NFL QB stock report, Week 12: Patrick Mahomes drops; Caleb Williams deserves your patience

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NFL QB stock report, Week 12: Patrick Mahomes drops; Caleb Williams deserves your patience

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and his Kansas City counterpart, Patrick Mahomes, delivered yet another epic showdown Sunday. That matchup lives up to the hype almost every time, doesn’t it?

Anyway, as a result of the Bills’ 30-21 victory in Orchard Park, Allen overtook Mahomes in our quarterback rankings for the first time since Week 5.

The Athletic’s Week 12 QB rankings

Allen stamped the performance with an exclamation point, pinballing his way down the field with a 26-yard touchdown run on fourth-and-2 that capped the scoring.

JOSH. ALLEN. GREATNESS.

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It’s the way they did it that made the game so jolting. Mahomes, whose numbers are down across the board this season, has been excused due to the injuries and overturned depth chart around him, but Allen has mostly thrived while going through comparable circumstances.

Allen’s leading receiver, throughout the season and again Sunday, was Khalil Shakir, who was third on the depth chart in 2023. Shakir delivered game-highs of eight catches and 70 yards against the Chiefs. Curtis Samuel, an eighth-year wideout on his third team, has been an afterthought for much of the season but made five grabs for 58 yards, including a fourth-quarter TD. Amari Cooper, a trade deadline acquisition who missed the past two games with a wrist injury, tallied two big catches for 55 yards.

And yet, Allen trusted his group and made enough big plays on his own to hang 30 on the Chiefs’ fifth-ranked scoring defense (entering Sunday). That group hadn’t allowed 30 points since Super Bowl LVII against the Philadelphia Eagles. Allen finished 27-of-40 passing for 262 yards, one touchdown and one interception; he also paced the Bills with 55 rushing yards and the pivotal score.

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Mahomes, on the other hand, finished 23-of-33 passing for 196 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. He leaned on rookie receiver Xavier Worthy (four catches, 61 yards, one touchdown), tight end Noah Gray (four catches, 23 yards, two touchdowns) and DeAndre Hopkins (three catches, 29 yards).

Even though Mahomes hasn’t been at his best, his mere presence changed the game. Call it the flashbacks of Mahomes’ late-game heroics in his three playoff victories against the Bills, or simply just common sense, but the Bills bypassed a 44-yard field attempt to take a 26-21 lead with 2:27 remaining — instead going for it on fourth down rather than ceding a game-winning opportunity for Mahomes.

Greatness sparked greatness. This time, Allen delivered while Mahomes watched from the sideline.

Allen opened the season at No. 2 in the rankings but overtook Mahomes in Week 4. The Bills star only stayed up top for two weeks before slumping and dropping to No. 4, but he’s jumped a spot in two of the past three weeks.

Mahomes, meanwhile, wrangled back the No. 1 spot in Weeks 6-7 before Lamar Jackson seized control. Mahomes’ résumé had plenty to do with that, but feedback from coaches and executives validated his standing despite relatively pedestrian statistics. Now at No. 3, this is the lowest Mahomes has ranked in our debut season of the QB stock report.

Allen comes out of the bye with a Week 13 marquee matchup against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football. He’ll visit the Detroit Lions two weeks after that, giving him a couple more opportunities in the spotlight to chip away at Jackson’s lead in the MVP race.

If Allen wins the coveted award for the first time, the knockout touchdown against the Chiefs could be his MVP moment.

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Bear … up?

It didn’t help on the scoreboard, as the Green Bay Packers blocked the Chicaco Bears’ game-winning field-goal attempt, but Caleb Williams looked more comfortable in his first game with Thomas Brown at offensive coordinator. Williams finished 23-of-31 passing for 231 yards and was a play away from delivering his first game-winning drive.

We were pretty thorough last week when going through Williams’ struggles, but we’ve since heard new perspective to put his start into context. 

There’s been plenty of attention devoted to how long Williams has been holding the ball and taking too many sacks, but it’s important to understand the adjustment to the NFL game. One executive, who studied Williams extensively before the draft, pointed out the quarterback wasn’t asked to read safety rotations before the snap under coach Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma and USC.

“That’ll force you to play slow if you’re not used to it,” the executive said. “I think our expectations for these guys is unrealistic, but that’s the nature of the business. Disguising coverages on the back end is all the rage right now in the NFL. That’s asking somebody to go from high school math to advanced calculus without any classes in between. I don’t think it’s an indication of who he is as a player.”

