College Football Playoff at-large contenders: Cases for, against and fatal flaws

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College Football Playoff at-large contenders: Cases for, against and fatal flaws

As the season approaches its final two weeks, jostling for at-large bids continues for teams in the upper echelon of College Football Playoff competition.

At this point, there are teams with CFP hopes both as a conference champion and as an at-large. There are others, such as Big 12 contenders BYU and Colorado, which need to win their conference to reach the Playoff. The same scenario exists for Group of 5 squads Boise State and Tulane.

For the teams strictly in at-large contention, what are the cases for their inclusion and what are the flaws that could keep them from the 12-team tournament? Below we examine 16 teams with at-large hopes — not just the 16 highest-ranked teams — and examine why they are worthy of at-large consideration while breaking down their flaws.

No. 1 Oregon (11-0)

By the numbers – Sagarin **** (strength of schedule): 52; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 4-0; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 6-0; Points for: 33.9; Points against: 15.7.

Case for: The Ducks are the nation’s only unbeaten team, have ranked wins against Ohio State, Boise State and Illinois and compete in a coast-to-coast conference. At this stage, Oregon deserves the No. 1 ranking without debate.

Fatal flaw: This is more of a concern moving forward. Had Ohio State quarterback Will Howard slid a second earlier and called a timeout against Oregon, the Buckeyes might have kicked a game-winning field goal in Eugene. The teams are likely to meet in Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship. Should Oregon fall, the Ducks could face Boise State again in the CFP, and they won that game on a last-second field goal. Rematches against motivated opponents could pose challenges.

No. 2 Ohio State (10-1)

By the numbers – Sagarin ****: 58; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 5-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 5-0; Points for: 37.8; Points against: 10.7.

Case for: The Buckeyes have the talent at every position to compete with any team in the country. They boast two NFL-caliber running backs and the nation’s top defense. Howard has completed 80 percent of his passes in six different games, and receivers Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are an electrifying trio. On a neutral field, this team could win it all.

Fatal flaw: There are times the Buckeyes look ordinary, like in a 21-17 home win against Nebraska. Injuries to Ohio State’s top two offensive linemen could have consequences against a physical, athletic front. Howard has competed at a high level this year, but can he make the game-winning plays in a close contest against similar talent?

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No. 3 Texas (10-1)

By the numbers – Sagarin ****: 39; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 7-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 3-0; Points for: 37.8; Points against: 12.1.

Case for: Texas can match up with anyone player-for-player. The Longhorns have the SEC’s top scoring defense and rank second nationally in total defense. They have an experienced quarterback in Quinn Ewers, elite players at every position and showed their grit by losing only one game so far in their first SEC season.

Fatal flaw: The Longhorns don’t own a victory over a current Top 25 team. They avoided Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee and South Carolina and they lost decisively to Georgia. That doesn’t take away their intent; the Longhorns traveled to defending national champion Michigan and won 31-19. But questions persist about how Texas will perform against fellow elite programs because they haven’t faced more than one entering this week’s showdown against Texas A&M.

By the numbers – Sagarin ****: 37; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 6-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 4-0; Points for: 32.4; Points against: 14.6.

Case for: The Nittany Lions have handled their business in fine fashion. They survived at tough road venues like USC, Minnesota, Wisconsin and West Virginia with big plays in critical moments. Penn State has an underrated quarterback in Drew Allar, the nation’s best tight end in Tyler Warren and a top-five NFL Draft pick in edge rusher Abdul Carter. The Nittany Lions can adapt to different styles and weather won’t be a factor.

Fatal flaw: There are two big questions facing Penn State. One, can their wide receivers gain enough separation against an equally talented opponent? Two, can coach James Franklin string together multiple wins against top-10 competition? In Franklin’s 11 years, the Nittany Lions are 3-17 against top-10 opponents with only one victory in the last eight seasons.

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By the numbers – Sagarin ****: 65; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 6-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 4-0; Points for: 39.0; Points against: 11.6.

