What we learned about the CFP in Week 11: Mizzou’s ‘Playoff hunt’? One-bid ACC? Assume nothing

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What we learned about the CFP in Week 11: Mizzou’s ‘Playoff hunt’? One-bid ACC? Assume nothing

The 12-team College Football Playoff has made it challenging to pinpoint just how big the fall’s biggest games are. For decades, the result of a regular-season game could feel definitive. Even if it wasn’t quite so, it could be pretty ***** close.

That’s not the case anymore.

After the number of unbeaten teams shrunk to four in Week 11, we’ve learned that using the phrase “If they win out” is fraught with peril and the SEC seems to be headed for a massive logjam.

Magnificent 7

After Missouri beat Oklahoma 30-23 in a bonkers game that included five touchdowns in the fourth quarter — four in the final 3:18 — Tigers coach Eli Drinkwitz proclaimed his team still alive in the Playoff race.

Coach Drinkwitz says tonight’s win was big because it keeps Mizzou in the playoff hunt

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— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness)

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“That’s right. I said it. Playoff hunt,” Drinkwitz said.

Really?

Well, put it this way: Mizzou is now one of seven SEC teams that could finish the regular season 10-2, along with — in alphabetical order — Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M. Those six all landed in the CFP selection committee’s top 16 last week.

Only two SEC games are remaining matching any of those seven teams. Next week, Georgia tries to bounce back from its second loss of the season against Tennessee in Athens. On Thanksgiving weekend, Texas goes to Texas A&M.

Georgia had a chance to vote Ole Miss off the island, but Rebels coach Lane Kiffin finally broke through with a top-five victory to remain very much alive. Now the Bulldogs, preseason No. 1 and the favorites to win the national championship, are in danger of missing out on a 12-team bracket.

Unthinkable.

The Crimson Tide rolled past LSU 42-13 to unofficially, but undeniably, eliminate the Tigers from Playoff contention. Tennessee and the winner of Texas-Texas A&M control their paths to the SEC title game, which is better than the alternative, but control feels like an illusion this season.

As for Mizzou and Drinkwitz, nobody should apologize for going 7-2, especially a program that does not regularly churn out double-digit-victory seasons. The reality is Missouri, which was ranked 25th by the selection committee last week, clearly sits seventh in the SEC’s Playoff pecking order.

The Athletic’s projections model gives Missouri a 0.3 percent chance of making the Playoff. So, you’re saying there’s a chance?

SEC CFP and title odds

Team	CFP bid	SEC title	Record
	78%	42%	8-1
	75%	9%	7-2
	68%	10%	7-2
	62%	10%	8-2
	39%	13	8-1
	12%	12	7-2
	4%	4	6-3
	0.3%	0.3%	7-2

Hurricane warning

No. 4 Miami had been tempting fate and hoping for quarterback Cam Ward to pull it out of precarious situations for most of the last month and a half. Four times in the previous five games, the Hurricanes fell behind only to have Ward and their potent offense bail them out and keep them unbeaten.

Ward ran out of second-half magic against Georgia Tech, and now the Canes’ path to the Playoff has narrowed. SMU, 13th in the committee’s initial rankings, had a productive off week. The Mustangs are now alone atop the ACC standings.

Miami’s loss was the 10th this season by an AP top-10 team against an unranked team. That means the rankings at the time of the games, which means Georgia Tech has two of those victories after starting the season by beating preseason No. 10 Florida State in Ireland. Yes, sometimes early-season upsets are not what they appear to be.

Still, that list includes Kentucky over Ole Mis, Arkansas over Tennessee and, of course, Northern Illinois over Notre Dame. It almost added Utah over No. 9 BYU later Saturday night.

It has been a fun season.

Thanks to Pitt’s loss to Virginia, Miami is still in control of its ACC championship hopes heading into an off week. The Canes conclude the season with games against Syracuse and Boston College — both very winnable. Then again, so was Georgia Tech.

“We have a bye week with everything in front of us to play for,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal said.

The Yellow Jackets ran for 271 yards and held the ball for nearly 35 minutes. Two ******* fourth-down conversions by Miami in Georgia Tech territory were essentially the difference in a 28-23 loss.

The ******* issue for Miami is that the prospect of getting into the Playoff just by reaching the ACC Championship Game just went down. Look at all those SEC teams potentially sitting there with two losses. Then take a peek at the Big Ten, where the odds continue to rise that its four CFP contenders (Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State) all will win at least 10 regular-season games.

