Geopolitical uncertainty intensifies over the weekend

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Geopolitical uncertainty intensifies over the weekend

TOPSHOT – This aerial picture shows a bullet-riddled portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad adorning Hama’s municipality building after it was defaced following the capture of the city by anti government fighters, on December 6, 2024. 

Omar Haj Kadour | Afp | Getty Images

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

Syria’s Assad regime collapses after 50 years Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has reportedly fled to Russia after a rebel advance over the weekend reached the capital city of Damascus, putting an end to 50 years of the Assad’s family rule over Syria. Russian state news agencies, Tass and RIA, cited an unidentified Kremlin source on Assad and his family being given asylum in the country. 

South Korea’s president survives impeachment voteSouth Korean president Yoon Seok Yeol has survived an impeachment vote over the weekend after his ruling People’s Power Party boycotted the vote. The impeachment motion saw all 192 opposition lawmakers in favour of impeaching the president, but failed to clear the bar of 200 votes needed after only three PPP members voted for the motion. 

Court upholds law ordering TikTok ***** in U.S.A federal 

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upheld a law requiring China-based 

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to sell social media app TikTok next month or face an effective ban in the U.S. The court in an unanimous ruling rejected TikTok’s argument that the law is unconstitutional and violates the First Amendment rights of the 170 million Americans who use the app. TikTok said that it will ask the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn the appeals court decision.

S&P and Nasdaq reach new records 

On Friday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose to fresh records after November jobs data fueled hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut rates after its meeting ends on Dec. 18 stateside. The S&P climbed 0.25% to 6,090.27, while the Nasdaq advanced 0.81% to 19,859.77. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.28%, to close at 44,642.52.

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******** EV markets to benefit in 2025 Traditional foreign automakers were shown the exit on China’s car market in 2024, which means that 2025 looks to be the year that a few local electric car companies can solidify their leadership in the world’s second largest economy. 

The bottom line

A quote commonly attributed to Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin goes, “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen.”

While it is difficult, absurd even, to suggest that nothing has happened in the past few decades, a lot has certainly happened in the last two weeks. 

Over the weekend, Syria’s president Bashar Al-Assad reportedly fled to Russia, ending 50 years of the Assad’s family rule, South Korea’s president survived an impeachment vote after declaring the first instance of martial law in over 40 years, and last week, France’s government collapsed after a no-confidence vote, the first time that has happened in France in over 60 years. 

Could the political turmoil could cast a shadow over the typical year-end rally for markets, where markets usually climb? 

To be honest, it is difficult to say. On one hand, the effects of these political developments are not yet fully known and will cause uncertainty, but on the other hand, U.S. economic data seems to be supporting the case for a rise in markets. 

Traders expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to be the market’s Santa Claus this year. According to the

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, there is an 85% chance that the Fed will enact a 25 basis points cut next week, which is likely to send markets higher.  

However, many other clouds also loom over the horizon heading into 2025, not least of all, the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump. In short, 2024 may be coming to an end, but it seems determined to go out swinging in the last three weeks. 

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#Geopolitical #uncertainty #intensifies #weekend

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