[AI]Google’s AI Futures Fund may have to tread carefully

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’s recent announcement of an

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shows the company wants to invest in AI startups. It sees itself as providing capital, early access to AI models yet to reach production, and support for startups from experts at the company.

This is not

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’s first rodeo. To date, Alphabet (

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’s parent company) has invested in 38 AI companies. Big name

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include the ***’s DeepMind, Waymo, the autonomous vehicle intelligence company, and home automation specialist Nest.

While such investments signal a broad intent to at least associate

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with startups coming to market with a smart idea (if not necessarily to ******** up smaller companies), the current situation regarding the US courts’ attitude to monopolistic behaviour by

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questions just how far any relationship may go in the longer term.

If

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faces increased scrutiny in the next few years on the back of any eventual ruling the US Department of Justice makes, having what might be interpreted as a monopolistic position in AI could bring down the ire of the judiciary.

On the other hand, if

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is forced to divest itself of some of its more profitable divisions – the Chrome browser, the Android mobile operating system, some or all of its ad networks – the company may have to double down on its other sources of revenue; and AI could become its favoured métier.

If the board at Alphabet decide to bet large stakes on AI, one core aspect of doing so will need clear and definite resolution: the economic viability of continuing AI implementation in the forms that users have become familiar with in the last couple of years. According to

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, the AI ‘whale’, OpenAI, is struggling to monetise its operations to the extent that will satisfy its investors.

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’s share of the AI market is tiny in comparison with OpenAI’s, but it suffers from the same potential financial issues.

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’s way through may be to continue its original role as provider of information searched for on the internet, and use its models to improve the search results given to online queries, and perhaps monetise around that transaction: either charging end-users for AI-powered search, or having advertisers pay for top spots in AI-generated search results.

In that role,

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would be returning to its original function, but with the addition of AI algorithms under the surface – AI that improves a service that’s proven to be in massive demand, rather than AI being the main focus of user activity.

Meta’s latest

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signalled that Mark Zuckerberg wants to do just that:

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as a social connector, but have AI improve users’ experiences.

It’s proposed that any acquisitions by

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of AI companies in the future would have to get the approval of the US Department of Justice. The company says such a move would limit investment in future AI technologies,

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representatives during the anti-monopolistic search practices court case brought against

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by the DOJ.

If such a government approval edict were in place for

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, it would change the nature of companies that

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might fund via the AI Futures Fund or similar scheme. Rather than risking censure by appearing to add companies to the Alphabet stable that are in line with

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’s AI offerings, those benefiting from the company’s largess would be more likely to be niche players, bringing unique products to sectors of the economy where

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doesn’t already hold sway.

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’s acquisitions have been, at first glance, more in line with that seeking out of niche products to snap up. The Ring home smart device company (acquired in 2018 for $1bn) and One Medical (2022, $3.9bn) were purchases well outside of

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’s core cloud and retail verticals. Both, however, are prime sources of training data for AI models – consumer behaviour metrics and healthcare information are prime data real-estate.

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’s strategy for investment in smaller companies will need to be similarly canny, given that whatever the outcome of the DOJ case, its activities will be subject to intense scrutiny by the courts, end-users, and the press.

No article discussing the activities of US big tech companies would be complete in 2025 without the addition of caveats around the present American leadership’s attitude to competition in the sector. The elephant in the room is the real possibility of executive veto of, or significant amendment to, any judicial ruling. Those potential game-changing elements could affect

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and Alphabet’s investment plans with little notice and less reason.

(Image source: “Dallas DA LGBT Task Force visits DOJ FBP” by Dallas County DA is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.)

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