U.S. election reaction and stock moves

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U.S. election reaction and stock moves

Bitcoin surges to a new record of $75,000 as traders bet Trump has election edge

Omar Marques | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Bitcoin rallied Tuesday evening hitting an all-time high as investors bet former President Donald Trump was gaining an edge in the U.S. election.

The price of the flagship cryptocurrency touched a record $75,000 on the nose, according to Coin Metrics. Its gains increased as Trump took an early lead in the Electoral College, even though none of the major swing states were called yet by NBC News.

Exchange operator Coinbase rose 3% in after hours trading, while MicroStrategy, advanced 4%.

For more on bitcoin’s price action on election night read our full story here.

— Tanaya Macheel

10-year Treasury yield pops

Treasury yields jumped in early trading Tuesday evening as traders saw former President Donald Trump having an edge in the election.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 16 basis points at 4.44%, hitting its highest level since July 2. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by 10 basis points to 4.30%. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship.

Even though none of the major swing states were called yet by NBC News, traders speculated the early returns were favoring Trump.

Bond yields could see a big pop in the event of a Trump win, and they could surge in a *********** sweep, where the party captures control of Congress and the White House. That is because Republicans may introduce tax cuts and steep tariffs, moves that could widen the fiscal deficit and reignite inflation.

“Bonds are selling off across the yield curve massively as the Trump trade gets applied again,” wrote Byron Anderson, head of fixed income at Laffer Tengler Investments. “We see markets expecting a Trump victory and a real possibility of a *********** sweep.”

— Yun Li

CNBC Pro: Buy these 3 stocks — whatever the election result, analyst says

As the results of one of the most hotly contested elections in the U.S. come in, investors are scrambling to position for the most likely outcome.

Shelby McFaddin, senior analyst at Motley Fool Asset Management, said she expects volatility this week, but a “limited impact on long-term investments as markets await real policy implications.”

Any bets made before the results are final are “pure speculation,” she told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Nov. 5. “Either potential administrations would bring an increase in infrastructure spending and inflation ******** a concern.”

Looking past the election result, McFaddin named three stocks she likes right now.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Amala Balakrishner

Investors should sell a Trump rally or buy a Harris dip, says Citi’s Scott Chronert

Investors should sell a potential rally in the market if Trump wins the election, according to Citi’s Scott Chronert.

“Your starting point is a fairly extended valuation circumstance that’s predicated on very strong earnings growth follow-through into 2025,” the bank’s U.S. equity strategist told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Tuesday. “Our concern is that with that set up, you go into a Trump win and you introduce tariffs into the discussion … [and] 2025 growth expectations become a bit more suspect as we navigate tariff action.”

On the other hand, if Harris is victorious, Chronert said investors should consider buying an anticipated market dip. 

“It really comes down to Trump and tariffs, and Harris and taxes,” he said.

— Sean Conlon

Oil market could face volatility if Trump wins, Goldman Sachs says

A second Trump administration is more likely to bring volatility to the oil market, according to Goldman Sachs.

Donald Trump could tighten sanctions on Iran, reducing supply from the Islamic Republic and putting upward pressure on prices in the short term, the investment bank told clients in a Monday note.

Oil prices rose about 1% as voters in the U.S. headed to the polls. U.S. crude oil had gained 35 cents, or 0.49%, to $71.82 per barrel by 8:56 a.m. ET. Global benchmark Brent crude futures added 33 cents, or 0.44%, to $75.41 per barrel.

“Conceptually, the impact of a potential second Trump term on oil prices is ambiguous,” Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, vice president of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, told clients in a note Monday.

Over the medium term, however, a second Trump administration could heighten trade tensions through tariffs, putting downward pressure on global oil demand and prices, according to Goldman.

— Spencer Kimball

CNBC Pro: These 2 stocks beat the S&P 500 in election Novembers no matter who won

Two stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 every November when elections have been held over the past three decades — regardless of the outcome, according to a CNBC Pro study.

CNBC Pro screened for stocks currently in the MSCI World Index that gained more than the S&P 500 — or lost less than the index — in November of every election year since 1988. The 36-year ******* has seen four Republicans and five Democrats elected to the White House.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about the two stocks here.

— Ganesh Rao

Tue, Nov 5 202412:00 AM EST

********* markets: Here are the opening calls

********* markets are expected to open in mixed territory Tuesday.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 15 points lower at 8,177, Germany’s DAX down 12 points at 19,149, France’s CAC down 1 point at 7,374 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 73 points at 34,358, according to data from IG.

Earnings are set to come from Earnings come from Saudi Aramco, Adecco, Schaeffler, Deutsche Post DHL, Zalando, Hugo Boss, Bouygues, Ørsted, Vestas Wind and Fresenius Medical Care.

Data releases include U.K. BRC retail sales and Spanish unemployment data.

— Holly Ellyatt

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