Gas shortage: AEMO predicts WA will need new supply next decade

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Gas shortage: AEMO predicts WA will need new supply next decade

Western Australia will have enough gas to keep the economy running until 2027 but a big long-term shortage is still looming.

The *********** Energy Market Operator is forecasting WA will produce enough gas to cover local consumption for the next three years, a significant improvement on the

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just 12 months ago.

Big shortfalls beyond 2030 remain in the projections and about 14 per cent of local demand will be unmet by 2034.

That’s better than previously expected — yet still a significant shortage.

It follows heated debate about domestic gas supply rules this year amid a parliamentary inquiry.

Woodside committed an extra 50 terajoules per day for local users, while the State Government watered down a 2020 ban on onshore producers exporting gas.

Extra supply from Woodside, Chevron and Strike Energy have helped ease the shortage in the next few years.

The closures of of energy-intensive manufacturing at Alcoa’s Kwinana refinery and BHP Nickel West have driven demand lower and also helped reduce looming deficits.

“We’re forecasting gas supply to exceed demand until 2027, due to increased supply alongside a temporary reduction in mining and industrial consumption,” AEMO interim WA executive general manager Nicola Falcon said.

The massive deficits forecast into the 2030s have narrowed but the State is still expected to be short of gas as older fields run out of fuel.

Closures of coal power stations will also lead to increased gas demand to help back up new renewable and battery projects.

“Over time, as more renewable generation is connected and electrification continues, gas powered generation isexpected to play a more seasonal role,” Ms Falcon said.

“(That means) higher use during periods of low wind and sunshine and high demand in winter, or when supporting peak demand in summer.”

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