If the Hurricanes reach the ACC title game, they are likely to do so having beaten only one ranked team (Louisville).

That measurement can be a little deceiving and random. Is there that much difference between team No. 25 and team No. 30? Not really.

Still, the ACC moved closer to being a one-bid league Saturday.

ACC CFP and title odds

Team	CFP bid	ACC title	Record
	70%	36%	9-1
	42%	26%	8-1
	38%	36%	7-2
	1%	2%	6-3

GO DEEPER

College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Indiana up to 92 percent chance to make field

2024 BYU = 2022 TCU

BYU’s unbeaten season appeared to be over when quarterback Jake Retzlaff was sacked near his goal line on a fourth down with less than two minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Cougars have dodged a few losses on the way 9-0, but no escape was greater than Saturday night’s against rival Utah.

A holding penalty on the Utes wiped out what likely would have been a decisive sack, and the Cougars took their second chance and drove to set up a game-winning field goal in the waning seconds. The 11-point halftime deficit was the largest BYU has overcome to win since 2002 against Utah State.

“We won this game. Someone else stole it from us,” Utah athletic director Mark Harlan told reporters. “This was not fair to our team. I’m disgusted by the professionalism of the officiating crew tonight.”

Utah Athletic Director Mark Harlan Post Game

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— Elijah Grayson Murray (@elijahgmurray)

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OK, then.

The Cougars remain alone in first in the Big 12, a mere game ahead of Colorado, which had its own come-from-behind victory on Saturday night.

Indiana already has locked up this season’s best turnaround, the perennial Big Ten doormat now in contention for a conference title after going 3-9 last season. BYU is not quite that, but the Cougars went 5-7 in their first season in the Big 12 last year and were picked to finish near the bottom of the conference again.

Sound familiar?

TCU took a similar path to the Playoff in 2022. These Cougars are no Hypnotoads, but they are most definitely a vibes-based operation.

Big 12 spoiler

Kansas has had one of the most disappointing years in the country, starting the season ranked and losing its first five FBS games, none by more than 11 points.

The Jayhawks now have won two of three, with only a two-point loss to Kansas State preventing a three-game winning streak. Quarterback Jalon Daniels and company pretty much eliminated Iowa State from the CFP race with a 45-36 victory Saturday.

Kansas can continue to play spoiler for the next two weeks. The Jayhawks visit BYU next week and host Colorado after that.

Keeping BYU out of the Big 12 Championship Game at this point is going to take at least two losses by the Cougars. Avoiding that is not going to be as easy as it might have looked a few weeks ago.

BYU goes to Arizona State in two weeks. As good as the turnaround in Provo has been, Sun Devils coach Kenny Dillingham’s has been even better in Tempe. Arizona State (7-2, 4-2) is also still in contention for a spot in the Big 12 title game.

And BYU closes its regular season at home against Houston, which has won three of its last four.

Big 12 CFP and title odds

Team	CFP bid	Big 12 title	Record
	59%	32%	9-0
	41%	42%	7-2
	14%	11%	7-2
	8%	7%	7-2
	3%	3%	7-2

Tested Hoosiers

It took 10 games, but finally somebody made Indiana work deep into the fourth quarter.

Indiana is 10-0 for the first time after beating defending national champion Michigan 20-15 in what was by far the Hoosiers’ worst offensive game of the season.

“I’m glad we won,” coach Curt Cignetti said. “I don’t like the way we played.”

10 games, 10 wins.

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— Indiana Football (@IndianaFootball)

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Considering Indiana improved to 11-62 all-time against Michigan, I’m pretty confident that sentence never had been uttered by a Hoosiers coach after beating the Wolverines.

Indiana gets a week off before playing at Ohio State. It would seem that the Hoosiers have built up enough credit to sustain a loss to the Buckeyes and get into the Playoff, but the strength of schedule metric is still hanging around Indiana like an anchor. The Wolverines are now 5-5.

Big Ten CFP and title odds

Team	CFP bid	B1G title	Record
	99%	63%	10-0
	99%	20%	8-1
	95%	8%	8-1
	92%	9%	10-0

(Photo: Ed Zurga / Getty Images)

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#learned #CFP #Week #Mizzous #Playoff #hunt #Onebid #ACC #Assume

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