NFL Coach of the Year, MVP and biggest surprises (and disappointments) at midseason

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NFL Coach of the Year, MVP and biggest surprises (and disappointments) at midseason

With a 7-2 record, the Washington Commanders have already exceeded the full-season win total oddsmakers set for them entering the 2024 NFL season.

Their head coach (Dan Quinn), offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury) and rookie quarterback (Jayden Daniels) all deserve consideration for midseason honors as we assess the season near its midpoint. But how to divide the credit? That’s the fun and illuminating part as I run through my midseason ballot for Coach of the Year, MVP, Comeback Player of the Year, top coordinators, top rookies, biggest surprises, disappointments and more.

1. The Minnesota Vikings’ Kevin O’Connell is the midseason choice for Coach of the Year.

Andy Reid and Bill Belichick are arguably the greatest coaches of this century. Reid last won Coach of the Year in 2002. His team has an 8-0 record this season and is winning with a different formula, but we are so conditioned to his success, and the resourcefulness of Patrick Mahomes, that Reid’s name scarcely even arises for the award. He might be above it. Belichick was a three-time winner from 2003 to 2010, but never thereafter.

We tend to focus on coaches perceived to be doing more with less in a given season.

O’Connell fits that profile. He’s my choice because the Vikings have nearly matched their preseason Vegas win total after losing their starting quarterback to a season-ending injury during preseason. The sortable table below shows Minnesota ranking second to Washington in actual wins as a percentage of full-season Vegas totals.

The Vikings have won primarily with defense, but O’Connell has gotten more than expected from a Sam Darnold-quarterbacked offense. Darnold ranks second to Lamar Jackson and just ahead of Jared Goff in explosive pass rate, with 22.3 percent of his passes gaining more than 15 yards (excluding situations when field position made gaining that many yards impossible).

Also strongly considered: Green Bay’s Matt LaFleur, for winning without his starting quarterback in a reimagined style while developing the NFL’s youngest roster and improving, at least so far, on defense with the new coordinator LaFleur hired; the Los Angeles Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh, for instantly remaking his new team in his image; the Detroit Lions’ Dan Campbell, for winning in a complementary fashion and in his vision for style of play.

2. Lamar Jackson is my midseason MVP. Here’s what is different about his game.

Jackson has 20 touchdown passes with two interceptions for the NFL’s top offense by total EPA, EPA per play and success rate. He leads the league in passer rating (120.7), EPA per pass play (0.35), quarterback EPA on passes/rushes (107.9) and explosive pass rate (23.3 percent).

Much more than in the past, the Ravens (6-3) are winning because of their highly rated offense and in spite of their defense/special teams, which rank 30th in combined EPA. This makes Jackson’s contributions more valuable to team success.

The chart below shows EPA per game on pass plays and rushes/scrambles for Jackson, Washington’s Daniels, the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen and Detroit’s Goff. I’ve also included the full-season averages for Jackson when he won the award in 2023 and the 10 MVP quarterbacks before that. Jackson’s production this season beats all of them and nearly quadruples his pace from 2023 when there was no clear-cut MVP from a statistical standpoint.

Jackson has enjoyed hot streaks and big seasons previously as a two-time MVP. In looking to see what might be different this year, and whether it might help him sustain success in the playoffs, one area stood out as a possibility.

Jackson is taking fewer sacks when opposing defenses blitz. He has taken only four sacks on 96 pass plays (4.3 percent) against the blitz this season, down from 18 sacks in 185 such plays (10.3 percent) last season. His explosive pass rate against the blitz (25 percent) is a career high.

Could Jackson be processing the game more efficiently as a veteran player in his second season in a new offense? That is possible. He did put up similarly impressive numbers against the blitz during his 2019 MVP season: 24 touchdowns, two interceptions and nine sacks in 138 pass plays (6.8 percent). That season and this one align much more than his 2023 MVP season.

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3. Los Angeles Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter is a clear choice for top defensive assistant.

Lots of good candidates here. Brian Flores of the Vikings and Vance Joseph of the Denver Broncos deserve mention. Philadelphia’s Vic Fangio will be one to watch as the Eagles’ season progresses. The Lions’ defense has made a jump under Aaron Glenn, while the Packers have gotten good results so far with Jeff Hafley as defensive coordinator.

Minter stands out because he has instantly driven the NFL’s largest year-over-year defensive reversal, turning the 28th-ranked defense by EPA per play — both last season and over the previous four — into the No. 1 unit this season through Week 9. Over the previous three seasons, the Chargers ranked no higher than 25th after eight games or through a full season, despite having a defensive play-calling head coach in Brandon Staley.

From a statistical standpoint, it’s as though Minter packed up the Ravens’ defense, which he helped coach from 2017 to 2020 before serving as coordinator at Vanderbilt and Michigan, and brought it to Los Angeles.

The table below shows the Chargers’ defense becoming 11.4 EPA per game better this season, best in the league, while the Ravens’ defense is 11.7 EPA per game worse, the largest year-over-year decline.

4. Washington Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is a clear choice for top offensive assistant.

Daniels deserves plenty of the credit for Washington’s year-over-year improvement on offense, but the way Kingsbury has deployed him stands out. He has taken an overly pass-oriented offense and made it a balanced one, with spectacular results.

The table below shows the Commanders’ offense improving by 16 EPA per game, by far the biggest year-over-year jump.

