These countries have the most at stake as the U.S. heads to the polls

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These countries have the most at stake as the U.S. heads to the polls

Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, and *********** presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump.

Scott Olson | Bill Pugliano | Getty Images

The world is watching the U.S. presidential election as voters go to the polls Tuesday, but the vote is more consequential for some countries.

For some nations, the vote could make the difference between war and peace, stability and volatility, or prosperity or economic weakness. That situation is even more pronounced for Ukraine, whose territorial integrity could even be at stake.

Here we take a look at some of the countries with the most to win or lose from the election whoever enters the White House, be it *********** former President Donald Trump or Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris.

China

China is undoubtedly the ******* States’ biggest economic rival, and the enmity shows little sign of waning, whoever becomes the next U.S. president.

Trump has already threatened to revive a trade war that began during his first term in office, in which he imposed $250 billion worth of tariffs on ******** imports. Trump defended the measure as a way of reducing a yawning trade deficit with China, and to boost ********* jobs and competitiveness.

China’s President Xi Jinping and then U.S. President Donald Trump at a working session on the first day of the G20 summit in Hamburg, northern Germany, on July 7, 2017.

Patrick Stollarz | AFP | Getty Images

Russia and Ukraine

With its ongoing war with Russia, and Kyiv largely reliant on foreign military aid to enable it to keep fighting, Ukraine will be watching the election closely, as will Moscow.

It’s widely agreed that a Trump administration and hard-line Republicans would be far more hostile toward granting Ukraine more military aid, significantly inhibiting its ability to continue to ****** back against Russia.

Ukrainian soldiers prepare a vehicle adapted to ***** helicopter shells as the Russia-Ukraine war continues in the direction of Toretsk, Ukraine, Aug. 19, 2024.

Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

Trump has also boasted he could end the war in 24 hours if elected, signaling that he would pull the plug on Ukraine funding in order to force it into a negotiated settlement with Russia. That would likely mean the relinquishing of almost 20% of its territory in the south and east that’s currently occupied by Russian forces.

Choosing to continue to ****** without U.S. support could mean Ukraine loses even more land, however. The U.S. election for Ukraine is, therefore, an existential one.

“The U.S. election may well force the hand of the Ukrainians, as a Trump win will immediately lead to a change in ********* policy orientation and much more direct pressure for Kyiv to negotiate. Which means the Ukrainians may soon have to decide if they want to break from their most important military supporter or not,” Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group, said in emailed comments Monday.

Russia’s President Vladimir ****** overseeing military exercises known as “Center-2019” at a ******* range Donguz in the Orenburg region of Russia on Sept. 20, 2019.

Alexei Nikolsky | Sputnik | Alexei Nikolsky | Kremlin via Reuters

It’s likely that even a Kyiv-friendly administration under Harris, who has pledged to continue supporting the war-torn nation, could struggle to pass more financial support for Ukraine, depending on which party dominates Congress.

Harris said a future administration of hers would support Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” but neither she nor Washington has clearly defined what that statement means, what a Ukrainian victory looks like, or whether there is a limit to U.S. aid.

******* and Iran

The Middle East, however, is an area in which Trump’s and Harris’ foreign policy positions might be more aligned — both candidates pledged continued U.S. support for ******* as it pursues Iranian proxies, the militant groups ****** and Hezbollah in Gaza and Lebanon, respectively,

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Iran has threatened to retaliate against *******’s large-scale missile strikes on the country’s military facilities last month, meaning that a cycle of ****-for-tat exchanges between the adversaries could continue into the fall.

Trump recently cast himself as a “protector” of *******, promoting his past support for the country at the ********-********* Council summit in September and suggesting that ******* faces “total annihilation” if he isn’t elected, without backing up the claim. He also caused a stir by telling the audience that “anybody who’s ******* and loves being ******* and loves ******* is a fool if they vote for a Democrat.”

*********** presidential nominee former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at the ******** ********* Council National Summit at the Washington Hilton on Sept. 19, 2024.

Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Trump gained popularity in ******* during his first term in office after breaking with decades of U.S. tradition by formally recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of *******. He also officially recognized the disputed Golan Heights area of the country as being under the sovereignty of *******, garnering further praise.

A poll conducted last week by the 

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found that almost 65% felt that Trump would be better for ******** interests, far above the 13% who felt Harris would be better. Just over 15% said there was no difference between the two candidates, while 7% say they didn’t know.

Harris has been

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after her criticism of the country’s military strategy, saying the loss of life in Gaza in the last year was “devastating” and “heartbreaking.”

Harris has tried to dispel the Republicans’ characterization of her as anti-*******,

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that she she would “always stand up for *******’s right to defend itself and I will always ensure ******* has the ability to defend itself,” as well as deploring ******’ Oct. 7 attacks last year.

As for Iran,

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, with the potential for Trump to give the greenlight to ******** Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike Iran’s nuclear sites — a move vetoed by Biden — conduct targeted assassinations, and reimpose his “maximum pressure policy” through more sanctions on its oil industry.

Harris, meanwhile, is seen as far more likely to continue Biden’s foreign policy stance if she wins office, to de-escalate tensions. She said herself in late October that her message to Iran after *******’s latest strikes would be, “do not respond” and that “there must be a de-escalation in the region.”

U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks after Iran launched around 200 missiles on *******, at the , on Oct. 1, 2024.

Brendan Smialowski | AFP | Getty Images

Ambassador Mitchell B. Reiss, distinguished fellow at the Royal ******* Services Institute think tank, commented Monday that a Harris administration would not deviate too much from its current course.

“We do not know her world view, her policy preferences, even her choices for senior Cabinet positions.  My best guess is that President Harris would largely continue Joe Biden’s foreign policy, prioritising good relationships with allies and friends, and placing a heavy emphasis on diplomacy,” Reiss said.

“What would a second Trump term look like? Here, we have a better idea.  We already know that Trump views the world more in personal and transactional terms than in strategic terms. 

He is skeptical about U.S. commitments to allies and sending U.S. troops overseas — he is not committed in the same way that previous presidents have been to the traditional role the U.S. has played in constructing and leading the ******** international order that has brought us so much peace and prosperity since WW2,” Reiss noted.

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#countries #stake #U.S #heads #polls

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