NFL Week 14 roundtable: Should Pittsburgh be on upset alert? Time for Michael Penix Jr.?

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NFL Week 14 roundtable: Should Pittsburgh be on upset alert? Time for Michael Penix Jr.?

The Jameis Winston experience reached heights never seen before with the Cleveland Browns’ loss to the Denver Broncos on Monday night. The Browns aren’t your typical 3-9 team, which the Pittsburgh Steelers already know well.

Should the first-place Steelers be on upset alert again in Week 14? Our writers Mike Sando, Zak Keefer and Jeff Howe address the question in The Athletic’s roundtable previewing Week 14’s remaining slate.

Our writers also ponder if it’s too late in the season for a team amid a playoff push to throw a rookie quarterback in the fire. It’s the talk in Atlanta as the Falcons and Kirk Cousins (at Vikings) continue to fall with the rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Raiders) rising.

Read more below for what else is on our writers’ minds this week.

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As Monday night showed, you never know what you’ll get out of the Jameis Winston experience. Should Pittsburgh be on upset alert vs. the Browns on Sunday?

Keefer: Absolutely. For starters, they lost to this same Browns team in Week 12, and it’s no secret across the league that Cleveland’s offense is much more potent with Winston under center than Deshaun Watson. Maybe Winston’s prayer to rid himself of the pick-sixes will work, because without those killer mistakes, he’s unlocked something in the Browns’ passing game. For starters, look at what Jerry Jeudy’s doing (he’s eighth in the league in EPA per reception). Also, with Winston at QB, the Browns have had their three most productive days on offense this season.

Howe: The Steelers would need to have short-term amnesia if they aren’t on upset alert because the Browns beat them two weeks ago in one of the funnest games of the season. The Browns are playing much better on offense with Winston, similar to the way the move to Joe Flacco sparked the offense in 2023. You can tell the Browns are playing hard for their coach and quarterback, and they’d love nothing more than to sweep their rivals during an otherwise lost season. The Browns may not be able to predict what they’ll get out of Winston each game, but the results were far more predictable and a whole lot less successful earlier this season when they could foresee the results.

Sando: Yes, because it’s a divisional game and Pittsburgh already lost to the Browns recently. The Mike Tomlin-era Steelers are 19-4 against the Browns when Cleveland had a losing record entering the game. The record is 4-2 since 2019 and 0-1 this season.

The Jaguars meet the Titans without Trevor Lawrence, who, while sliding, suffered a concussion on a hit by Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair last week. There has been some debate over whether Lawrence started his slide too late. Is there any merit to that notion? Could you envision the league ever addressing “fake” QB slides in the future?

Keefer: I’m not buying that. Lawrence started to slide when he saw the defender approaching, giving himself up on the play. Al-Shaair leveled the quarterback with a forearm to the upper part of Lawrence’s shoulder pad and his neck. It was late. It was dirty. It was unnecessary. And it’s not the first time this season Shaair’s been criticized for a late hit on a QB. I do think, if quarterbacks start faking slides to keep the play alive, the league will step in. But this was not that.

Howe: Lawrence slid later than critics may have liked in order to maximize his opportunity to get a first down, but that doesn’t come with an open invitation for a defender to launch himself with a leading elbow to the head area. Later slides generally come with some level of contact from the defense, and the officials tend to do a decent job of determining which of those hits are incidental and which others rise to the level of a penalty. If quarterbacks start a tendency of doing the fake slide,

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, the league should absolutely put an end to it. The closest thing we’ve seen to that, at least in terms of any semblance of regularity, would be the QBs who take advantage of a few extra yards near the boundary, but I’m not sure how that could be objectively enforced.

Sando: The first coach I spoke with regarding the Lawrence hit pointed out right away that he thought Lawrence slid late. There is merit to the notion. Texans GM Nick Caserio

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does raise the possibility some in the NFL could push for clarifications/changes. But because the league would rather have critics complaining about too many protections for quarterbacks than not enough protections for them, I think it’ll take examples more blatant than the one involving Lawrence for the league to address “fake” slides.

The Bears and 49ers meet on Sunday. Who might be the best fit as the next Bears head coach? What should be at the top of the 49ers’ offseason to-do list, should they miss the playoffs?

Keefer: Can they get Ben Johnson? If Kevin Warren is right — and this is the best job of the NFL’s impending hiring cycle — then this franchise needs to do everything it can to lure the Lions’ offensive coordinator down to Chicago. Nothing is more paramount than Caleb Williams’ development, and the rookie’s shown enough promise this season, despite the recent chaos surrounding the organization, that with the right coach he can become a star in this league. The old Chicago regimes would get this wrong. Maybe this year they actually get it right.

As for the 49ers, despite what some pundits are saying, I don’t think a full-on rebuild is necessary. There’s too much talent. Brock Purdy is young. Christian McCaffrey will be back next season. This year was plagued by a ridiculous stream of injuries, and probably the lingering effects of last year’s gutting Super Bowl loss. The roster needs some tweaks, and needs some youth, but there are too many sound building blocks to move on from.

