TD Cowen downgrades UnitedHealth on changes to Medicare Advantage

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TD Cowen downgrades UnitedHealth on changes to Medicare Advantage

TD Cowen is moving to the sidelines on UnitedHealth . The firm downgraded the health insurance giant to hold from buy and trimmed its price target $308 per share from $520. TD Cowen’s new forecast implies about 6% upside from Friday’s close. Analyst Ryan Langston said changes to the V28 Medicare Advantage model could serve as a lingering headwind over UnitedHealth. “We believe v28 risk model changes are disproportionally impacting UNH given outsized RAF [risk adjustment factor] scores vs industry and 2026 is further effected with the year 3 phase-in,” Langston said. “Accelerating MA cost trend with potential increases in commercial/Medicaid as well as recent regulatory scrutiny further complicate the story.” Langston’s call comes during a rough ******* for UnitedHealth. The company announced last week that CEO Andrew Witty stepped down for “personal reasons” and suspended its 2025 guidance . On top of that, The Wall Street Journal reported that the company was the subject of a U.S. Department of Justice investigation . Shares have plummeted more than 42% in 2025. Last week alone, it dropped over 23%. UNH YTD mountain UnitedHealth stock. “UNH correctly foreshadowed accelerating cost trend in mid-2023. If this accelerating activity were to materialize in Commercial and/or Medicaid (to be clear, UNH says that is not currently the case), we see further potential downside risk to consensus estimates,” the analyst added. Despite the downgrade, shares were up more than 4% in the premarket. .

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