Who are the winners and losers?

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Who are the winners and losers?

Ben Chu, Tom Edgington and Tamara Kovacevic

BBC Verify

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A deal to “reset” relations between the *** and the EU following Brexit has been agreed at a summit in London.

The agreement covers a range of issues, including defence, fishing, the trade in food products and the ability of young people to move freely between the *** and the EU.

BBC Verify has gone through the deal, picking out the potential winners and losers.

Food

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Winner: *** food exporters to the EU who could see fewer checks

Loser: People who don’t want the *** to follow EU rules, as there are strings attached

Since Brexit, *** goods travelling to the EU – including food products – have faced new checks and extra paperwork.

Some items, such as *** exports of raw burgers and sausages, have been banned from entering the EU because they do not meet its strict import rules.

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– with volumes in 2024 down 34% compared with 2019 – and the industry blames this partly on the added red tape.

Now, both sides have agreed to work on a joint food safety agreement that could remove many of the current barriers.

If signed and fully implemented, it would reduce paperwork, ease checks, and could even lift bans on products like raw meats.

Food and drink exports to the EU in 2023

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, accounting for 57% of all the sector’s overseas sales.

But the deal comes with conditions. The *** will need to follow future EU food standards – a system known as “dynamic alignment” – and accept that the European Court of Justice will have the final say in any disputes in this area.

The *** will be also required to make a financial contribution. However is it currently unknown how much the payment would be and when it would be required.

Fishing

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Winner: The EU – fishing vessels get 12 more years of access to *** waters

Loser: *** fishermen who wanted annual negotiations on fishing access

Although fishing accounts for a very small part of the *** economy –

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– it is politically sensitive.

The “reset” document notes “political agreements leading to full reciprocal access to waters to fish until 30 June 2038” – a 12-year extension to the current deal negotiated by Boris Johnson’s Conservative government – and much longer than expected.

Under the existing agreement (due to expire in 2026), EU vessels get access to *** waters to fish – in return for transferring 25% of their fishing quota – the amount they are allowed to catch – to *** fleets.

Some *** fishing groups have criticised the existing deal and do not want to see it extended.

Elspeth Macdonald, who represents 450 fishing boats as chief executive of the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation says: “This deal is a horror show for Scottish fishermen, far worse than Boris Johnson’s botched Brexit agreement.”

She says the long-term deal takes away the industry’s bargaining power in future talks and would prefer annual negotiations with the EU.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer says there will be “no increase in the amount that the EU vessels can catch in British waters” and says it will now be easier for *** fishermen to export their products.

In 2023, the ***

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, around 70% of all fish exports.

Tavish Scott from Salmon Scotland, which represents salmon farming in Scotland, says the agreement to reduce checks would “speed up the delivery of our premium salmon to market”.

Youth mobility

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Winner: Young people in the *** and EU who should – if this is confirmed – be able to work and study more freely between the two

Loser: Those who oppose an increase in net migration to the *** will point out that any mobility scheme could affect immigration figures, although this effect may be temporary

The details here are still to be confirmed, but the winners would be those young people from both the *** and EU who would be able to work and study more easily across Europe and Great Britain. Other youth mobility schemes have focused on people aged 18 to 30.

However, the impact of what is being called a “youth experience scheme” could be uneven.

Before Brexit more young people from the EU came to the *** than went the other way.

And, remember, Sir Keir has pledged to “significantly” reduce immigration levels in the coming years. So there’s a big question mark on what impact a ***-EU scheme could have on *** immigration levels.

Madeleine Sumption from Oxford University’s Migration Observatory told BBC Verify that a scheme would likely increase net migration in the short term, as new participants arrive.

However, she adds that if everyone left the *** when their visa expired, the long-term impact on migration levels would be minimal.

“If the *** is worried about the impact, it could phase in the scheme, where it gradually increases the quota. So as people leave, the quota could be raised rather than a big bang all come at once,” she said.

eGates

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Winner: British tourists may be able to use eGates at EU airports but we do not know which ones and from when

Loser: Those expecting to escape long queues this summer

As part of the agreement, *** nationals will be able to use eGates at EU airports, rather than having their passport manually checked by a border officer.

The government claims: “British holidaymakers will be able to use more eGates in Europe, ending the dreaded queues at border control.”

However the text of the EU-*** agreement is less clear, only referring to the “

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“.

It is unlikely any change will be implemented by the summer, travel organisation Abta told BBC Verify.

Abta believes the deal clarifies that the EU countries can offer eGates to *** nationals once a new Entry/Exit System (EES) comes into effect in October.

EES is an automated IT system for registering all non-EU travellers for a short stay, each time they cross the EU’s external borders.

Whether *** passengers will avoid a border guard altogether will depend on the technology at each border crossing, Abta says.

Defence

Winner: *** defence firms may get contracts from new EU rearmament fund

Loser: EU defence firms which hoped to get more of these revenues

The EU has established a Security Action for Europe fund (SAFE) with €150bn (£126bn) of loans, backed by the EU budget, to enable its member states to rearm.

This was going to be spent on EU-based defence firms. The fund also allows for the involvement of a number of non-EU countries and could now be opened up to *** defence companies too. This would potentially allow EU firms to use the fund to buy kit from the ***.

The *** has a large defence manufacturing industry relative to many EU states and this sector directly

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in the ***.

Between 2020 and 2024, the *** was

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to have accounted for around 3.6% of total global annual arms exports, making the *** the seventh largest national exporter.

Again, the detail is still being worked out here and we do not know when and exactly how the *** will participate in the fund.

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#winners #losers

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