It’s notable seeing the New York Jets second on that list during a season in which their offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, was replaced by Todd Downing (Aaron Rodgers’ presence is a big part of that, even with his inconsistency). But the Jets rank 506th out of 798 teams since 2000 in drive scoring rate (31.3 percent). The Commanders rank first on that list with a 60.7 percent rate. The next team was the 2018 Chiefs at 52.9 percent.

There are some other strong candidates. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Liam Coen and the Ravens’ Todd Monken are both leading offenses that were solid last season, and significantly better in 2024. The Lions’ Ben Johnson has one of two offenses averaging nearly 31 points per game (Baltimore’s is the other). Atlanta’s Zac Robinson has teamed with quarterback Kirk Cousins to turn around the Falcons’ offense. Kingsbury stands apart for the historic production with a rookie quarterback.

5. There is no player in the NFL quite like my choice for Defensive Player of the Year.

We’ll run through five individual player awards here, starting on the defensive side.

• Defensive Player of the Year: Dexter Lawrence II, New York Giants. Lawrence is a 6-foot-4, 340-pound nose tackle with nine sacks in nine games, twice his full-season total from 2023 when he finished ninth in voting for the award.

Although defensive tackles won three of the first four DPOY awards (introduced in 1971), including “Mean” Joe Greene twice in the early 1970s, none fit Lawrence’s profile from a size standpoint. Aaron Donald (280 pounds) is the only defensive tackle to win the award since 2000. Cortez Kennedy, Dana Stubblefield and Warren Sapp won it in the 1990s, all while weighing in the lower 300s.

• Offensive Player of the Year: Derrick Henry, Ravens. Henry is averaging 6.3 yards per carry and has a league-leading 1,052 yards rushing, putting him on pace for 1,987 yards at age 30. That would break Tiki Barber’s NFL single-season record for rushing yards in a season at age 30 or older. Barber rushed for 1,860 yards in a 16-game 2005 season, good for a 116.3 average per game (Henry’s average is 116.9).

• Offensive Rookie of the Year: Daniels, Commanders. Daniels’ performance as a high-producing quarterback for a winning team differentiates him from Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers, Giants receiver Malik Nabers and Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr.

• Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jared Verse, Los Angeles Rams. Verse leads all rookies in sacks (3 1/2), pressures (39) and tackles for loss that were not sacks (six). In addition to his 33 tackles, Verse also has 24 plays when he was the first defender to make contact with a ball carrier. That is nine more than any other rookie (teammate Braden Fiske is second in this category as well as in sacks and pressures among rookies).

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• Comeback Player of the Year: Kirk Cousins, Falcons. Cousins beats out Rodgers and Joe Burrow for different reasons. He’s ahead of Rodgers, who is also returning from a torn Achilles tendon because he has produced more consistently this season. He’s ahead of Burrow because he’s older and returning from a more serious injury.

6. I’ll close with a few of the biggest surprises and disappointments.

Pleasant surprises not mentioned elsewhere:

• The Arizona Cardinals leading the NFC West with a 5-4 record after a five-week stretch in which they defeated the 49ers, Chargers, Dolphins and Bears when all those teams’ starting quarterbacks were healthy.

• Mike Tomlin and Sean Payton, two Super Bowl-winning coaches facing increased scrutiny entering the season, having their teams in AFC playoff contention despite quarterback uncertainty, while the Bengals, Jets, Dolphins, Browns and Jaguars are on the outside, looking in.

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense getting better with Coen as coordinator and playing particularly well in the rain at Kansas City against a tough Chiefs defense without starting receivers Mike Evans or Chris Godwin.

• The Chiefs ranking No. 1 in success rate on offense through Week 8 despite Mahomes having more interceptions than touchdowns to that point in the season

• Josh Allen being on pace for a career high in EPA per pass play with a reconfigured Bills receiving corps and a little luck on the interception front.

Disappointments not mentioned elsewhere:

• The Bears stumbling on multiple levels in their first season with quarterback Caleb Williams: giving up outlier plays in critical moments to lose games (Hail Mary at Washington, 53-yard TD run before halftime at Arizona); struggling to support Williams from personnel and scheme standpoints; and coach Matt Eberflus struggling to sound authentically accountable along the way.

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• The Jaguars ranking 32nd in defensive EPA per play after ******* defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell, whose unit ranked 11th last season. Caldwell’s replacement, Ryan Nielsen, seemed to do more with less in Atlanta last season, when the Falcons ranked 10th, compounding the surprise in Jacksonville.

• The Dolphins’ offense ceasing to operate even a little bit when Tua Tagovailoa was injured, either because of coaching or personnel or some combination of both, while the Packers kept rolling with newly acquired backup Malik Willis.

• The Seattle Seahawks leading the league in pass attempts and ranking second in pass frequency while their offensive line and/or blocking schemes continually falter, contributing to quarterback Geno Smith being pressured 153 times, most in the league.

• The 49ers missing ********** McCaffrey for the first half of the season after listing him as questionable on the Week 1 injury report.

• Aidan Hutchinson suffering a season-ending injury during a special season for him and possibly for the Lions.

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The story of the greatest players in NFL history. In 100 riveting profiles, top football writers justify their selections and uncover the history of the NFL in the process.

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(Photo of Kevin O’Connell: Naomi Baker / Getty Images)

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