Shopify Earnings: Impact of Tariff on Merchants Will Lay the Future Price Action

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Earnings: Impact of Tariff on Merchants Will Lay the Future Price Action

Wall Street is expecting healthy first-quarter results. All eyes are eager for news about the impact of the trade war on the small-to-medium-sized merchants. A factor to watch is the Q2 2025 guidance and management commentary around merchants’ exposure to tariffs.

Key Highlights

• The company has demonstrated remarkable performance with revenues reaching $8.88 billion over the last twelve months, representing a robust 25.78% year-over-year growth.
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  ’s (TSX:) expansion into enterprise and international markets represents a significant growth opportunity, offering potential for larger deal sizes and more stable recurring revenue.
• Potential strategic price increases could boost revenue and margins without significantly impacting customer acquisition or retention, potentially improving financial performance and justifying valuation multiples.
• Slowing growth rates could put pressure on
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  ’s high valuation multiples, potentially leading to a correction in the stock price if the company fails to meet or exceed growth expectations.
• Intensifying competition in the e-commerce space may challenge
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  ’s ability to maintain its market position, particularly as it expands into enterprise and international markets.

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SHOP Q1 2025 earnings premarket Thursday, May 8, 2025

Analyst Ratings
SOURCE	BUY	HOLD	SELL
Refinitiv	34	13	2
TipRanks	25	15	0

Earnings Expectation
EPS	0.25 USD
Revenue	2.26 B USD

Financial Health History

Financial Health for

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is determined by ranking the company on over 100 factors against companies in the Information Technology sector and operating in developed economic markets.

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Option Statistics

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Put/Call ratio suggests the following three scenarios:

• The Put/Call ratio between 1.2943 and 0.7595 for the next four upcoming expiries suggests that the overall option traders’ position is inclined towards Puts.
• Lower earnings and guidance could trigger a gradual sell-off.
• Better-than-expected earnings and guidance would trigger a sharp rise.
• The option market is showing a large net positive Gamma at the 105 strike versus a net negative gamma exposure at the 75 strike over the spectrum of May 2025 to January 2027.

Technical Analysis Perspective

• SHOP is forming a large Cup & Handle formation from January 2022 until date.
• The Cup was completed from January 2022 to February 2025.
• Prices are hovering inside a handle formation, trading between two parallel lines.
• The range of the handle is 102 – 60 this month.
• A strong sustained break above 102 post earnings would trigger the formation targeting 130, 139 with more room to 155.
• A rejection of 102 obstacles would suggest a longer-range trade between 102 – 90 with more downside risk to 69.
• The earnings are a good catalyst for the formation to trigger which is dependent on Q2 2025 guidance.

Monthly Candlestick Chart

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SHOP Seasonality Chart:

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• SHOP closes 10.1 % higher in May 64% of the time since 2015.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters (NYSE:), Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training. Follow us on “X” formerly

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“@twtlearning.”

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#

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#Earnings #Impact #Tariff #Merchants #Lay #Future #Price #Action

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