Howe: They should prioritize offensive consistency for Williams, so there should be apprehension over a defensive-minded coach who could lose his offensive coordinator every couple years. Thomas Brown will deserve a serious look if the Bears play better down the stretch, and the Bears should also bring in Ben Johnson, Zac Robinson and Liam Coen for interviews. With the Niners, it’s been a few years running now where rival executives marvel at the top-end talent but remain wary over their depth, which is why they run into these issues when their stars go down. They aren’t giving out bad contracts to their stars, but there’s an injury risk involved that’s been coming to a head. Same with the Trey Lance pick. Sure, they ultimately figured it out at quarterback, but they’d be in a much better spot right now if they hit on the trio of first-round picks that it cost to draft Lance. This would be a logical time to move on from veterans who are on the back nine and reinforce depth through the draft.

GO DEEPER

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Sando: How fun would it be if the Bears made a run at Deion Sanders? I’m thinking outside the box with an eye toward the other coaches in this division. Dan Campbell is one of a kind, an outsized personality. Kevin O’Connell and Matt LaFleur are more conventional and both are flourishing. Coach Prime would instantly make the Bears relevant. And while most high-profile coaches would want more personnel/organizational control than Chicago appears willing to grant, Sanders might not. He could bring in some veteran NFL coaches and shake up the division. Is anyone with me?

Would Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders be a fit for the Chicago Bears? (Ron Chenoy / Imagn Images)

The Bucs (vs. Raiders), Cardinals (vs. Seahawks) and Rams (vs. Bills) are all 6-6 and probably need to win their respective divisions to make the playoffs. Which team should be feeling most confident right now?

Keefer: I like Tampa Bay’s chances in the NFC South simply because the Falcons feel like frauds. Atlanta’s been so wildly inconsistent this season, and Kirk Cousins is amid one of the worst slumps of his career. The Bucs, meanwhile, won’t see a team with a winning record the rest of the regular season.

Howe: If the Bucs take care of business, they should win four of their last five games and take the NFC South. Their defensive inconsistencies are concerning because it’s tough to rip off a winning streak like that, but their schedule is the most accommodating compared to the Seahawks and Cardinals. The NFC West is completely unpredictable and has been pretty much all season. The only thing I feel confident about is the Niners won’t win the division, so you might as well print their championship T-shirts now.

Sando: Tampa Bay is the team for me as well. It’s amazing to me the Bucs lost twice to the Falcons, but they did, and that’s why they’re in this position. The Athletic’s model puts the Bucs’ playoff chances at 54 percent, compared to 35 percent for Arizona and 26 percent for the Rams. That feels about right to me.

Our writers trust Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to end up on top in the NFC South with the Atlanta Falcons struggling. (Elsa / Getty Images)

The Falcons are on the road vs. the Vikings. Throwing a rookie QB into the fire against a Brian Flores defense seems ill-advised. But should the Falcons consider starting Michael Penix Jr. over Kirk Cousins at some point this season if things get worse?

Keefer: Yes. If Cousins continues to struggle — his third interception Sunday against the Chargers was one of the worst ones I’ve seen a starter throw all year — the Falcons need to consider giving Penix a chance. The division is still within reach, and if you stick with a starter who’s killing drives and costing the team games, you’re doing a disservice to the locker room. Players know. Players pay attention. They simply want the guy who’ll give them the best chance to win on Sundays. Penix played a lot of games in college; it’s entirely possible he could step in and give this offense a spark.

Howe: I’ve been told Penix has been lighting it up in practice, so a switch would be justified if they felt like making the move. Under no circumstances would I start Penix against the Vikings, but the remaining games against the Raiders, Giants, Commanders and Panthers would be appealing. But this decision wouldn’t be made in a vacuum. If the Falcons go with Penix while they’re still in contention and he plays decently enough, I don’t see how they could keep Cousins in 2025. And it’s fair to believe Cousins will be better next season once he’s fully healed from the torn Achilles. But if the Falcons switch to Penix once they’re out of contention and he plays OK, even if it’s only for the regular-season finale, Cousins won’t have any room for error with the fan base in 2025. The safer play is to stick with Cousins. But if the Falcons believe moving to Penix would spark the locker room and accelerate his chances to start in Week 1 next season, such an aggressive move would be the correct play.

Sando: The Falcons should play Penix for the final four games if Cousins plays poorly and/or the team loses at Minnesota. They’ll have an extra day to get Penix ready because they follow their game at Minnesota with a Monday night visit to Las Vegas in Week 15. Atlanta then finishes with the Giants, Commanders and Panthers. Getting some experience for Penix in the absence of great expectations seems like a good idea. Getting Cousins to the offseason without another injury also has value.

(Photo: Brooke Sutton / Getty Images)

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