Stocks rally but headwinds remain for second half of the year

[Pelican Press 0]

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Stocks rally but headwinds remain for second half of the year

00:00 Speaker A

Talk to me about how you are thinking about stocks in the second half of this year and can the rally that we’re seeing kicking off this morning continue?

00:09 Speaker B

Yeah, look, so I grew up with stocks in my DNA, right? You know, this this is how I really like love to take risk. Uh, unfortunately, I’m not as optimistic as some of the market pricing kind of would now suggest. So let me put it this way. Um, I think there are a number of significant headwinds in the second half of this year that are not being reflected in risk asset prices. And people are afraid to miss a rally if there is one. So, they’re not positioned frankly for some of the weaker news and perhaps some of these headwinds on earnings, on macro, on tariffs, on policy, even if they discuss them. Um, I prefer to stay up in quality in the equity market, so that means a bias towards large caps, mega caps that can earn through all parts of the cycle. And I prefer to stay really anchored outside of the US to countries and markets where I think there could be fiscal stimulus and policy support.

00:59 Speaker A

Where are those countries?

01:01 Speaker B

You know, we see some areas of Europe. I mean, everyone’s gotten themselves very excited about Germany, for example. Also, we have to recognize that spend mostly comes in the second half of 2026. Uh, but there’s perhaps scope for additional fiscal stimulus on the margin in some European countries. I also think there’s more scope, frankly, for stimulus in China. Um, we’ve had some kind of deflationary pressures, some of the demand hasn’t looked great. That said, we know the government wants to continue to support the market and they have the scope on both the monetary and the fiscal side if the, the tariff headwinds end up becoming a real issue in the next couple of quarters.

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#Stocks #rally #headwinds #remain #year

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