Case for: Few, if any, teams have looked more impressive than Notre Dame in the last two months. Only once have the Irish allowed more than 16 points in a game, and they’ve scored at least 31 points in each of their last seven games. Quarterback Riley Leonard has become an elite playmaker and Notre Dame’s line of scrimmage play can hang with any opponent.

Fatal flaw: The Irish have ranked wins against Texas A&M and Army away from home, but their overall schedule was light. Notre Dame’s 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois has served as a lightning rod for criticism. For the Irish the scenario is simple: beat USC and pick up a home CFP game. Lose to the Trojans and probably fall from CFP consideration.

No. 6 Miami (10-1)

By the numbers – Sagarin ****: 61; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 5-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 4-0; Points for: 44.7; Points against: 22.3.

Case for: The Hurricanes average more points than any team in CFP contention. With quarterback Cam Ward, Miami can fill it up. In five different games, the Hurricanes have scored at least 50 points.

Fatal flaw: No at-large contender allows more points per game than Miami at 22.3. The Hurricanes frequently have been involved in one-score games against unranked opponents and have needed late rallies to win. Miami has yet to play a Top 25 team, let alone beat one.

Miami will finish the regular season on the road against Syracuse on Saturday. (Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)

By the numbers – Sagarin ****: 4; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 4-2; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 4-0; Points for: 33.2; Points against: 14.6.

Case for: Nobody has more quality wins than Georgia, which beat CFP contenders Clemson, Texas and Tennessee. When operating at a high level, the Bulldogs look like an eventual champion. They have a veteran quarterback and talent that jumps off the roster. Despite a loss at Alabama, their furious comeback attempt will scare any future opponent.

Fatal flaw: Which version of Carson Beck will take the field in the CFP? He’s thrown 12 interceptions and three picks in three different games, including in a loss to Alabama and a win against Texas. In a game between equally matched opponents, how Beck performs could enhance – or harm – Georgia’s performance.

No. 8 Tennessee (9-2)

By the numbers – Sagarin ****: 57; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 3-2; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 5-0; Points for: 37.4; Points against: 13.1.

Case for: The Vols can play any style of football and compete. They rank second in the SEC in both points scored and points allowed. Running back Dylan Sampson is one of the nation’s three best running backs and sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava displays some dynamic qualities.

Fatal flaw: Outside of beating Alabama, the Vols have an ordinary resume. None of their nonconference opponents are bowl eligible, and they lost to 6-5 Arkansas at home. It’s why Tennessee hovered outside the CFP before Ole Miss and Alabama suffered losses last weekend.

No. 9 SMU (10-1)

By the numbers – Sagarin ****: 59; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 5-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 4-0; Points for: 39.3; Points against: 21.0.

Case for: SMU’s ACC debut has been flawless with nary a loss despite a reduced revenue share. The Mustangs are one victory shy of running the table and advancing to the ACC title game. All-everything running back Brashard Smith was critical in wins against Duke and Pittsburgh.

Fatal flaw: An early loss to BYU lingers but not in the way most people expected back in September. With SEC teams slipping after their third loss, heightened scrutiny awaits SMU this weekend against Cal and in a potential ACC title game. It’s worth watching SMU’s defense, which has allowed at least 25 points to every bowl-eligible opponent since its BYU loss.

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By the numbers – Sagarin ****: 68; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 3-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 6-0; Points for: 41.3; Points against: 16.0.

Case for: The eye test and statistics favor Indiana. The Hoosiers have an electrifying offense led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke and five receivers with at least 24 catches, 280 yards and three touchdowns. Indiana also plays high-level defense, which is unusual for a portal-based team.

Fatal flaw: As of today, Indiana has beaten three FBS teams with winning records but that could fall to zero by Saturday. Its strength of schedule is by far the lowest of any power conference team vying for an at-large bid. In the Hoosiers’ only game against a ranked opponent, they lost 38-15 to Ohio State.

No. 12 Clemson (9-2)

By the numbers – Sagarin ****: 62; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 1-2; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 7-0; Points for: 37.6; Points against: 22.0.

