Argentina could be primed for big gains ahead. How to play the historically volatile market

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Argentina could be primed for big gains ahead. How to play the historically volatile market

It might be time for investors to take a closer look at Argentina. The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) is up more than 8% this year, outpacing the S & P 500 . The Merval index , Argentina’s benchmark index, is down 17% in 2025 but remains more than 47% higher over the past 12 months, outpacing most other global markets. For years, foreign investors have treaded carefully when it comes to Argentine stocks, as economic and political turmoil ignited wild swings. But as President Javier Milei lifts stringent capital controls , the sun could shine bright on this market. “We have a downbeat to neutral view on emerging markets equities, currencies and bonds. That includes India, Brazil, China and central Europe,” BCA Research emerging markets strategist Juan Egana told CNBC. “The only country that we actually have a bullish view on in absolute terms is Argentina.” ARGT .SPX YTD mountain SPX vs ARGT in 2025 The hope is that easing capital controls will lead to an influx of foreign investors putting money into the Argentine market. That move last month came as the country secured $20 billion in funding from the International Monetary Fund over four years; $12 billion of those were disbursed immediately . “Amid the storm of global financial uncertainty and rising economic populism, Argentina stands out as a free-market safe haven,” BCA chief emerging market strategist Arthur Budaghyan wrote in an April 22 note. It also follows the U.S. unveiling steep tariffs on imports from a slew of countries. Those duties sent global equities for a wild ride, with markets rising on the smallest sign of progress or falling on the most minute setback. But Diego Pereira, chief economist for South America at JPMorgan, said the Milei administration’s ideological similarities with the Trump White House could bring the countries closer — ultimately benefiting Argentina. Milei’s views on trade aligns with Trump’s rhetoric on tariffs, with the Argentine president threatening to leave the South American trade bloc Mercosur if doing so meant cementing a deal with the U.S. “Argentina is [taking] a lot of steps in the right direction in a world that is getting more fragmented, in which trade may not be as relevant as it used to be,” Pereira told CNBC. BCA’s Egana also lauded Milei’s measured steps to first stabilize Argentina’s economy before moving to lift the country’s capital controls. Doing so lifted a major concern for investors, and companies, that their money would be stuck inside Argentina, he said “If you can’t get your money out, what good is that to an investor?” Egana added. How to play it Investors looking for exposure to Argentine stocks can do so through the ARGT ETF. The fund — which is weighted toward consumer discretionary companies, as well as financials and energy — has an expense ratio of 0.59%. For those looking for individual stocks to buy, MercardoLibre may suit them. About 85% of analysts polled by FactSet have a buy rating on the stock, with their consensus price targets calling for about 8% further upside. Shares have skyrocketed more than 44% in 2025. MELI YTD mountain MELI in 2025 Barclays analyst Trevor Young specifically pointed out that the company is more insulated from Trump’s tariffs compared to peers due to MercadoLibre’s focus on South America. Only a small portion of the company’s operations are based in the U.S., which leaves the firm largely able to operate fully with little interruption, he said. “We think MELI screens reasonably well vs. the peer group, as they sell entirely in Latam, and only have one Texas fulfillment center serving Mexico, such that recent US tariff changes are not an impact on the company,” Young said.

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