[ECO]Trump Doesn’t Matter – Why it “Might Not” Be So Bad

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Trump has been elected to the White House; here’s why Trump doesn’t matter and why he won’t be able to steamroll the clean transition currently underway.

So, here we are again. After a collective deep breath from environmentalists nationwide, it’s time to assess what Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory means for our environmental future. While he’s flat-out said he will focus on expanding his destructive policies, such as those in the controversial

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, there’s only so much he can do. If you read between the lines, it turns out that maybe Trump doesn’t matter anyway.

When I started this website in January 2018, Trump was about a year into his first presidential term, and renewable energy was still just for idealists. It was expensive, somewhat unreliable, and unproven. Well, things have changed: The clean energy sector has created 330,000 new jobs in the US, and thanks to President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), two-thirds of new

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are in Trump-supporting counties. Those red districts are quietly turning a subtle shade of green, both with renewable energy and economically speaking. Trump-favoring districts have received three times as much clean energy investment as Biden-leaning areas, leading 18 *********** House members to advocate for maintaining IRA clean energy tax credits. It seems economic reality has become an unexpected environmental ally, with $265 billion in clean energy projects already announced.

Traditionally cautious about environmental commitments, corporate America has undergone a significant transformation in the last 10 years. Most companies have now discovered that sustainability isn’t just for their marketing brochures. It is real and can make or break a company’s reputation. Banks and insurance companies, bastions of ************* thinking, are suddenly taking climate change very seriously, facing mounting pressure to divest from fossil fuels. Calculating climate risk is remarkably similar to protecting the bottom line—and nobody does that better than Wall Street.

The institutional framework supporting environmental protection has grown remarkably robust. The IRA’s $8 billion in tax credits already benefits millions of Americans who might not even realize they’re participating in environmental progress (someone please remind them). States like Washington and California are charging ahead with climate initiatives, while Montana, not exactly known for environmental activism, has established a constitutional right to a clean environment. In addition, the courts are increasingly recognizing climate change as a serious legal consideration. Many big companies, fearing a legal backlash like the one against big tobacco, are already investing in alternate revenue sources.

Clean technology keeps advancing with or without political permission. Renewable energy costs are dropping steadily, making clean energy increasingly competitive. Private sector innovation has taken on a life of its own. The notoriously ************* and highly respected International Energy Association has even said so. In their recent report, 

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, they say the transition to clean energy is unstoppable and will hit exponential growth in the coming decade – with or without external support. The cleantech industry is driven by forward-thinking entrepreneurs eager to get the early mover position. They are determined to advance clean energy solutions regardless of the political climate.

U.S. companies must choose between leading the clean technology revolution or watching from the sidelines in the global arena. Even the most ardent America-first advocates might struggle to explain why we should surrender technological leadership and early advantage of the IRA to global competitors.

Trump’s proposed tariffs on ******** imports could curtail the cheap disposable goods economy. While trade wars weren’t on environmentalists’ wish lists, this policy might inadvertently serve some environmental goals. The potential reshoring of manufacturing to the U.S. would bring production under significantly stricter environmental regulations. The Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, and EPA oversight – however embattled they may be – still set higher standards than many of their international counterparts.

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Maybe we could do with fewer of these ships carrying cheap, disposable trinkets to US markets. Photo by Dominik Lückmann on Unsplash

Consider the carbon footprint of shipping millions of containers across the Pacific each year. Those massive container ships, running on some of the dirtiest fuel available, have been like a ****** hidden line item in our carbon accounting. Shorter supply chains could mean significantly reduced transportation emissions. Moreover, the higher costs of consumer goods might finally force a long-overdue conversation about our throwaway culture. When that cheap disposable item becomes an expensive disposable item, “reduce and reuse” suddenly starts making as much sense to the wallet as it does to the environment. We would likely see increased consumer demand for higher quality items that can be repaired or handed down instead of simply entering the waste stream.

This would be true not only in America but also in Europe and other regions that trade with China. The loss of or reduction in lucrative shipping routes to the US by big global transport companies like Maersk would cause chaos in the shipping industry. Routes that depend on the high volume of transit will see profitability eroded and result in even higher shipping costs for the so-called cheap goods from China. Suddenly, the $5 disposable selfie stick on

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might cost $15 or more, causing people to rethink their late-night impulse purchases.

U.S. manufacturers operating under stricter environmental protocols, better labor standards, and higher efficiency requirements might offer an unexpected environmental silver lining to these protectionist clouds. The irony of potentially achieving some environmental goals through policies never intended to help the environment isn’t lost on those who’ve spent decades pushing for stronger environmental protections.

Challenges? Of course. But climate change continues its unwelcome march, breaking records with disturbing regularity. Environmental justice ******** a critical concern, and the pace of change needs to accelerate significantly, but the foundation for progress seems more stable than we might have expected on election night.

Environmental progress has become surprisingly resilient – it grows regardless of who’s in charge, nurtured by a complex web of state initiatives, consumer market forces, and technological advancement. While US federal policy can still speed things up or slow things down, it’s no longer the only factor determining our environmental future.

The transition to sustainability has developed its own momentum. Political leadership can influence its direction, but stopping it entirely? That seems unlikely. There is a whole world of dedicated people, companies, and countries tirelessly working to make things better.

Through economic opportunity, technological innovation, and institutional momentum, Trump doesn’t matter, and environmental progress continues its steady march forward. Perhaps the most interesting development is that some of our strongest allies in this ****** might even be wearing red ball caps. Whether they realize it or not doesn’t even matter.

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