Does immigration really drive up crime? Not according to the evidence

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Does immigration really drive up ******? Not according to the evidence

Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

Immigration and ****** were once again central themes throughout the US presidential election campaign. The belief that immigration drives up ****** is one of the oldest—and strongest—convictions held by the public, spanning over a century in the US and elsewhere.

This view ******** deeply rooted

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to the contrary, in large part thanks to politicians such as Donald Trump, who are all too keen to amplify this narrative. Since his first presidential campaign announcement in June 2015, Trump has persistently linked immigration to ******.

At that time,

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: “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re sending people that have lots of problems … They’re bringing drugs, they’re bringing ******.” He has since stepped up this rhetoric.

In the final stretch of his recent presidential campaign, he

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such as: “The corrupt media is outraged that I keep talking about migrant ****** and the migrant ****** epidemic. It’s the worst thing that’s happened to our country in 50 years. They’re taking over our small towns and cities.”

According to

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from the Pew Research Center, an ********* thinktank based in Washington DC, immigration and ****** were two of the top three issues for Trump voters in the 2024 election, after the economy.

But what does the evidence really show?

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reveals that studies consistently find no causal link between immigration and increased ****** across a variety of countries. Research from the US, including both

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and more

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studies, as well as research on

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and the

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, demonstrates that immigration does not have a significant impact on ****** rates.

Our paper also provides new evidence from Europe that reinforces this conclusion. After analyzing 15 years of data on immigration inflows and ****** rates across 216 regions in 23 ********* countries, we found no significant link between immigration levels and ****** rates.

Indeed, through the application of robust causal methods, our findings demonstrate that even in areas experiencing substantial immigration, ****** rates do not rise—and may even decline slightly—as immigration increases.

Why perceptions and reality diverge

One of the main reasons why the belief that immigration drives ****** has persisted for so long is the influence of media and political rhetoric. During an election campaign, for example, selective coverage and targeted political messages can fuel public fears.

In Chile, where the

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over a decade in the early 2000s amid a booming economy, public concern about ****** intensified and demand for private security increased. However, research indicates that this surge in immigration had

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, and that intense media coverage played a significant role in shaping and amplifying public misperception.

Such negative messaging, though effective (as exemplified by Trump’s successful campaign), often diverges sharply from reality. Developing policies that focus on the social and economic integration of immigrants, rather than assumptions based on *****, can promote safer and more cohesive communities.

This isn’t to say migrants are not involved in ******. In fact, immigrants are often over-represented in the prison populations of many host countries.

But the fact this doesn’t lead to a rise in ****** rates, according to our analysis, could be because immigrant populations are often too small to alter ****** rates significantly. And it is also possible that some form of offender substitution occurs, where immigrants replace natives in local “****** markets.”

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and get updates on breakthroughs,
innovations, and research that matter—daily or weekly.

One strand of research has explored whether the over-representation of immigrants in ****** statistics may stem from external factors, such as restricted legal status or limited economic opportunities, rather than any inherent ********* propensity.

Our review highlights how legal work permits and stable employment are directly linked to reductions in ****** rates. For example, in cases where certain Eastern ********* immigrants to other countries in Europe were granted legal work permits, their ****** rates

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.

This is consistent with separate research that finds that

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can lead to significant reductions in ********* activity, and that policies expanding

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can help reduce ****** rates among immigrant populations.

In fact,

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from March 2024 that examined long-term trends in the US revealed that immigrants today are much less likely to be imprisoned, compared with the 1960s. The same study attributes this reduction in ****** to better work opportunities and more stable family structures among male immigrants. These insights provide a pathway toward policies that value integration over exclusion.

Expanding access to legal work, particularly for asylum seekers and other vulnerable groups, could foster safer communities. But restrictive policies focused on criminalizing undocumented immigrants or barring them from employment may, paradoxically, increase ******.

As the US considers its approach to immigration, prioritizing causal evidence over *****-driven narratives could pave the way for policies that benefit both immigrants and the communities they join. By fostering economic participation and addressing public misperceptions, we can build fairer, safer societies for all.

Provided by
The Conversation

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Citation:
Does immigration really drive up ******? Not according to the evidence (2024, November 18)
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