QB Betrayal Index: Lamar Jackson acing his toughest test; Justin Herbert finally gets a break

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QB Betrayal Index: Lamar Jackson acing his toughest test; Justin Herbert finally gets a break

The Quarterback Betrayal Index is back, with a surprise new standard bearer: Lamar Jackson. The Baltimore Ravens’ quarterback for years benefited from elite defense/special teams support, but not in 2024. His ability to overcome poor play in those areas during a 7-3 start enhances his MVP credentials.

Introduced before the 2022 NFL season, the Betrayal Index measures the degree to which quarterbacks overcome poor play by their own teams’ defenses/special teams, the part of the team they cannot control. It’s the context needed to discuss quarterback win rates.

An extreme example: Drew Brees won only 45 percent of his starts (21-26 record) from 2014 to 2016 despite New Orleans ranking No. 1 in a range of offensive categories. The Saints’ historically bad defense/special teams betrayed Brees, resulting in the losing record.

The QB Betrayal Index through Week 10 of 2024 is especially interesting because two prominent quarterbacks, Jackson and Justin Herbert, have traded places.

Both led productive offenses in the past, but Jackson had the superior win rate (75 percent to 48 percent) largely because, before this season, his Ravens ranked second in combined EPA on defense/special teams during his career (since 2018), while Herbert’s Los Angeles Chargers ranked 31st during his (since 2020), per TruMedia.

The big revelation this season has come in Jackson’s ability to keep winning (7-3 record, including 2-0 against the similarly betrayed Joe Burrow) despite his Ravens ranking 31st in combined EPA on defense/special teams in 2024. Herbert’s Chargers are 6-3 because they rank first on defense/special teams EPA on a per-game basis this season, with an offense that ranks middle-of-the-pack statistically.

The table below stacks all 34 quarterbacks with at least five starts this season by the difference between where these players rank in QB EPA, and where their teams rank in defense/special teams EPA during each QB’s starts.

Jackson, Burrow, Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins, Jayden Daniels, Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray are the best examples of betrayed quarterbacks this season. All rank highly in QB EPA for teams with low-ranked defense/special teams. Quarterbacks in the middle rank about the same in QB EPA as their defenses/special teams rank. Quarterbacks at the bottom produce less for teams with stronger defenses/special teams.

2024 QB Betrayal Index through Week 10

The 34 quarterbacks have a combined 37-94 (.282) record this season in starts when their teams finished with negative combined EPA on defense/special teams. That includes 0-55 for a group of 16 quarterbacks headlined by Mayfield (0-6), Aaron Rodgers (0-5) and Burrow (0-4). It’s difficult to win these games, but some quarterbacks — Jackson in particular — have been able to prevail anyway.

We’ll close by examining the seven most betrayed quarterbacks this season, plus a closer look at Herbert and the Chargers’ drastic shift.

Most betrayed

1. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

QB-EPA 1st | DST 32nd | Betrayal Index: -31

W-L: 7-3 (.700)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 5-3 (.625, 5th)

Jackson has shown an unusual ability to win what I call “extreme betrayal” games. He is 3-1 this season when the Ravens finished with -10 or worse EPA on defense/special teams. The other 33 quarterbacks listed here have a combined 5-45 (.100) record in those games.

That’s the equivalent of winning three-fourths of the time after spotting the opponent 10 points. It’s not necessarily a fluke, either.

Jackson has a 7-6 career record in extreme betrayal games, making him the only quarterback since 2000 to start at least three of these games and have a winning record in them. Rich Gannon is next at 5-5.

Tom Brady (18-25), Peyton Manning (22-32) and Brees (27-54) have the best records since 2000 in these games among quarterbacks with at least 30 such starts. The league at large has won 15 percent of these games.

The chart below shows Jackson’s cumulative EPA since he became the Ravens’ starter compared to Baltimore’s cumulative EPA on defense/special teams during that span, with the two heading in opposite directions since this season began.

2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

QB-EPA 5th | DST 31st | Betrayal Index: -26

W-L: 4-6 (.400)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 0-4 (.000, T-18th)

Burrow is 0-4 in extreme betrayal games this season but has 24 touchdown passes with four interceptions and a 108.1 rating in them. Cincinnati fell to Baltimore by scores of 41-38 and 35-34. There was also a 38-33 defeat to Washington and a 37-17 defeat to Philadelphia. Burrow was 4-7 in extreme betrayal games before this season. He’s playing more of them now.

3. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

QB-EPA 6th | DST 29th | Betrayal Index: -23

W-L: 4-6 (.400)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 0-6 (.000, T-18th)

The Buccaneers are 4-0 when they finish with positive EPA on defense/special teams, but 0-6 otherwise. That is typically the hallmark of a team featuring a win-with quarterback, as opposed to a win-because-of QB. But with four of those defeats falling into the extreme betrayal bucket, Mayfield deserves more credit. He has generally kept Tampa close in four extreme betrayal games, but the Buccaneers lost 36-30 and 31-26 to the Falcons, 30-24 to Kansas City and 41-31 to Baltimore in those difficult-to-win matchups.

4. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons

QB-EPA 8th | DST 30th | Betrayal Index: -22

W-L: 6-4 (.600)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 3-3 (.500, T-7th)

Two victories over Tampa Bay and another over Philadelphia in games in which the Falcons’ defense/special teams faltered helped offset a tough opening-week defeat against Pittsburgh, when Cousins and the offense struggled in his first game back from a torn Achilles.

5. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

QB-EPA 3rd | DST 24th | Betrayal Index: -21

W-L: 7-3 (.700)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 3-2 (.600, T-7th)

Daniels’ signature Betrayal Index game came at Burrow’s expense: 38-33 at Cincinnati in Week 3, capped by Daniels’ 27-yard touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin on third-and-7 with 2:15 remaining in a game Washington led 31-26. That was the knockout punch by the Commanders, who also beat the Giants twice in games when Washington finished with negative combined EPA on defense/special teams.

6. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

QB-EPA 4th | DST 20th | Betrayal Index: -16

W-L: 5-4 (.555)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 2-3 (.400, 10th)

Purdy’s continued production has been one of the few constants for the 49ers as they’ve worked through injuries on offense and inconsistent play on defense/special teams. He passed for 645 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions in the 49ers’ two extreme betrayal games this season. That was enough to beat Tampa Bay on Sunday. It was not quite enough to beat the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3, despite San Francisco leading by 10 points in the fourth quarter.

Purdy has an 8-6 record in betrayal games during his career, including 2-2 in extreme betrayal games (-10 or worse EPA on defense/special teams). Jimmy Garoppolo was 11-11 in betrayal games as a 49er. Past starters Colin Kaepernick (3-22) and Alex Smith (6-22-1) did not fare as well in those games for San Francisco.

T-7. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

QB-EPA 9 | DST 23 | Betrayal Index: -14

W-L: 6-4 (.600)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 3-3 (.500, T-7th)

The Cardinals have won and lost with Murray this season. They are 5-1 in games when he finishes with positive EPA, but 1-3 otherwise. Murray did win an extreme betrayal game, 28-27 over Miami. He is now 4-12 in his career in extreme betrayal games. Other Cardinals quarterbacks are 2-58 (.033) in those games since 2000, with Jake Plummer accounting for both victories (he was 2-14 in those games, while Hall of Famer Kurt Warner was 0-11 in them for Arizona).

Things are looking up in L.A.

T-25. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

QB-EPA 14 | DST 1 | Betrayal Index: +13

W-L: 6-3 (.667)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 1-2 (.333, T-11th)

In a change for the Chargers, their defense/special teams have done much more than their quarterback to win games this season. The team’s three losses came in games when the defense/special teams were either very good (+7.1 EPA in a 17-10 defeat to Kansas City) or barely below average (-1.0 EPA in 20-10 defeat to Pittsburgh as well as in a 17-15 defeat to Arizona).

The chart below compares Herbert’s cumulative EPA to the cumulative EPA of the Chargers’ defense/special teams. The uptick on defense/special teams began late last season with games against bad offenses: New England in Week 13 and Denver in Week 14, right before Herbert landed on injured reserve.

Herbert’s 5-10 record (.333) in extreme betrayal games is better than the 10-37 (.213) mark for Philip Rivers and the 3-12 (.200) mark for Drew Brees among Chargers quarterbacks since 2000.

(Photo of Lamar Jackson: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)

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