Likelihood of Major Asteroid Hitting Earth Just Got Upgraded Again

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Likelihood of Major Asteroid Hitting Earth Just Got Upgraded Again

A new asteroid that was discovered hurtling towards Earth in December has the highest odds of a collision to date, according to new data from NASA.

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reported on Monday that asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 2.6 percent, or about a 1-in-38 chance of hitting the Earth in 2032. When the asteroid was first spotted it had a 1-in-83 odds of a collision, but has been steadily increasing as astronomers learn more about the trajectory. It was since upgraded to 1-in-67, then to 1-in-53, and 1-in-43, before being given 1-in-38 odds.

The European Space Agency has placed the odds slightly lower, with the current projection at a 2.41 percent chance of collision.

According to a

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from earlier this month, the asteroid is estimated to be approximately 130 feet to 300 feet in diameter. If it does collide with the planet, it could release energy equivalent to 7.7 megatonnes of ****, or enough to destroy an entire city.

However, as it’s still pretty early, the odds could still rise or decrease as it comes closer to the Earth.

“As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known,” the federal agency writes. “It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA’s asteroid risk list … It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise.”

Hugh Lewis, a professor of astronautics with the University of Southampton, ***, likewise said “just because it’s gone up in the last week, doesn’t mean that it’s going to continue to do that.”

NASA is planning to observe the asteroid next month with the James Webb Space Telescope to hopefully get a better understanding of the size, and what sort of impact it could make should it pass through the Earth’s atmosphere intact.

“That will help us determine what we need to do about it, because if it’s a stony asteroid, that’s very different from a high proportion of iron-metal asteroid,” Lewis explained, noting that a stony asteroid has a better likelihood of breaking up during impact. “The mass makes a huge difference in terms of the energy and whether or not the atmosphere has an effect on it.”

But it’s crucial for astronomers to learn as much as they can in March, as the asteroid will disappear behind the sun in April. After that, it will be out of range of telescopes until it comes back into view in 2028. In the meantime, astronomers can use previously collected data to possibly help refine the trajectory.

“Any observations we can make between now and when it’s out of view will obviously help us to refine the orbit and to make better predictions,” Lewis added. “That doesn’t necessarily mean that it will go down before April. It could continue to go up, but still ultimately miss us.”

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