[ECO]US to Reduce Emissions by 61% by 2035: Can It Survive Political Shakeups?

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With one last kick at the can, Biden pledges to reduce emissions by 61% by 2035 as he leaves office.

The United States has

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to 66% below 2005 levels by 2035, marking its latest commitment under the

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. The announcement comes as the Biden administration nears its end, raising questions about the pledge’s durability with president Donald Trump having assumed in January.

This updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) was submitted to the United Nations on Thursday, positioning the U.S. as one of only four countries to submit a 2035 target ahead of the February 2025 deadline. The plan sets the U.S. on a trajectory to reduce emissions to net zero by 2050, aligning with global goals established under the Paris Agreement. The Biden administration also reaffirmed its support for the recent COP28 agreement to transition away from fossil fuels.

However, the pledge faces significant hurdles as the incoming administration has signaled a dramatically different approach to climate policy. Trump, who previously withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement during his first term, has vowed to re-embrace

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, raising concerns about the stability of the Biden-era commitments.

The incoming administration’s stance on energy policies could reverse much of the progress made under Biden. Trump has promised to withdraw from the Paris Agreement again and has signaled strong support for expanding fossil fuel exploration and production. 

His “drill, baby, drill” approach raises alarms among climate advocates who fear weakened regulations, canceled subsidies for clean energy projects, and halted development of renewable infrastructure. These potential reversals could derail U.S. efforts to reduce emissions and undermine global progress on climate action.

Critics also worry that Trump’s focus on deregulation could lead to increased oil and gas exports, further complicating international emissions tracking. With the U.S. already the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, federal policies supporting production could counteract domestic reductions and intensify global dependence on carbon-heavy energy sources.

The U.S. commitment follows the earlier submissions of 2035 targets by the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, and Switzerland. The European Union, however, appears likely to miss the February deadline, with its proposal for a

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delayed. Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra confirmed that the EU’s updated plan would not be presented within the first 100 days of the new administration.

Developing nations also remain hesitant to finalize their targets, citing insufficient financial support for clean energy transitions and climate adaptation. Many left last month’s COP29 summit in Baku disappointed, underscoring the persistent divide between wealthy nations and the global south.

In its updated NDC, the U.S. emphasized progress toward previous goals, surpassing its 2020 target of a 17% emissions reduction. The administration remains confident in meeting its 2030 target of a 50%–52% reduction, citing landmark legislation like the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act.

These measures include billions of dollars in incentives for clean energy technologies and infrastructure. They also prompted the European Union to adopt its

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to maintain competitiveness amid China’s growing dominance in the clean energy sector.

Despite these advancements, the U.S. remains the world’s largest oil and gas producer, with output continuing to climb under Biden’s tenure. Emissions accounting under the Paris Agreement focuses solely on domestic consumption rather than exported fuels, allowing production increases to persist without direct penalties.

Efforts to reduce emissions by 61% by 2035 are projected to spur significant economic shifts. Investments in clean energy could create hundreds of thousands of jobs in renewable energy sectors like solar, wind, and battery storage. However, fossil fuel-dependent industries may face job losses and economic slowdowns, particularly in states heavily reliant on coal and oil production.

Studies suggest that transitioning to a clean energy economy could also reduce health costs linked to air pollution and climate-related disasters, such as hurricanes and wildfires. Still, balancing these benefits against potential short-term economic disruptions remains a challenge for policymakers.

Recognizing the potential for policy reversals under Trump, a coalition of 24 state governors known as the United States Climate Alliance announced a complementary target to reduce emissions by 60% by 2035. The group, representing 55% of the U.S. population and 60% of its economic output, aims to sustain climate progress regardless of federal policy shifts.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul, co-chair of the alliance, stated, “President Biden’s bold leadership is keeping us on a path to achieve a clean energy economy, and together, the country’s climate-leading governors will carry the torch forward.” New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the clear benefits of sustained climate action.

Linda Kalcher, director of Strategic Perspectives in Brussels, offered a more positive view, calling the NDC a “decent farewell gift” from Biden. Kalcher highlighted state-level initiatives pushing clean energy goals, adding that it remains to be seen whether they can offset federal policies promoting fossil fuel expansion.

The Biden administration’s commitment underscores the stark divide in U.S. climate policy as Trump prepares to reassume office. With his campaign rhetoric favoring increased oil and gas development, questions linger about whether the U.S. can maintain momentum toward its emissions targets.

As the world’s second-largest emitter, the U.S. reduces emissions through ambitious goals, but whether it stays on course or reverses direction under new leadership will significantly influence the broader fight against climate change.

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