Republicans just won a permanent Senate majority

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Republicans just won a permanent Senate majority

Kamala Harris’s defeat was damaging to the left. But her loss overshadows the true scope of the damage wrought on the Democratic Party: the permanent loss of the Senate.

Democrats have lost the Senate before, but this loss is

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. This time, it may well be for good. For the first time in a century, there is not one Democratic senator from a reliably red state.

We have entered an era of one-party rule — at least where the Senate is concerned.

Today, the Senate map mirrors the national electoral divide. Democratic senators in blue states, Republican senators in red states, and swing states up for grabs. That’s grim news for Democrats. Simply put, there are more red states than blue states.

For decades, Democrats relied on popular Democratic senators in deep-red states — for example, Tom Daschle in South Dakota (lost in 2004), Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas (lost in 2010), Mary Landrieu in Louisiana (lost in 2014), Claire McCaskill in Missouri (lost in 2018), and Jon Tester in Montana (lost in 2024). In recent years, these red-state Democrats were critical to holding the Democratic majority.

The final nationalization of the Senate in 2024 with the ousting of Tester and Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and the retirement of Joe Manchin in West Virginia, shifts the path to a Democratic Senate majority entirely to blue and purple states. This makes the Democrats’ task nearly impossible.

Republicans, in contrast, can compete in many more states. Even if Democrats sweep every swing state contest (and oust Susan Collins in Maine), they can win at most 52 seats in the Senate. That includes both seats in North Carolina. If Republicans were to win all the Senate seats in all of those same swing states, they would control 62 seats.

Considering that only a third of swing state seats will ever be up for election any given cycle, the odds of Democrats winning all 14 races are almost a statistical impossibility. Susan Collins’s hold on blue Maine makes the task even tougher.

There is a historical analog to this emerging phenomenon: the Permanent Democratic Congress. 

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. Only recently have we entered an era of congressional oscillation between parties, an era that came to an end this November.

This new permanent Republican Senate has three profound consequences for the Democratic Party and the institution of the Senate.

First, any incoming Democratic president will enter the White House with a severe handicap, limiting the enactment of broad campaign promises. Instead of enjoying a mandate reflected by majorities in Congress, the far likelier scenario is a Democratic president immediately vying against a confident and combative Republican Senate. Any partisan campaign promise — from a public option to progressive tax reform — is dead on arrival. The same hostility President Obama faced after losing the Senate in 2014 will be the presumptive landscape.

The implications for effective governance are severe: structural reforms would be almost unattainable, further entrenching the perception of dysfunction in Washington. For the Democratic Party, the consequences are graver: this hyper-gridlock would be inextricably linked to Democratic presidencies, deepening voter disillusionment during their time in power.

Republicans no longer have any incentive to confirm Democratic judicial nominees, knowing a Republican-controlled Senate can outwait a Democratic president.

The precedent for this is very recent:

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. Republicans opted

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, betting on the chance to confirm a Republican nominee instead. Now, it’s more than a gamble; it’s a near certainty. With the presidency likely to continue teetering between the parties, Republicans only need to hold out until the next Republican presidency. As long as the current political geography remains, there is no risk of a new Democratic president backed by a Democratic Senate to swiftly fill judicial vacancies.

Under this new norm, Republicans can mold the judiciary in their ideological image, without fear that Democrats will rebalance it. If a vacancy does open on the Supreme Court during a Democratic presidency, Republicans wouldn’t need to rush to fill it: they would maintain a comfortable conservative majority even with the vacancy, albeit 5-3 instead of 6-3. If Republicans continue this stonewalling during Democratic presidencies, with their new permanent hold on the Senate, the Supreme Court’s conservative 6-3 majority may become 7-2, 8-1, and eventually 9-0.

The filibuster derives its power from the majority party’s recognition that someday soon, they will likely find themselves in the *********. When that day comes, the filibuster will be a valuable asset ensuring the *********’s perspective is heard.

But the filibuster’s threat and power hinge on the shared belief that each party will eventually rotate in and out of the majority. In the new age ushered in by the 2024 elections, Republicans have little reason to believe Democrats will take the Senate back anytime soon.

Without any realistic fear of losing their majority, Republicans have no further use for the filibuster. Rather than serving as a safeguard, it now only stands in their way. It no longer provides commensurate prospective protection. Both parties have already weakened the filibuster through the

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when it suited their needs and the benefits outweighed the backlash.

Given this and President-elect Trump’s firm grip on the GOP and his eagerness to push through his agenda, the filibuster’s days are numbered.

Ilani Nurick is pursuing a juris doctorate at Yale Law School.

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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