What we learned about the CFP in Week 12: Georgia’s still alive, an SEC-Big Ten debate looms

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What we learned about the CFP in Week 12: Georgia’s still alive, an SEC-Big Ten debate looms

There are two weeks left in college football’s regular season, and there appear to be more teams hanging around College Football Playoff contention than falling out.

No. 12 Georgia, very much alive. No. 17 Colorado, humming along. Got a little dicey for No. 3 Texas and No. 14 SMU, but they’re still going. No. 20 Clemson, hanging in there. Arizona State? Sure, come on in.

Mostly what we learned about the Playoff race in Week 12 is that we’re probably heading for a debate about Big Ten and SEC teams.

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Got that Dawg in ’em

Asked what message Georgia sent to the Playoff selection committee with its emphatic 31-17 victory against No. 7 Tennessee, Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart was stumped.

“I don’t know. Because I don’t know what they look for. I don’t know what they look for anymore,” Smart said in a postgame interview with ESPN.

I’m still convinced a 9-3 Georgia team would have found its way into the field, but after plummeting from No. 3 to 12th last week following a loss at Ole Miss, Smart’s team was most definitely on the brink.

“I would welcome anybody in [the College Football Playoff] committee to come down to this league and play in this environment. It’s a tough place to play.”

—Kirby Smart after the win over Tennessee

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What we’re learning in this first season of superconferences is the SEC’s very best teams have not been able to separate from the rest as they did when Alabama was mostly running the league, with interludes from LSU and a recent surge by Georgia. In part, because those top teams are not quite as good as they have been in the past. But also, the teams that frequently occupied the second tier of the SEC — Tennessee and Ole Miss most notably — have closed the gap.

Unless something weird happens against Georgia Tech in the regular-season finale, the Bulldogs should be fine at 10-2 no matter what the SEC tiebreaker spits out to determine championship game participants.

Missouri was the one SEC team that officially exited the race — although the Tigers were barely hanging on before South Carolina broke their hearts in a wild affair at Williams-Brice Stadium.

There is still a possibility that on Dec. 1, the Sunday before championship weekend, six SEC teams will be 10-2: Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M. That would require Texas A&M beating Texas and no other upsets.

SEC CFP and title odds

Team	CFP bid	SEC title	Record
	95%	36%	9-1
	90%	11%	8-2
	81%	4%	8-2
	72%	34%	8-2
	48%	5%	8-2
	11%	10%	8-2

All odds according to Austin Mock’s projections model

Texas-Texas A&M is looking more like an elimination game. Yes, the Longhorns would still be 10-2, but among the contenders, Texas has the least pop on its resume, and it would have lost both of its games against highly-ranked teams (Georgia, A&M). The Longhorns had a hard time shaking Arkansas on Saturday.

For the Aggies, another loss would be their third, and their best victory would have been against LSU (6-4). Enough said.

After a conference champ is determined, that should leave four SEC teams very much in the mix for at-large bids. Can they all get in the field? It likely will depend on how things play out in the Big Ten, which occupied four of the first five spots in the last CFP rankings and could very well do the same in the next.

That has caused a lot of consternation in SEC country because goodness knows the poor SEC needs all the support it can get.

“It’s different in our league,” Smart told reporters, adding: “Go Dawgs.”

The next Big Ten game of the year

For No. 2 Ohio State, next week’s game against No. 5 Indiana could be its third top-five matchup of the season, unless the rankings change on Tuesday.

The Buckeyes are 1-1 on the road against Oregon and Penn State. They’ll host the Hoosiers on Saturday. For Indiana, a top-five matchup in the regular season would be a program first.

The Hoosiers (10-0) celebrated their off week by giving coach Curt Cignetti an eight-year contract that pays $8 million per year. Meanwhile, Ohio State (9-1) took care of business at Wrigley Field against Northwestern.

Oregon (10-0) slogged through a spotty offensive performance against Wisconsin, and Penn State (9-1) showcased talented tight end Tyler Warren in a lopsided win against Purdue.

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That’s four teams with a combined two losses, but because of the SEC’s logjam, the Big Ten’s big four have little room for error.

The winner of next week’s game in Columbus will have the inside track to the Big Ten Championship Game heading into being a big favorite in a rivalry game (Purdue for Indiana and Michigan for Ohio State). The ****** of next week’s unlikely marquee matchup probably will find itself compared to at least one or two of those 10-2 SEC teams come selection weekend. The Big Ten’s mushy middle, with no other ranked teams and nonconference schedules with no Power 4 opponents, could be a problem for the Hoosiers or Buckeyes.

Big 12 CFP and title odds

Team	CFP bid	B1G title	Record
	99%	51%	11-0
	99%	45%	9-1
	93%	1%	9-1
	89%	4%	10-0

Welcome, Sun Devils

Arizona State (8-2) is the latest arriving guest to the Playoff party among Power 4 teams, winning three straight and five of six — including 24-14 at Kansas State on Saturday night.