Case for: In all but one of its victories, Clemson won by double figures. It has a potent offense guided by quarterback Cade Klubnik, who has 29 touchdowns and four interceptions. The Tigers are third in the ACC in both scoring offense and scoring defense.

Fatal flaw: Clemson has the most pedestrian resume of any potential at-large squad. It has played just three FBS teams with winning records and won just once, and that was last week against 7-4 Pittsburgh. The Tigers give up nearly 23 points a game, the second-most of any team in the CFP Top 25.

No. 13 Alabama (8-3)

By the numbers – Sagarin ****: 7; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 6-3; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 1-0; Points for: 36.2; Points against: 17.5.

Case for: In the first half against Georgia or throughout its victories against LSU and Missouri, Alabama looked like not only a CFP team but a title contender. Nine of its 11 FBS opponents have winning records, including seven of eight SEC opponents.

Fatal flaw: It really starts and ends with the win-loss record. Losing three games would end CFP hopes for nearly every other program save for Alabama. The Tide dropped games to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, both of which are 6-5. It’s not impossible to build a case for Alabama’s inclusion, but it involves losses by multiple teams this weekend rather than for the Tide to simply beat Auburn.

No. 14 Ole Miss (8-3)

By the numbers – Sagarin ****: 31; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 5-2; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 2-1; Points for: 38.5; Points against: 13.9.

Case for: Just watch the Rebels in action. It’s a potent offense led by Jaxson Dart and Tre Harris, capable of putting up points on everyone. Ole Miss crushed Georgia 28-10 and scored 63 points on Arkansas, which held Tennessee to 14. The defense has NFL-caliber performers, especially along the line.

Fatal flaw: Not only do Mississippi’s three losses make it difficult to climb into the CFP, but it’s also who beat the Rebels. None of the three teams are ranked by the committee with LSU (7-4) posting the best record. Losing at home to Kentucky (4-7) is probably the ***** shot.

Ole Miss’ loss to Florida last week dropped the Rebels’ Playoff chances to 9 percent, per The Athletic’s model. (Matt Pendleton / Imagn Images)

No. 15 South Carolina (8-3)

By the numbers – Sagarin ****: 18; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 4-3; Record vs. non-winning FBS teams: 3-0; Points for: 32.9; Points against: 18.2.

Case for: Of the 8-3 teams hovering in the SEC’s second tier, the Gamecocks won the important head-to-head battles against Texas A&M and Missouri. South Carolina has one of college football’s most dominant defensive lines with 39 sacks. Its offensive efficiency is impressive.

Fatal flaw: This is the season of “almosts” for South Carolina. Two touchdowns were called back against LSU because of penalties and a ******* two-point conversion cost the Gamecocks an overtime opportunity against Alabama. Barring a chaotic scenario rivaling 2007, South Carolina “almost” will get into the CFP.

By the numbers – Sagarin ****: 33; Record vs. winning teams: 3-1; Record vs. non-winning teams: 6-1; Points for: 30.5; Points against: 22.8.

Case for: Arizona State has posted its two most impressive wins in the last two weeks, beating Kansas State 24-14 on the road before toppling BYU 28-23 at home. The Sun Devils, who are led by versatile running back Cam Skattebo, have churned out five wins by a touchdown or less.

Fatal flaw: The Sun Devils have a 7.7-point differential, which is by far the lowest of any potential at-large team. Their losses came against 7-4 Texas Tech and 5-6 Cincinnati, and they’ve played only four teams with winning records.

By the numbers – Sagarin ****: 40; Record vs. winning teams: 4-1; Record vs. non-winning teams: 4-1; Points for: 31.4; Points against: 19.5.

Case for: The Cyclones are resilient, as demonstrated by three come-from-behind victories in the closing seconds. Iowa State has the Big 12’s best pass defense, which ranks third overall. Their receiving combination of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel has compiled nearly 2,000 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Fatal flaw: Iowa State steadily climbed the rankings until losing two straight to Texas Tech and Kansas (5-6). The Cyclones don’t own any Top 25 wins, and their depleted defense has given up more than 230 rushing yards in three of their last five games.

(Top photo: Johnnie Izquierdo / Getty Images))

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