So yeah, Williams has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long because he made so many plays off schedule in college, and it’s more difficult to do that now. But it’s not necessarily because Williams is stubbornly holding the ball too long — although that’s surely been the case on occasion — as it has plenty to do with trying to read more complex defenses in real time, often without the experience of proper fundamentals at prior levels.

Williams needs time and experience to improve in those areas. When he gets to that point, the natural talent should take over.

(Steel) curtain call

Russell Wilson is making the most of his third act.

The 35-year-old has won all four of his starts with the Pittsburgh Steelers and done plenty over the past month to change the narrative after three difficult seasons with the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos. He’s completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 942 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions since taking over for Justin Fields.

Wilson deserves credit for playing well, particularly at this stage of his career after struggling so badly, but it’s also a huge testament to the Steelers. They’re putting him in good situations and not asking him to play beyond his means, which is exactly how it should be for every quarterback.

“They’re revisiting the pre- ‘Let Russ cook’ formula when he was coming up,” an executive said. “They’re running the ball, asking him to play-action pass, win high-leverage situations, and that’s what he’s good at. It starts to fall apart when you make him a high-volume passer. I think it’s sustainable as long as his body holds up. And they’ve got the best defense in the league.”

There’s minimal pressure on Wilson and the Steelers to make this work. He’s making the league minimum because the Broncos are paying the balance of his offset money, so there’s no reason to air it out to justify his contract. And because Wilson has flashed enough with the deep ball, the Steelers’ run game has also benefited.

Of course, the Steelers have also only allowed 19 points per game in his four starts, so Wilson hasn’t had to win any shootouts, sans the 28-27 thriller against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders in Week 10. Realistically, Wilson wasn’t going to go play for play with Jackson on Sunday, but he didn’t need to because the defense was stout.

It’s a sustainable model, though the ceiling for both Wilson and the Steelers may be measured in their final four games against the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals. But for now, Wilson and the Steelers have been perfect for one another.

On a related note …

Jackson had another rough day against a team that his number, completing just 16-of-33 passes for 207 yards, one touchdown and one interception along with 46 rushing yards, as the Ravens dropped a couple games behind the Steelers in the AFC North.

As strong as Jackson has played this season, this type of outing wasn’t unpredictable. The Steelers (5-2), Chiefs (4-1) and Raiders (2-1) are the only teams with a winning record against the two-time MVP.

Jackson has completed 57% of his passes for 1,077 yards, five touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 66.7 passer rating in his career against the Steelers. Against all opponents, that ranks second to last in completion percentage, eighth worst in yards per game (153.9) and last in passer rating. His 44 rushing yards per outing against the Steelers are his fourth fewest against any opponent, and he hasn’t ever rushed for a touchdown against them.

Jackson will get another ****** at them on the national stage in Week 16. That’ll be an important moment for his MVP candidacy, especially four days before a Christmas showcase against the Texans.

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Looking Buff

Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders is playing better than any draft-eligible quarterback, and it’s not even close.

That’s the viewpoint of one trusted evaluator. But from another? Miami’s Cam Ward is likely to wind up being the top QB in the class.

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It’s a relatively down year for QBs, so needy teams are scrambling to formulate their draft plans. Opinions are still varied because it’s early, but there’s also reason to believe teams will remain split on the best prospect in the springtime. Their hope is someone surges like Jayden Daniels a year ago, but the clock is ticking. There could be some major reaches in the draft, and we all know how that tends to pan out.

Like Sanders? Strictly by the game tape, he is playing well enough to be worthy of the No. 1 pick. But teams do want to get plenty of time with Sanders throughout the offseason interview process. They need to gauge just how important football is to him.

In that sense, there’s a bit of a holding pattern. This time two years ago, teams had questions about C.J. Stroud, but he blew them away during the interview process and put concerns to rest.

If Sanders does the same thing, he’s going to put himself in great position to be the first quarterback off the board. If not? Ward might be the pick, even though he’s got a penchant for forcing the ball into high-risk situations.

There could even be quarterback-needy teams in the top 10 that bypass the position altogether because of the uncertainty with the prospects.

Dropped out of the rankings: Joe Flacco (benched), No. 27 last week; Daniel Jones (benched), No. 29 last week.

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(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: ********** Petersen / Getty Images)

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