The Sun Devils’ only path is likely through a Big 12 championship, but after Kansas upset No. 6 BYU 17-13 in Provo, Arizona State’s road to the title game is straightforward: beat BYU at home next week and Arizona after that and the team that has not been ranked in any poll all year will play for a Playoff spot on Dec. 7.

While Indiana’s turnaround under Cignetti has probably locked up national coach of the year for the Hoosiers’ headman, Arizona State’s second season under Kenny Dillingham has been almost as impressive. The Sun Devils went 3-9 last year, barely piecing together an offense from week to week. This year, behind a stingy defense and steady play from  Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt at quarterback, Arizona State has been the biggest surprise in a conference full of them.

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All is far from lost for BYU. The Cougars are in the same spot as ****: Win out and get in. But their first loss is damaging. If BYU could have reached the Big 12 title game 12-0, an at-large bid was probably still on the table if it stumbled at Jerry World. That’s probably gone now, and the Big 12 is going to need some significant upsets in the SEC and Big Ten to get deep into the at-large discussion.

Travis Hunter and the No. 17 Buffaloes kept rolling against Utah and are fully in control of their postseason fate in the Big 12.

But beware Buffs. Up next is Kansas, which has won three of four, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.

Big 12 CFP and title odds

Team	CFP bid	Big 12 title	Record
	46%	51%	8-2
	26%	27%	9-1
	10%	10%	8-2
	10%	10%	8-2

Mountain West vs. AAC

One of the coolest features of the expanded Playoff is the way it gets teams with no connection suddenly very invested in one another.

For example, the budding Boise State–Tulane rivalry.

The Broncos and Green Wave have never played each other, but with Tulane on an eight-game winning streak and a spot in the ********* Athletic Conference championship now clinched, there is a legitimate discussion about which team might be the best in the Group of 5.

Of course, unbeaten Army demands to be part of that conversation, but Boise State and Tulane have played far tougher schedules than the Cadets, including some Power 4 teams.

Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty and the No. 13 Broncos remain the clear favorites to earn a Playoff spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions after rallying from 14-0 down to beat San Jose State.

Tulane has been the stealth contender after losing nonconference games against Kansas State and Oklahoma in September. First-year coach Jon Sumrall’s team has not lost since leaving Norman and just entered the rankings for the first time this week at No. 25.

The Green Wave (9-2, 7-2) became the first team in the country to clinch a spot in a conference title game on Saturday by blowing out Navy 35-0. The result also locked up a spot in the AAC championship for No. 24 Army (9-0, 7-0). With a two-game lead and one to play, the ****** Knights clinched while taking the week off. The site of the game on Dec. 6 is still to be determined.

Army is the more interesting Playoff contender out of the AAC for obvious reasons. The ****** Knights play No. 8 Notre Dame at ******* Stadium next week, before closing out the conference schedule at home vs. UTSA on Nov. 30. Then, after the AAC title game, Army plays its traditional rivalry game against Navy on Dec. 14. That would be a week after the Playoff field is set, meaning the Cadets could have only a week to prepare for a first-round game, almost certainly on the road.

That would be wild, but Tulane looks like the more serious CFP contender out of the AAC behind redshirt freshman quarterback Darian Mensah and defensive lineman Patrick Jenkins.

Boise State is a win away from clinching a spot in the Mountain West title game, and surprisingly Colorado State controls its fate for the other spot. It would be best for the conference if UNLV (8-2) can somehow squeeze past the Rams, who play neither Boise State nor UNLV in the regular season. The Rebels would have a case for a Playoff spot if they could win a postseason rematch with the Broncos.

Good times in the Group of 5 and definitely more interesting than playing for a spot in a bowl game that kicks off at noon on New Year’s Day against a Power 4 team with a bunch of players opting out.

Group of 5 Playoff odds

Team	CFP bid	Conf	Record
	66%	MWC	9-1
	25%	AAC	9-2
	17%	AAC	9-0
	8%	MWC	8-2

ACC still a three-team race

SMU (9-1) held off Boston College to remain unbeaten in the ACC, and Clemson (8-2) kept its hopes of sneaking into the conference championship game alive with a late, long touchdown run by Cade Klubnik against Pitt. The Mustangs finish with Virginia and Cal and have a little room to stumble because they hold a tiebreaker over the Tigers by beating Louisville.

No. 9 Miami (9-1) was off and also holds the tiebreaker against Clemson, which is in the clubhouse with a 7-1 ACC record.

So: about Louisville. The Cardinals were ranked 19th last week, with three losses but all close games to ranked teams (SMU, Miami, Notre Dame). Louisville was looking like a nice resume builder for its opponents. Then the Cardinals went to Stanford and somehow managed to ***** a 14-point fourth-quarter lead to the Cardinal, who won on a walk-off, 52-yard field goal by Emmet Kenney.

How much Louisville’s status mattered is debatable. The ACC was probably headed for one CFP bid anyway, but those arguments just got ******* to make.

ACC CFP and title odds

Team	CFP bid	ACC title	Record
	68%	45%	9-1
	44%	32%	9-1
	25%	24%	8-2

(Photo: John Adams / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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