‘Don’t Think They Would Convict’ (Exclusive)

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‘Don’t Think They Would Convict’ (Exclusive)

NEED TO KNOW

Sean “Diddy” Combs’ federal trial is now in its fourth week

A former Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York told PEOPLE it’s unlikely a jury would convict Combs

Combs is charged with sex trafficking, racketeering and transportation to engage in prostitution

Despite explosive testimony in

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‘ sex trafficking trial, a former Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York told PEOPLE on May 28 the prosecutors had taken too long to present their case — potentially swaying the jury toward acquitting the embattled music mogul.

For weeks, Combs, 55, has maintained an attentive and easygoing presence inside a Manhattan federal courtroom — occasionally shaking his head, fidgeting in his seat or passing sticky notes to his attorneys. But on June 5, Judge

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threatened to

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for allegedly flashing facial expressions at jurors. Between breaks in the tense proceedings, Combs has also exchanged blown kisses and heart signs with his mother,

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, seated just feet away in the gallery.

Combs is facing serious federal charges — including sex trafficking, racketeering and transportation to engage in prostitution — that could send him to prison for life. But legal experts have questioned whether prosecutors are proving the charges in court.

Kevin Mazur/Getty

Cassie Ventura and Sean “Diddy” Combs attend the Clive Davis and Recording Academy Pre-GRAMMY Gala on January 27, 2018 in New York City.

Despite four days of gripping testimony from ex-girlfriend

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— who painted a harrowing picture of 11 years of alleged abuse and drug-fueled

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parties during four days on the stand beginning on Tuesday, May 13 — former prosecutor

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told PEOPLE exclusively that the case may be losing momentum.

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“If the jury had to decide today, I don’t think they would convict,” Biedel, now a criminal defense attorney, said on May 28. “This is also because they don’t have the benefit of all the rest of the evidence at this point. But to obtain a conviction, the prosecution has to identify the co-conspirators and probably call them as witnesses — at least some of them and I would have put them earlier — and get some understanding of the scope of what this was, how it started and why.”

Federal prosecutors allege Combs led a secretive criminal ring cloaked by celebrity, manipulating power, sex and fame in order to exploit women. According to court documents, he and his associates allegedly lured victims with promises of romance — only to trap them in a cycle of coercion and abuse.

Ventura, who was eight and a half months pregnant at the time of her testimony, described being beaten, manipulated and coerced into sex acts with prostitutes — all while trying to build a career under Combs’s watch.

But Biedel questioned if the government’s strategy could be backfiring. “To prove racketeering, they need to show this was a corrupt organization,” she said. “Right now, they’re leaning heavily on Cassie’s testimony. I’m not going to say that’s not relevant to establishing racketeering, but her testimony in those corroborating witnesses standing alone doesn’t really push everything you need to establish to prove racketeering. It might if we were in state court. It might prove domestic abuse and any number of other state court charges, but for racketeering, you obviously need to talk about a corrupt organization.”

Prosecutors also introduced texts between the pair that appear to show her arranging the now-infamous “freak offs.” In one July 2013 exchange, the

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wrote, “Wish we could’ve FO’d before you left. My ******* is over :(” In another message, Combs wrote: “I want a freak-off right now lol,” to which Ventura responded: “Lol me too. Well, I want to have fun with you.”

Those messages, said Biedel, cut both ways. “The prosecution is arguing coercion — and it can be psychological, not just physical. They are trying to prove Combs leveraged his status over her career. But the defense will say those texts show consent. It’s complicated, and all something that the jury is going to have to hash out.”

For the government to secure a conviction, prosecutors must prove not just sex-trafficking, which holds a minimum 15 year sentence, but that Combs operated a criminal enterprise using force, fraud, or coercion — the legal standard for racketeering cases.

“I would have brought out the co-conspirators earlier,” Biedel told PEOPLE. “In this kind of case, and I think the biggest thing they are still missing, and they haven’t proved: Is this legitimate music enterprise, also separately, a RICO enterprise engaged in ******** activity? I think that’s the hardest piece to prove. If there are others who helped arrange these parties or silence victims, jurors need to hear from them — and soon.”

Combs, meanwhile, has pleaded not guilty to the charges, and his lawyers have strongly denied the central allegations of the case: that he coerced at least two women into drug-fueled sex marathons with male prostitutes and used bodyguards and other employees as part of a criminal enterprise to orchestrate and conceal the abuse.

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REUTERS/Jane Rosenberg

Sean “Diddy” Combs watches as witness “Mia” testifies in Combs’ sex trafficking trial in New York City, New York, U.S., May 29, 2025 in this courtroom sketch.

Two women have testified under pseudonyms

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and “Jane” alleging Combs abused them, and Biedel believes the prosecution still has time to turn the tide. “A prosecutor won’t indict a case unless they think they have proof beyond a reasonable doubt of all the necessary elements,” she said, adding,” So I certainly would go into this with the assumption that they believe that they have the necessary proof.”

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But she also offered a cautionary note: “I like to try to resist the urge to put on too much evidence sometimes, and I wonder if that’s where we are here — like they’re just doing too much with the Cassie Ventura testimony and the corroboration of that, and because it’s been taking so long, it feels like: when are they getting to this other evidence?”

She explained: “You’re always so in the weeds on these cases — you know every twist and turn you’ve looked at the documents for ions, sometimes it’s just the human nature out of you think what you’re saying and doing is convincing, but it isn’t because … you know way more than everybody else knows and you just like don’t realize it’s not coming across the way that you want.”

But she also added that some of the defense’s cross-examination tactics — particularly of Ventura and other witnesses — have also strayed off course. “I’m thinking: Why are they even asking that?'” she said.

A woman identified in prosecutors’ court filings as “Victim 3” — the pseudonym used to protect her identity — is no longer expected to take the stand. Questions about her availability arose last month, when prosecutors told the court they had been unable to reach her attorney. Still, Victim 3, who has been referred to in testimony by only the name Gina, has hovered over the case as Ventura and others have described Combs’s overlapping romantic and ******* relationships. A woman identified by prosecutors as Victim 5, who will be testifying using her real name, is expected to also take the stand in the coming weeks.

And Combs may yet take the stand in his own defense. In the Hulu documentary

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, his defense attorney, Marc Agnifilo, said, “I don’t know that I could keep him off the stand. He is very eager to tell his story.”

But that move could be risky, legal analyst and ex-federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani

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. Testifying would subject Combs to cross-examination and make his words admissible in more than 60 pending civil cases. More broadly, Rahmani expects that Combs’s defense will continue to argue his accusers are motivated by “fame, money or revenge” and challenge their credibility.

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As for whether jurors will ultimately convict the Bad Boy Records founder, Biedel said the jury’s patience may be running thin. “In my opinion, it’s too long. I think jurors have only a certain attention span. The media and others are asking where is the evidence of all this other stuff? You know, the villagers are getting restless, and the jury is feeling that too.”

Whether Combs walks free or spends the rest of his life behind bars, one thing is certain: his federal trial has captured global attention, with minute-by-minute media coverage. Ultimately, his fate rests in the hands of the twelve jurors — eight men and four women — tasked with delivering a verdict.

If you or someone you know has been ********* assaulted, please contact the National ******* Assault Hotline at 1-800-656-HOPE (4673) or go to

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