Pro-EU and MAGA visions clash as Poland votes

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Pro-EU and MAGA visions clash as Poland votes

Poland is holding a knife-edge presidential election to determine whether the largest country in the European Union’s eastern wing cements its place in the bloc’s mainstream or turns towards MAGA-style nationalism.

Turnout holds the key to the contest between Rafal Trzaskowski of ruling centrists Civic Coalition (KO), who holds a narrow lead, and Karol Nawrocki, backed by nationalists Law and Justice (PiS).

Parliament holds most power in Poland but the president can veto legislation so the vote is being watched closely in neighbouring Ukraine, as well as in Russia, the US and across the EU.

Both candidates agree on the need to spend heavily on defence, as US President Donald Trump is demanding from Europe, and to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s three-year-old invasion.

But while Trzaskowski sees Ukraine’s future membership of NATO as essential for Poland’s security, Nawrocki has recently said he would not ratify it as president as this could draw the alliance into a war with Russia.

Trzaskowski says strong relations with both Brussels and Washington are essential for Poland’s security, but Nawrocki, who met Trump in the White House in May, prioritises relations with the US.

If Nawrocki wins, he is likely to follow a similar path to President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally who has used his veto power to block the government’s efforts to undo the previous PiS administration’s judicial reforms which the EU says undermined the independence of the courts.

Coming around a year-and-a half since Prime Minister Donald Tusk took office, the vote provides the stiffest test yet of support for his broad coalition government, with Nawrocki presenting the ballot as a referendum on its actions.

Voting begins at 7am (3pm AEST) on Sunday and the electoral commission says it hopes final results will be announced on Monday.

Opinion polls show that the difference between the candidates is within the margin of error.

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