, such as a “gay agenda” or “******* agenda.”

Also look to see whether those spreading the *********** theories have something to gain. For example, scholarly research has

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who are the primary sources of false claims about vaccinations. The researchers also found that those people

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.

Step 5: Seek the source of the allegations

If you can’t figure out who is at the root of a *********** allegation and thus how they came to know what they claim, that is another red flag. Some people say they have to remain anonymous because the conspiracists will take revenge for revealing information. But even so, a *********** can usually be tracked back to its source—maybe a social media account, even an anonymous one.

Over time, anonymous sources either come forward or are revealed. For instance, years after the Watergate scandal took down Richard Nixon’s presidency, a key inside source known as “Deep Throat” was

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, who had been a high-level FBI official in the early 1970s.

Even the

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at the heart of the

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has been identified, and not by government investigators chasing leaks of national secrets. Surprise! Q is not the high-level official some people believed.

Reliable sources are transparent.

Step 6: Beware the supernatural

Some *********** theories—though none that have been proven—involve paranormal, alien, demonic or other supernatural forces. People alive in the 1980s and 1990s might remember the public ***** that

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were abusing and sacrificing children. That idea

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.

And around the same time, perhaps inspired by the TV series “V,” some Americans began to

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. It may seem harmless to keep hoping for evidence of Bigfoot, but the person who detonated a ***** in downtown Nashville on Dec. 25, 2020, apparently believed

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.

The closer the *********** is to science fiction, the closer it is to just being fiction.

Step 7: Look for other warning signs

There are other red flags too, like the use of

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about the group allegedly behind the ***********, particularly

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allegations.

But rather than doing the work to really examine their conspiratorial beliefs, believers often choose to write off the skeptics as fools or as also being in on it—whatever “it” may be.

Ultimately, that’s part of the

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. It is easier to

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than to admit you might be wrong.

Provided by
The Conversation

This article is republished from

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under a Creative Commons license. Read the

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Citation:
How to tell if a *********** theory is probably false (2024, May 8)
retrieved 8 May 2024
from

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