2025 NFL Draft: Giants’ next 3 games will go a long way in determining draft spot

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2025 NFL Draft: Giants’ next 3 games will go a long way in determining draft spot

Well, was it worth it, New York Giants fans? “DeVito mania” added some much-needed fun to a disastrous 2023 season, but with the benefit of hindsight, it’s pretty easy to see the consequences of that fun were disastrous, too. There’s no way around it: Tommy DeVito’s three-game winning streak last year cost the team a top-three pick and the chance to add one of the top three quarterbacks selected in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Instead, the Giants had to settle for the sixth pick — after failing to trade up for Drake Maye — while bypassing the opportunity to draft Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix. Re-litigating that decision is a story for another time, but as DeVito prepares to take the reins for the Giants again, it’s worth remembering what happened last year when the QB led the Giants to some costly victories.

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Will he do it again this year? We’ll find out soon, but if he does, it could prove to be even more costly. This 2025 crop of draft-eligible quarterbacks isn’t believed to be nearly as strong as last year, and it’s possible only one or two emerge as players worthy of being selected in the first round.

For the QB-desperate Giants, that means draft positioning is paramount.

On that front, there’s some good news: They don’t face an easy upcoming slate. Of their seven remaining games, our NFL Projection Model has them favored in just one (against Dallas on Thanksgiving).

Giants 2024 remaining schedule

Week	Date	Opponent	Win probability
12	Sunday		41%
13	Nov. 24		51%
14	Dec. 8		45%
15	Dec. 15		21%
16	Dec. 22		25%
17	TBD		45%
18	TBD		23%

It should go without saying no one should expect the Giants to lose on purpose. They’re not going to tank.

“I think we all need to be committed to doing everything we can do to close out the season the right way,” Giants coach Brian Daboll said recently.

Obviously, winning games is what Daboll is supposed to do. It also happens to probably be in his best interest in terms of job security. But the fact ******** that losing out and securing the highest possible draft pick is probably the best outcome for the franchise’s future.

Through that lens, the next three games are the most crucial for the Giants. As you can see in the chart above, they look like the most winnable games on paper for New York, though Week 17 against the Colts also is close to even odds.

First up is the Buccaneers (4-6), who are on a four-game losing streak but are getting healthier off of their bye week. Still, it’s a good time for DeVito to debut, with Tampa Bay’s defense putting up some atrocious stats the last four weeks: It is last in the league in EPA/play (-0.20), per TruMedia. But while DeVito looks set up for some success, Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield could be, too. The Giants defense ranks 31st in opposing passer rating at 104.7.

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Following the Bucs game, the Giants have a short week and then fly to Dallas for a Thanksgiving Day division matchup with the Cowboys (3-7).  These two teams have already played each other, though that Week 4 game (a 20-15 Cowboys win at MetLife Stadium) feels like eons ago. Neither team looks the same as it did in September. In fact, neither team will even start the same quarterback. This one looks like it will be DeVito vs. Cooper Rush as opposed to Daniel Jones vs. Dak Prescott.

The Cowboys’ season went off the rails two weeks after that win over the Giants. They were smacked by the Detroit Lions 47-9 in Week 6, kick-starting a five-game losing streak. During that stretch, they also lost Prescott to a season-ending hamstring injury and have become a disaster. Suffice it to say, this game could get ugly fast.

Last to come in this vital three-game stretch are the Saints (4-7), who are on a two-game winning streak since ******* coach Dennis Allen and promoting Darren Rizzi. New Orleans looks rejuvenated under its interim head coach, but who knows how long that will last?

Listen … when your team stinks, it’s a rough year as an NFL fan. No getting around that.

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and I tried to find a silver lining for every team fighting through a lost season.

Including the New York Giants.

Full show:

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— Robert Mays (@robertmays)

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Current draft positioning

Heading into Week 12, the Giants are slated to pick third, behind the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) and the Tennessee Titans (2-8),

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Though the Giants and Titans have the same record, the Titans would receive the better draft pick because of their inferior strength of schedule figure.

As this season comes to a close, that’s going to be a key number to keep an eye on. Strength of schedule is the first tiebreaker the league uses to determine draft position between teams with the same record. The team with the lower strength of schedule, the aggregate winning percentage of a team’s opponents, receives the better pick. Right now, that’s bad news for the Giants. Their strength of schedule (.520) is one of the highest among teams jockeying for the No. 1 pick.

What that means for Giants fans in terms of rooting interest is easy, though: Root against anyone the Giants have played or will play the rest of the year. The more losses those teams pile up, the lower the Giants’ strength of schedule becomes.

As for the teams Giants fans should root for, well, it’s pretty much any team with four wins or fewer. There are a lot of them right now — 14 to be exact. However, the good news for Giants fans hoping to land the top pick is that the team has a decent shot.

Right now, according to our projection model, the Giants have a 12 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick. That trails only the QB-needy Raiders (35 percent) and puts them ahead of the Browns (11 percent), who may have done the Giants an enormous favor by winning on Thursday night. They entered Thursday with a 28 percent chance of securing the top pick.

Here are the odds for the remaining two- and three-win teams:

• Titans (10 percent)
• Jaguars (10 percent)
• Patriots (8 percent)
• Panthers (7 percent)
• Cowboys (4 percent)
• Jets (3 percent)

As the Giants enter the backstretch of their season, there’s little doubt it’s in their best interest to lose most, if not all, of their remaining games. As a fan, that’s not always easy to root for, but for those needing the motivation, you need only look back to last season at what “DeVito mania” cost the Giants.

(Photo of Tommy DeVito: Kathryn Riley / Getty Images)

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