The world could experience a year above 2°C of warming by 2029

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The world could experience a year above 2°C of warming by 2029

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Greenhouse gas missions have driven 1.44°C of warming since pre-industrial times

Chris Conway/Getty Images

The world could see its first year of warming above 2°C by the end of the decade, leading climate scientists have warned for the first time.

Each year, researchers at the Met Office – the ***’s national weather service – use observational climate data and modelling from institutions around the world to predict the global climate for the coming five years.

Their results suggest the average temperature in a single year could exceed 2°C above pre-industrial times by 2029, a result that would mark a significant and sobering milestone in the fight against climate change.

“That was effectively impossible a few years ago,”

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at the Met Office told reporters during a briefing. Such an event would be “completely unprecedented”, he added.

The Paris Agreement of 2015 aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with an additional target of keeping warming at or below 1.5°C. Those aims would only be missed if that level of temperature rise is sustained over a couple of decades.

Last year was the first single year to record temperatures above the 1.5°C threshold, driven by rising emissions and a strong El Niño weather pattern. There is an 86 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will breach the same threshold, according to the

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, produced for the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Meanwhile, there is a 70 per cent chance that average warming for the entire 2025-2029 ******* will exceed 1.5°C, the team says. That compares with a 47 per cent chance given in the 2024 report, which covered the ******* 2024-2028. “These latest predictions suggest that we really are very close now to having 1.5°C years [being] commonplace,” said Scaife. “These are shocking statistics.”

The chances of seeing a year above 2°C of warming are still very slim, with the WMO/Met Office team estimating the probability at 1 per cent. “It’s exceptionally unlikely, but it could happen,”

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at the Met Office said during the briefing. “It’s not something anyone wants to see, but that is what the science is telling us.”

Pushing the annual average temperature above 2°C is likely to require a “perfect storm” of factors, said Scaife. These could include a powerful El Niño pattern that would drive warmth from the Pacific Ocean, alongside a positive Arctic Oscillation, which would increase land warming across Eurasia.

But while the odds are currently slim, the likelihood of a 2°C year is expected to increase dramatically over the coming years unless greenhouse gas emissions fall rapidly.

It has been only a decade since the Met Office and WMO first confirmed the possibility that the world could see a year above 1.5°C of warming. Now the world is hovering perilously close to exceeding the 1.5°C threshold: the report estimates that the long-term average temperature is 1.44°C above pre-industrial levels.

“Where we were in 2015 with 1.5°C is where we are now with 2°C,” said Hermanson. “If things continue the way they are, the chance of that will also increase very steeply.”

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at the WMO said there is still a window of opportunity to avoid the most dangerous effects of climate change, by radically cutting emissions to hold temperatures as close to the 1.5°C threshold as possible. “Every fraction of a degree matters,” he said.

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