Why Trump’s tax plans could be ‘complicated’ in 2025, policy experts say

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Why Trump’s tax plans could be ‘complicated’ in 2025, policy experts say

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with House Republicans at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 13, 2024.

Allison Robbert | Via Reuters

Congressional lawmakers will soon debate expiring tax breaks and new promises from President-elect Donald Trump.

Agreeing on cuts and spending, however, could be a challenge.

With a majority in the House of Representatives and Senate, *********** lawmakers can pass sweeping tax legislation through “

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,” which bypasses the Senate filibuster. Republicans could begin the budget reconciliation process during Trump’s first 100 days in office.

But choosing priorities could be difficult, particularly amid the federal budget deficit, policy experts said Tuesday at a Brookings Institution event in Washington.

Legislators will be “representing their districts, not their party,” Howard Gleckman, a senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, said Tuesday in a panel discussion at the Brookings event.

“This is a lot more complicated than just the reds against the blues,” he said.

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‘Political divisions’ could be a barrier

With a slim majority in Congress, *********** lawmakers will soon negotiate with several blocks within their party. Some of these groups have competing priorities.

Enacted by Trump in 2017, the

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Without action from Congress, trillions of tax breaks from the TCJA will expire after 2025. These include lower tax brackets, higher standard deductions, a more generous child tax credit, ******* estate and gift tax exemption and a 20% tax break for pass-through businesses, among other provisions.

The more things you try to bring in, the more potential political divisions we have to navigate.

Molly Reynolds

senior fellow in Governance Studies at Brookings Institution

Tax bill could take longer than expected

Since budget reconciliation involves multiple steps, policy experts say the *********** tax bill could take months.

Plus, Congress has until Dec. 20 to fund the government and avoid a shutdown. A

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could push the deadline to January or March, which could take time from Trump’s tax priorities.

“The idea that they’re going to do this in 100 days, I think, is foolish,” Gleckman said. “My over-under is December 31, 2025, and that might be optimistic.”

However, the bill could get through by Oct. 1, 2025, which closes the federal government’s fiscal year, other policy experts say.

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